Newspaper degrowth: Reason to worry?

By Ananya Saha

Is the print market looking at bad times ahead? The recent IRS figures do compel one to think on those lines. Most of the print categories, including national and regional publications, have registered declining AIRs. Print Media witnessed a growth of 0.8 percent CAGR from 2012 Q2 to 2012 Q4. Though an increase, it is the least when compared to other media during the same period: TV (5.2%), Cable and Satellite (8.9%), Radio (1.9%), Cinema (11.6%), and Internet (24.2%). The 0.8 percent growth seems much less when literacy has increased at 3.7 percent CAGR during the said period.

TOP 10 PUBLICATIONS

Top 10 Language Dailies (AIR numbers; All figures in ‘000)

 

The cause

Sundeep Nagpal, Founder-Director of Stratagem Media, blames the decline on new media. Unsurprised by the degrowth he said, “Time has caught up with print media. Not-so-young people have been hooked onto tablets since nobody sees value in print media. I am not surprised by the figures.”

A S Raghunath, senior print media brand consultant based in New Delhi NCR, disagreed and said, “The degrowth that one interprets on the basis of a quarter is not right. There is always a seasonality associated with print, and hence one should not look only at quarterly figures. There are seasons like monsoons or June-July when readership drops since people travel due to school holidays, or during exams etc.” According to him, due to new publications in a certain language, the universe of readers does migrate or changes. “According to the CAGR of one year, print has grown by one percent, and this is good news.” The worry should only be when the readers of a certain language decrease.

English dailies have added 3.38 lakh readers in the last one year, and smaller dailies that have entered new regions have gained readers. In the past one year, the reigning leader The Times of India has lost readers while Hindustan Times has added readers. Hindi dailies have added 9.70 lakh readers in the last one year. Assamese, Oriya, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada dailies have added readers to its universe. However, Malayalam has lost the biggest chunk of 8.44 lakh readers in the last one year. The Bengali market, which saw the entry of TOI’s regional paper Ei Samay and ABP’s Ei Bela, has lost 5.16 lakh readers. “The reason could be the entry of new players or disenchantment with the existing dailies. Once the IRS figures of Ei Samay are out, only then would the reason be ascertained,” reasoned Mr Raghunath.

One can say that new publications make the readers migrate from one product to another in a certain language universe but the losing readers is definitely a cause to worry. “For regional newspapers, the newer generation is not adapting to it. For them, news is not to be found in print or language paper. Obviously, there is a problem,” remarked Mr Nagpal.

But Mr Raghunath is positive despite the figures. He maintained, “Major languages are doing well. For the languages that are losing readers, it is because the readers are migrating to newer platforms. News consumption, per se, has not gone down. News media cannot be threatened, individual platforms can be threatened.”

Are the advertisers losing interest?

The traditional media of print and TV has always managed to catch the fancy of an advertiser. While we are questioning the advertisers’ interest in internet and other new media, the loyalties to traditional media might also be undergoing a shift. Mr Nagpal reasoned, “Advertisers are also simultaneously moving to new medium since readers are moving. On the internet, ad dosage can be course-corrected according to usage. B2C believes in TV as a medium, so print loses out. Lots of categories are more internet-oriented. Hardly any e-commerce site has advertised in print.”

Targeting a certain TG on the internet might obviously seem more cost-efficient and would also deliver ROI than advertising in print, which costs much more. Also, with the penetration of new devices such as phablets, tablets, smartphone, the lure of advertising in print media is shifting. What also needs to be considered is, that most of the news and in-depth news analysis (similar to as seen in print) available over internet, is English-based, and the universe of regional and Hindi news sites is still very small.

Going forward

Can print media revert to the days of glory? When magazines and newpapers did not fear the onslaught of online media? When digital was not a challenge? “Whatever print media could do to resurrect itself it has done. Anything more does not have cost benefit attached to it. The print has done lots of new things such as circulation schemes et al but it has not resulted in anything positive, given that revenues for newspapers are ad-driven. I cannot imagine change how and why it would change,” said Mr Nagpal.

As Mr Raghunath sees it, the challenge for print is how to make news stand out for existing consumers and it is also a challenge for conventional journalists. While the signs do say that print media is facing tough times, the newer print publications are keeping the hope alive. Only if the degrowth story stops, will the picture be brighter.