In more than 25 years of observing the Indian media and entertainment industry closely, there has never been a period like the one we are in currently. Every mainline sector of the industry is going through a phase of stagnancy or descendancy. It is difficult to say if any of this will change anytime in a hurry.
The television industry has been struggling to hold on to pay subscribers. The drops are not sizeable in percentage terms. But in a country where more than 30% of the population still doesn’t have access to TV, growth should be a given. Instead, we are looking at stagnant numbers. Because BARC India hasn’t conducted a baseline study in a while, this data point is open to debate. On the revenue front, the EY-FICCI report projects positive revenue growth, but that’s a little hard to believe in the current scenario.
On the content front, big-ticket cricket is the only marquee property type that television has to show. Nothing on mainline Hindi GECs is in that league anymore.
Over the last couple of years, the popular narrative suggested streaming is the future, and television will slowly make way for it. But the streaming numbers paint a picture of their own. In our recently published OTT report, India’s digital video audience size went up by 14%, from 481 Mn to 547 Mn. But this entire growth comes from the AVOD segment, largely on the back of new audiences who have entered the category via YouTube and social media videos.
As new audiences enter, one would expect those already there to move to the next level. In case of OTT, this would mean from AVOD to SVOD. That hasn’t happened at all, and the total paid subscriptions seem to have frozen in time. Audiences outside the Top 15 cities are not keen to pay for OTT subscriptions, and the Top 15 cities have reached their saturation point post the pandemic.
The evident slowdown in content production makes the picture look gloomier. The number of originals on OTT this year may be a good 30-40% less than 2023. Next year could be even lower. Creators (producers, writers, directors) who were navigating multiple projects last year are now in sustenance mode.
The theatrical category is doing decent numbers, but matching last year’s box-office will be a tough ask. In any case, a handful of big films are driving the box-office, and the long tail has weakened considerably, leading to a lot of scepticism, and a general drop in the number of Hindi releases. We are currently in one such period, where there are no major releases for several weeks after Stree 2’s release on Independence Day.
The silver lining comes via positive signs on the larger consumer sentiment and demand in the country. Evidently, media advertising will ride on this sentiment. But that could be the only tangible positive for the Indian media industry currently.
Hopefully, there are positive developments round the corner, which will pleasantly surprise us. For now, the next few months may be those of wait and watch.