MxMIndia

Category: INDRANI SEN

  • Coming up: a win-win proposition for viewers as well as channel owners in the post Covid-19 scenario, writes Indrani Sen

    The Silent Coup by Prasar Bharati

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    In February 2019, post TRAI’s NTO, big broadcasters had pulled out their Hindi mass entertainment channels from DD Free Dish which subsequently led to loss of viewership, weekly GRPs and ad revenue for those channels. The four big broadcasters, who submitted fresh bid invitation for vacant MPEG-2 slots by Prasar Bharati and won the e-auction held on June 2, 2020, must be sighing in relief now after getting five channels back on DD Free Dish. With effect from June 10, 2020, DD Dish TV subscribers would be able to view Star Utsav, Sony Pal, Zee Anmol, Colors Rishtey and Zee Anmol Cinema. It is definitely a win-win proposition for viewers as well as the channel owners in the post Covid-19 scenario.

     

    Considering that these channels were earlier earning on an average 100 times more that the average carriage fee of Rs 6 to 8 crore paid per annum to DD Free Dish and most of them lost 50% + of their ad revenue after pulling out from DD Free Dish, it is no wonder that they have all boarded back the DD Free Dish Band wagon at the first available opportunity. The five channels are in dire need of restoring their ad revenues in the post-Lockdown stage and cannot do without the viewership numbers which DD’s free-to-air platform promises to add. It is a silent coup by Prasar Bharati for making DD Free Dish an essential part for the survival and growth of these private channels.

     

    In most of the statistical analyses of subscribers of DTH providers, DD Free Dish is not included which makes the advertising and media Industry forget about its existence. While Doordarshan does not have the built in mechanism to measure the growth of DD Free Dish connections, estimates available from government sources as well as private consultancy firms unanimously agree that DD Free Dish is the leading DTH service provider in India.

     

    On June 23, 2019 at a programme to launch distribution of DD Free Dish TV set top boxes in Kashmir, Union Minister for Information and Broadcasting Prakash Javadekar claimed that (https://www.indiantelevision.com/dth/dth-operator/dd-free-dish-has-35-crore-subscribers-prakash-javadekar-190623) Doordarshan was the biggest DTH service provider in India with 3.5 crore (35 million) subscribers of DD Free Dish.  He further claimed that there are total 5.5 crore (55 million) DTH connections in India. The 2019 FICCI-EY report estimated 30 million subscribers for DD Free Dish and predicted that it would cross the 50 million mark in near future.

     

    It is evident from the activity related to DD Free Dish on various private e-commerce sites that their business is doing well. From the sale of DD Free Dish set-top boxes on Amazon (https://www.amazon.in/STC-DD-free-Dish-Set-Top/dp/B07FNKDGGC ) to installation of DD Free antenna on Indiamart (https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/d-d-free-dish-antenna-installation-5874029873.html) to sale of remote  on Flipkart (https://www.flipkart.com/mase-remote-dd-free-dish-controller/p/itmfdcbspgtjqmgg) , e-commerce sites are doing brisk business due to the popularity of the DD Free Dish.

     

    DD Free Dish is available in Ku-Band on GSAT-15 (at 93.5°E). It has been upgraded from time to time. The number of channels available increased from 80 to 104 in 2019, of which 26 channels are reserved for Doordarshan. Currently 104 SDTV channels along with 40 radio channels of AIR are available to the subscribers. DD Free Dish has been the greatest contribution which Prasar Bharati has made to broadcasting in India since the satellite TV’s invasion from the sky and privatisation of TV channels. If the set top box for DD Free Dish can be made technically enabled to receive WiFi signals then a new vista of media consumption will open to the vast audiences belonging to  “Bharat”.

     

     

  • Elsewhere in the world too, there has been a decline of average time spent with digital audio in 2020, writes Indrani Sen

    Has the Lockdown diverted audio streaming to video?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    During this decade, the listening habits of consumers have been steadily moving to online platforms. The demand for vernacular content consumption helped popular music streaming giants to establish their apps in India and benefitted the homegrown apps. At present, the main players in the Indian market are Times Internet-owned Gaana, JioSaavn, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Prime Music, Spotify, Google Play Music and Airtel Wynk.

     

    The consumption of digital audio has been growing steadily from music streaming to podcasts. One would have thought that the coronavirus pandemic would further increase digital audio streaming, but it reality it has turned out to be different.

     

    In one of the earlier reports released jointly by BARC and Nielsen, it was reported that both users per week and time spent by users per week for audio streaming have been going down across metros and non-metros. While the research agency attributed the decline to travelling coming to a halt, informal research showed that people staying at home preferred to see music videos than listen to audio tracks of music.

     

    Source: Deep Dive into content and advertising consumption during COVID 19, 23rd April, 2020

     

    This trend has been seen across the world with www.emarketers.com  reporting on audio streaming getting diverted to video streaming in UK and US during Coronavirus lockdown resulting in decline of average time spent with digital audio in 2020.

     

    In UK, where steady gains were made till recently in digital audio consumption, www.emarketer.com has predicted a zero growth among the adult population in 2020. The picture in the US is broadly similar, though with time spent among adults declining only by a single percentage point. (https://www.emarketer.com/content/in-the-us-and-uk-audio-streaming-has-diverted-to-video-during-coronavirus-lockdown). April 2020 data from Nielsen Music as reported in the article, found that compared to an eight-week pre-Coronavirus baseline, audio music streaming volumes in the US were down by 6.2% in the week ending March 19 and by 9.2% in the week ending March 26. Music video streaming on the other hand increased by 9.3% and by 13.4%, respectively during the same two weeks. It is likely that a similar analysis in India will show similar trends during Covid-19.

     

    Source: Coffee-With-Comscore-India-JUN2020

     

    The Comscore Report of June 2020 estimated  the number of Unique Visitors (UVS) for top entertainment sites and apps in India. Among the music steaming apps, Jio Saavan had highest number of Unique Visitors followed  by Gaana Music. Hotstar has almost double the number of UVS of  Jio Saavan. An informal check with the audio streaming companies further revealed that both their Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) have been going down staedily. They are now shifting their focus to increasing their subscription revenue, which currently has a miniscule share of their revenue.

     

    The question which is currently haunting the audio streaming industry is if this shift to video streaming from audio steaming is a temporary phenomenon which will disappear with the pandemic or is it going to be a lasting effect which will adversely affect their future business plans? As education, trade and commerce grapple with the manifestation of the ‘new normal’ status, it can be safely guessed that the current trend is not a short-term affair. Unlocking of the economy will probably slow down the rate of diversion from audio streaming to video streaming, but it would not bounce back to the pre-Covid-19 scenario.

     

  • Indian advertisers will follow global trends and podcast will emerge as an additional advertising option in the next

    Podcast: The Crawling Baby is Walking Now!

     

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Our students at Symbiosis Institute of Media & Communication have been surprising us with their online co-curricular activities ever since we opened our campus virtually. Recently, we noticed a keen interest among them to use and explore podcasts.

     

    The Public Relations students of PR Club have started an initiative of regular podcast using Spotify Live on “PR in Post Covid World” from July 2020 and are inviting various senior people from PR industry for featuring in the podcasts. Media Management students of MM Club organised a panel discussion on “Growing podcast culture in the audio streaming industry” and invited three bright young professionals, Ishani Dasgupta of Jio Saavan, Kavita Rajwade of IVM Podcast and Daniel Fenandes, a stand-up comedian and SIMC alumnus to share their perspectives with the students.

     

    Encouraged by the students’ interest, I was trying to update myself on podcast in India during last week when www.emarketers.com came up with an interesting article on podcast adspending in the US on August 4, 2020. “Podcast listenership in the US has been soaring in recent years and advertising dollars are following…… By the end of 2020, podcast ad spending in the US will reach $782.0 million, up 10.4% from last year, giving it a 21.0% share of the US digital radio ad market. And in 2021, spending will jump nearly 45% to $1.13 billion.” (https://www.emarketer.com/content/us-podcast-ad-spending-surpass-1-billion-next-year?ecid=NL1009).

     

    The term “podcast” was first used in February 2004 by combining “iPod” and “broadcast” by Ben Hammersley, a Guardian columnist and BBC journalist. The term was coined before Apple introduced its formal support for podcasting to the iPod, or launched its iTunes software. Apple rolled out iOS 8, a standalone ‘Podcast’ app in 2014, which accelerated the process of growth in podcasting.

     

    Today, many podcasts can be downloaded free; some are underwritten or sponsored by organisations with the inclusion of advertisements. Advertising, subscription, licensing content and content generation as a service are the revenue generation models in podcasting.  Lately, many people have made business ventures in the area of podcasting supported by combination of a paid subscription model and advertising.

     

    Podcasting in India began around 2005 with Indicast launched by Abhishek Kumar and Aditya Mhatre and caught up very fast with younger people as a verbal storytelling platform. Within a year, the number of podcasters rose to nearly 3000 in India and since then has been growing at a steady pace. Though China and the USA are globally most advanced podcast markets, it is estimated that India is on its way to become one of the top five podcast markets. Google indicates similar trends by observing that India is one of the top five countries using its podcast app.

     

    In India, there is a definite demand for local, Indianised content and podcasters are looking at audio-streaming as the new battleground. Industry experts agree that Indian podcasting may see exponential growth in both audiences and content during the next few years, making it an independent, economically viable standalone media.

     

    “As of December 2019, 40 million Indian internet users have listened to podcasts in India….this market is just one small fraction of the bigger OTT video and music streaming industry.” claimed an article mapping the Indian podcast market released on April 14, 2020 (https://inc42.com/features/mapping-the-market-indias-podcast-landscape/). Another article published in The Hindu Businessline on May 22, 2020 wrote about five home grown apps for podcasting in India.  (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/five-homegrown-podcast-apps-for-indian-listeners/article31650585.ece).

     

    The article in The Hindu Businessline observed: “…compared to western markets, India has all the right growth variables. The emergence of digital marketing to grab more users and revenue, entry of celebrities in podcast creation (Neha Dhupia, Kunal Kapoor, Kalki Koechlin and others); entry of foreign players (Spotify, Audible, Apple Podcasts, Audioboom and others); adoption of podcasts as a content stream by media companies (Hindustan Times, BBC, NPR etc.) as well as local music streaming platforms such as JioSaavn, Gaana have all played a crucial role in the growth of podcasts in the Indian market.”

     

    As of today, it is estimated that we have 40+ players, including local and international apps as well as aggregators in our podcast market. In the post Covid era of online teaching, podcast is being considered as an alternative platform for teaching. We can safely assume that Indian advertisers will follow the trends in US and other markets and podcast will emerge as an additional advertising option in the next decade.

     

     

  • Will see a negative AdEx growth this year as we had seen in 2009, wonders Indrani Sen

    The Ripple Effect of Coronavirus

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    A lot has happened in the last one week, when we speculated about how Covid-19 might affect the AdEx in 2020. As India fights against all odds to stop the accelerated outbreak of the virus through community transmission with the entire country is facing partial to total lockdown, there is no doubt that our economy will be badly affected like many other developed and developing countries. So, along with the rest of the world, India will be getting into a severe recession for the rest of the year. The point we need to speculate, will there just be a dip in the growth rate of AdEx or will we see a negative growth as we saw in 2009?

     

    The international financial crisis of 2008 which originated in the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US and led to a severe recession in many countries over 2008 and 2009 also affected the Indian economy and we saw first a dip in the AdEx in 2008 and then a negative growth in 2009. However, AdEx recovered quickly from that recession and we saw a healthy growth in 2010.

     

    Source: Pitch Madison Media Advertising Outlook 2015

     

    The ripple effect of Coronavirus is going to create an employment crisis across the globe and India will not be an exception. We were already at a high unemployment situation before this crisis hit us. With industries experiencing forced shutdowns, many are asking their employees on go on leave without pay or with truncated pay.  Employees who work on the basis of contracts, as per terms and conditions of the contracts are often not paid unless they report to work and in the present situation are likely to lose financially. Financial loss will be experienced by the lower end of self-employed workers (Ola/ Uber drivers, auto drivers, rickshaw pullers, plumbers, electricians, etc.) as well as the daily wage earners. MSME sector which is known as the engine of growth and employment in India will also take a big hit. A combined effect of these muted wage or loss of wage will lead to decrease in consumer demand. In addition, there will be a disruption in the supply chain also due to temporary closure of production, lack of transport for distributing the goods, etc.  These changes in demand and supply will have adverse effect on the marketing and advertising budget forcing the advertisers to curtail their expenditure.

     

    Circulation of our print media so far has not been affected like global print media many of who have stopped the printing of hard copies, thanks to the last mile delivery by newspapers delivery persons and hawkers as against the sale through news-stands in developed countries. Indian newspapers managed to develop a schedule of work from home for their reporters and a system of rotation for other essential staff in order to reduce the number of employees present on their premises.

     

    The ‘Janata Curfew’ on March 22 followed by lockdown of some cities/ districts from March 23, may force newspapers also to take a call regarding their production as the distributors/ hawkers and the delivery boys will also get hit by the lack of local transport. Probably, newspapers from second-tier cities under lockdown will be less affected than the newspapers from metros facing a similar situation. So, some Indian newspapers may experience temporary closure and fluctuations in their circulation and readership and subsequently lose ad revenue as supplies of goods dwindle due to logistical issues related to production, transportation, etc. and consumer demand drops.

    There is going to be an increase in TV viewership, particularly the viewership of news and entertainment channels as people try to stay abreast with Covid-19 related news and entertain themselves with serials and movies during their stay at home. With all production of Film and TV industry closed till March 31, there is a chance that the serials will run out of their banked episodes which have been already shot and canned. Lack of new episodes will affect the viewership of serials adversely. Even if the viewership of GEC and Movie channels increase, ad revenue may go down due to demand and supply related issues as mentioned above in relation to print.

     

    Sports Channels are going to lose both viewership and advertising revenue with cancellation of sporting events and their telecast. As TV still accounts for the major share of our ADEX, the extent of loss of TV revenue will determine the fate of AdEx in 2020.

    Contributions of radio, cinema and outdoor to the overall AxEx are much less than Print and TV. However, ad revenue of FM radio stations will be affected as listening to car radio goes down with people being forced to stay at home. In the US, Nielsen is working on special analysis as well as a quick survey to give the advertisers some idea about how Covid-19 has affected radio listenership. Our Radio Audience Measurement is already affected by lack of financial support from the sector and it may not be possible for them to react in a similar way (http://www.insideradio.com/free/nielsen-to-release-study-on-covid–impact-on-radio/article_6c1e0246-6a81-11ea-8ab4-17d484c1eb56.html).

     

    Many of radio advertising deals are linked with on ground activities and consumer activations and radio ad revenue will see a decline due to curb on all such activities. With closure of malls and cinema halls, cinema will lose the ticket sales money as well as advertising revenue. Traffic on the roads, stations, airports will dwindle due to lock down of cities, social distancing and work from home which will have a negative impact on OOH advertising.

     

    Usage of digital as well as social media will increase during this troubled days as people are trying to get constant update on the pandemic, keep in touch with their friends and relatives while staying at home and opt for some entertainment of their choice on OTT platforms. There is a good chance that advertisers will try to utilise this opportunity by stepping up their budget on digital and social media till the ripple effect of Covid-19 force them to stop advertising.

     

    So far, we have seen only an estimate for loss by events and experiential industry which has been estimated as Rs 3000 crores with ten million jobs at risk which was published on March 17, 2020. (http://everythingexperiential.businessworld.in/article/Loss-to-events-experiential-industry-in-India-estimated-at-Rs-3000-Cr-due-to-COVID-19-ten-million-jobs-at-risk/16-03-2020-186335/). Other media sectors have not yet made any forecast of their probable losses.

     

    The ripple effect of Coronavirus will be directly proportional to the number of days that India takes to control the spread of the virus. In some European countries currently experiencing community transmission, economic analysts are already forecasting that at least 12 to 16 weeks period will be required to curb the virus. If India gets into a similar situation, it may take us longer to curb the virus given the expanse of our country and irresponsible behaviour of our citizens. In that case AdEx will end up with a negative growth like we experienced in 2009.

     

     

  • Indrani Sen scans the mid-year review of the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020

    Dramatic changes in Indian Ad Industry

     

     

    Editor’s Note: The Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 is a significant industry milestone held every year. Although MxMIndia belongs to the same space as the Exchange4media group-owned Pitch magazine, we believe the report is an industry property and are glad that the two entities – Pitch and Madison – are doing this for many years. Our report very clearly acknowledges the association of both Pitch and Madison, and have hence not called it the Madison Advertising Report, but the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020, as it should be.

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    The Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 presented its mid-year review yesterday and revealed the extent of damage done by the pandemic to Indian ad industry.

     

    A comparison with 2019 shows that the overall AdEx lost INR 14,000 crore and declined by 39% in H1, the first half of 2020 due to the effects of Covid-19. A break up of the first half by two quarters showed that Q1 had an 8% decline in the overall AdEx in the pre-Lockdown period due to the slowing down of Indian economy. In Q2, during the complete lockdown in April and May, the overall AdEx dropped into almost a bottomless pit. The fall was partially arrested with the unlocking starting in phases from June 1, but overall AdEx still declined by 65% in Q2.

     

    Citing the trends of recovery of TV and Digital advertising in June and July, PMAR has predicted 60% -72% recovery of overall AdEx in H2, the second half of 2020 boosted by the festive season, revival of IPL, big ticket TV shows like KBC and Big Boss. The estimated recovery of AdEx in H2, is expected to arrest de-growth of overall AdEx in 2020 and contain it within a range of -14% to -18% as shown in the chart below.

     

    Source: Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midterm Review

     

    While TV and Digital are set on getting back to normalcy, Print is lagging far behind and Radio, Cinema and OOH are yet to show signs of regaining normalcy. The report has refrained from calculating a specific growth number in the forecast for 2020, instead has indicated a range for the AdEx value of each sector as well as the overall Ad Industry as reflected in the above chart. PMAR needs to be congratulated on their commendable efforts of mapping the effects of COVID 19 on Indian Ad Industry in the current situation.

     

    As per the usual format of reporting, PMAR has presented a detailed picture of TV, Digital, Print, Radio, OOH and Cinema and an analysis of advertisers active during the first two quarters of 2020 across different media. Among traditional media TV suffered the least damage with TV AdEx dropping by -43% in H1 ‘20 and retained 38% share of the advertising pie. Print AdEx dropped by 51% in H1’20 and it had to concede the number two position to Digital in terms of share in the advertising pie which dropped to 25%.  Adex dropped respectively by 52% in Radio, 55% in OOH and 52% in cinema in H1 ’20.  Digital had only a minor contraction of just 7% in H1 ’20 and its share in the advertising pie went up to 30%.

     

    As far advertisers are concerned, more than half disappeared from Print and Radio during the first half of 2020. TV also lost a quarter of its regular advertisers. 13 new advertisers entered the list of Top 50 advertisers which accounted for 31% of the overall AdEx. HLL topped the list with INR 1300 to 1500 crores advertising in H1 ’20. A wide gap was noticed among HLL and Procter & Gamble who ranked second with an ad spend of INR 250 to 350 crores.

     

    The Indian ad industry has never experienced such a decline. If we look at the last two decades, we find the industry growing in leaps and bounds during the first 8 years of this century with year on year double digit growth. In earlier PMAR reports we saw the growth rate of overall AdEx dropping to -8.9% in 2009 from 18.9% in 2008 as the international financial crisis triggered off by the sub-prime mortgage problem in the US led to recession in many countries and cast a shadow also on our economy. However, the overall industry recovered quickly with a whopping 27.9% growth in 2010. During the current decade there has been ups and downs in the performance of the overall AdEx but we never saw actual de-growth of our Ad Industry. According to PMAR 2020 Midyear Review, COVID 19 may set the industry back by 2 to 3 years. It is unlikely that the industry will recover as quickly as it did in 2010. A lot depends on how the government can control further spread of the pandemic and how soon vaccine for coronavirus can be available for Indian masses.

     

  • After the 7-yr delay, TRAI could’ve waited for normalcy to return before enforcing the cap, writes Indrani Sen

    12 minute ad cap may turn to 12 death nails for FTA channels

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    The right thing at a wrong time is a wrong thing.

    Taking liberty with the words of Charles Dickens, one can say this is not the best of times; this is probably the worst of times in the twenty-first century when we are fighting with the deadly Coronavirus, the total number of COVID 19 positive cases and death caused by the pandemic are going up every day in India, the Indian economy is in recession and Media & Advertising Industry has just seen a huge drop of 65% in advertising revenue in Q2 of 2020 (Source: Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midyear Review). What a time for TRAI to press for the 12% ad cap on Television by pushing for a hearing of the case at the Delhi High Court!

     

    Dust has not yet settled on NTO 2.0. Indian TV Industry and the Regulating body have been discussing the possible implications of implementation of NTO2.0 over the last few months. It has come as a rude shock to the TV industry that TRAI has pushed the Delhi High Court for an early hearing of the case on 12 min cap per hour on television advertising. The final hearing has now been fixed on 28th September, 2020. If Indian television industry is forced to accept the 12% ad cap during this difficult time, then many TV channels, particularly the free to air channels and news channels may be forced to close their business.

     

    Let us take a quick look at the effect of the pandemic on TV advertising. The Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midyear Review released last week has shown that against a 65% loss of total advertising in Q2 2020, loss of TV advertising was 61%. The chart below shows the TV advertising market in April, May, June TV advertising revenue over last 3 years. Across all categories, advertisers have spent less on TV during the first half of the year with 25% of the regular advertisers not spending on TV advertising. Even after the boosting of as spend in the second half of the year due to the festive season, IPL, big ticket properties on TV like Big Boss, KFC, the TV industry is expected to end the year 2020 with 12% to 17% de-growth.

     

    Source: Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midyear Review

     

    Based on consumer complaints in 2012, the TRAI first announced the regulation on 12% Ad cap in 2013. I wrote an article on 12th October, 2015 here comparing the systems of regulations on TV advertising across various countries (https://www.mxmindia.com/2015/10/mediasense-by-indrani-sen-to-cap-it-all/) and requesting TRAI to look beyond the regulatory system of UK to other countries across the world. Since 2015, some of the countries cited as example in my article, have changed their own regulatory frame works and have made it more user friendly for the TV channels. For example in Europe instead of 20% of advertising in every hour, it has been relaxed to overall 20% advertising between 7.00 to 23.00 hours with broadcasters’ own promotions, sponsors’ announcements and product placements not counting under the 20% stipulated time.

     

    As per the last FICCI EY report we had 918 TV channels in 2019 of which 65% were free to air channels.  Out of the registered TV channels in India 386 (42%) are news channels of which many are in the FTA category. These channels depend solely on advertising revenue and will be really badly hit if the 12% ad cap per hour is imposed at this unprecedented time. The eco system of Doordarshan’s Free Dish will also be affected in the process and the viewers will end up getting a raw deal in terms of the channels available on the Free Dish.

     

    It is obvious that it is not possible to attract advertising for the repeat shows after 12 midnight till 6am in the morning when the country goes to sleep. Many TV channels have already petitioned for changing the ad cap per hour to an overall ad cap per day. By relaxing the 12 min per hour cap to 12 minute overall cap during 24 hours, TRAI can allow the TV channels the flexibility to distribute the total commercial time of 288 minute per day in a more profitable manner. Alternatively, TRAI’s purpose of providing better content to the consumers would be self defeating as consumers will get less variety of content with many FTA channels going off the air or will have to pay additional cost for viewing better content with more established GEC channels introducing more ‘pay & view’ content.

     

    Finally, there is a time for taking all actions. If a right action is taken at a wrong time, then it can become a wrong action. After procrastination of 7 years, TRAI can surely wait for normalcy to return to our economy at large and the media and advertising industry in particular before enforcing the proposed ad cap on TV advertising.

     

     

  • There has been much speculation on how much revenue BCCI, the eight franchisees and Star India will be able to earn this year given it will be held away from home turf

    IPL 13: Who will Gain & Who will Lose?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Ever since BCCI announced that IPl 13 will be held this year in the UAE from September 19 to November 10, there has been a lot of speculation in the media about how much revenue BCCI, the eight franchisees and Star India would be able to earn through this high value cricket tournament held away from home turf.

     

    It is still a matter of speculation, but one aspect is clear that BCCI’s scheduling of IPL 13 matches scheduled during evening primetime will deprive many GEC channels from the revenue which they have been expecting to get from the festive seeson advertising. As per various industry estimates, 40 to 45% of total annual advertising revenue is generated during the festive season spreading from September to December with bulk of it spent by Diwali every year.

     

    Revival of mega programmes like KBC, Big Boss, Indian Idol and Dance India Dance is expected to give IPL some competition and to help the big players Sony, Colors and Zee to get a good share of the TV advertising budget of festive season, but many other channels will not be that lucky. BCCI has also planned for maximising its revenues during the festive season as after October 25, 2020 there will be no afternoon match and all matches will be scheduled at 7.30 pm IST. With the final scheduled on November 10, only a small window of  four days before Diwali is left for other channels to encash on their share of festive spends. Had BCCI scheduled the IPL 13 a month later from October 2020, then probably the picture could have been different.

     

    Let us now look at the three main interested parties who have serious revenue tagets to be realised from IPL 13. The first is BCCI who earns the lion’s share of its annual budget every year from IPL. Apart from Rs 3270 crore which Star pays to BCCI every year for the TV and digital media rights, they were supposed to get Rs 440 crore from Vivo for title sponsorship, Rs 250 to Rs 300 crore for other associate sponsorships and another Rs 17 to Rs 20 crore from other sponsorships. After Vivo pulled out from the title sponsorship, BCCI got Dream 11 as a title sponsor for Rs 220 crores, at 50% discounted price of the earlier deal. BCCI shares 50% of the title sponsorship money with the eight franchisees by distributing the same among them and the revenue of the fanchisees has also been reduced as a result of this discounted deal. As per the experts’ views, BCCI’s revenue target from associate sponsorsips etc. are also expected to see a downward revision. BCCI will have to give a hefty fees to Emirates Cricket Board for holding the matches at UAE and their other logistical cost will also go up. A combination of all these factors will lead to a lower realisation of BCCI’s earlier revenue target from IPL 13.

     

    As far as the eight franchisees are concerned, each of them will lose out revenues from three sources. The first will be the loss from their share of title sponsorship which BCCI has sold at 50% lower value than expected earlier. The second will be the loss from gate revenue which used to be between Rs 22 to Rs. 28 crore per team from cricket grounds. The third will be from expected lower revenue of title sponsorship of each team under the current situation. Each team now anticipates to earn at least 15% to 20% less on the estimated the team title sponrship value of Rs. 50 to Rs. 75 crore (except Mumbai Indians which was looking at Rs 100 crore-plus) from title sponsorship before the pandemic struck.

     

    In addition, all of the franchisees will have to spend extra for the travel and accomodation cost of the players as well as creating arrangements for the bio-bubble and net practice at UAE. The combined effect of all the above is expected to result in a loss of Rs 80 to Rs 90 crore per franchisee. BCCI has already rejected the appeal for concessions in IPL 13 due to the pandemic made by the franchisees. (https://www.insidesport.co/ipl-2020-bccis-stern-no-to-ipl-franchises-demand-for-compensation/)

     

    The last but not the least of the three interested paries is Star India, the broadcaster holding the media rights of IPL for TV and Digital media. In Star India’s original plan for revenues to be earned over the contract period with BCCI, 2020 was supposed to be a crucial year when they had expected to replace earlier losses with profit. However, the pandemic changed their plans. An article published on July 4, 2020 by www.sportstar.thehndu.co referred to a statement made by Uday Shankar, the Star & Disney India Chairman to ET Now: “If there is one tournament where advertisers will put money, that is IPL but only if they have to put monies. The market has gone through massive shock. Whether it would recover enough to put thousand of crores worth of advertising in next 6-8 weeks is the real issue and we doubt that… I am not sure the market is ready to support the IPL with the same fervour…” (https://sportstar.thehindu.com/cricket/ipl-2020-postponed-future-star-india-uday-shankar-advertisers/article31986991.ece). He has obviously changed his mind since then as in a recent article in  https://www.timesnownews.com/sports/cricket/, he has been quoted as saying: “Our viewership of IPL on TV, as well as OTT platform, has grown year-on-year, and that will continue even this year…Also, for any company, which is looking at advertising, IPL provides the best and most-effective platform.”

     

    As per industry sources, Star is targeting at a revenue of Rs 3000 crore plus from IPL 13. There is difference in estimates on how much they earned from IPL 12. According to ET Prime, the revenue was Rs 2,100 crore in 2019, but some other sources peg the earnings around Rs 2500 crore.

     

    Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/prime/media-and-communications/ipl-2020-star-india-will-have-to-rework-its-strategy-to-hit-the-inr3000-crore-revenue-target/primearticleshow/77321586.cms?from=mdr?fromsrc=etprime

     

    Star India has already declared that there will be no reduction on the advertising tarif declared earlier which had a built in 20% hike over IPL 12. As per industry sources going rate for 10 second advertising is 12.5lakhs. Based on estimate of ET Prime, with a revenue target of Rs 3000 crores in IPL 13 Star is aiming for a growth of 43% over IPL 12, which semms to be highly ambitious. Based on the estimate that revenue from IPL 13 was around Rs 2500 crores, a 20% to 22% growth over last year will enable Star to achieve the revenue target of Rs. 3000 crores, which seems to be more realistic. There is already a prediction that viewership of IPL 13 will increase by 25% from IPL 12 which will help Star in marketing IPL.

     

    To sum up, the broadcaster seem to be on a good wicket as riding on the promise of 25% higher reach, they have a good chance of realising the target revenue for IPL 13. On the other hand, BCCI and the 8 franchisees will have to be contented with reducing their losses from IPL 13 held in UAE than a total loss of cancelling IPL 13 in 2020. The smaller TV channels across genres may be complete losers as many marketers suffering from the loss in sales and revenue over the first two quarters of 2020 and the slow rate of recovery in the third quarter, may not be able to extend their advertising budgets  for festive seasons beyond investing in IPL 13.

     

     

  • Younger adults are hooked on to streaming services, notes a DAN report, writes Indrani Sen

    How India’s Gen Z is addicted to Streaming

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Covid-19 has transformed the media consumption trends in India. Globally, streaming platforms gained in a big way since the pandemic struck and India is no exception. The report published by Dentsu Agies Network – “Now Streaming: The Indian Youth OTT Story” – is a study conducted among urban India’s Gen Z & Millennial reconfirms this trend. These trends could be reflecting behavioural changes of the two younger generations which are likely to last even after the cloud of pandemic shifts from the Indian sky. The highlights of the findings from the report are shown below:

    Source: https://dentsumarketing.cloud/dmcinsights.php

     

    As many as 74% of the respondents came from the Top 8 metros with 26% coming from rest of urban India. 47% of the respondents were male and 52.2% were female. 78.5% came from Gen Z (5 to 25 years) and 21.5% came from Millennials (25 to 39 years).  The report therefore cannot be taken as uniform trends across urban youths across India but trends which are visible among youths residing in the top 8 metros and mostly below 25 years of age. They are, however, the future targets of marketing and advertising in India.

     

    Average daily time spent in hours
    Gen Z Millennials
    On line Gaming 1.97 1.11
    Binge Watching 4.45 3.66

     

     

    Among the various OTT platforms, Amazon Prime and Netflix lead the pack, followed by Hotstar. The other OTT platforms are yet to build up significant presence among the Indian youths. Gen Z spends more time than Millennials both on gaming and binge watching on OTT platforms.

     

     

    The choice of genres by the two sections of youth explains the popularity of the top three platforms which offer more content as per their preference. Zee 5, Voot, Jio, Sony Liv, etc have less content to offer in the Comedy, Action, Thriller and Science Fiction genres. Amazon Prime, Netflix and Hotstar have also invested more in production of original content. However, the report has also shown that both in North and South India across different demographics the primary usage of OTT platforms were for viewing TV shows and movies.

     

    During the lockdown north Indian youths invested on an average in three OTT subscriptions than their counterparts in south India who invested on an average in two OTT subscriptions. The Gen Z invested on an average in 3 OTT subscriptions while Millennials invested in 2 OTT subscriptions during the same period. The report does not give details of the demographic profile of the sample, but we can safely assume that the sample was skewed towards higher SECs as indicated by higher spends on OTT subscription by Gen Z, most of whom would not have been financially independent and had to ask their parents for the subscription money. Obviously their parents were not financially affected due to the economic slowdown during the lockdown and could afford to indulge their children. The report therefore captures mainly the trends of OTT consumption of urban youths from 5 to 25 years age belonging mostly to NCCS A and the top 8 metros.

     

    The report has also captured that 73% have no concern about the content of the OTT platforms. The other 27% have stated obscene content, anti-national content, strong and bold language of the content as well as content hurting sentiments of religion/ caste as causes of concern related to OTT platforms. On the other hand all respondents had concerns about internet connections, pop-up ads and buffering related to steaming of the contents. Both Millennials and Gen Z have shown a clear preference for OTT services and believes that the positives factors outweigh the negatives.

     

     

    The report concludes that content distribution, attractive marketing, transitioning the gaming industry and personalisation are the key factors which is helping consumption of OTT platforms to dominate over consumption of traditional TV viewing. The analysis does not mention about the tie ups between OTT platforms and Telecom giants like Airtel, VI and Jio, a practice which began in 2017/ 2018 and has been continuing since then.

     

    As per the range of packages offered by the three telecom companies, it appears the leading OTT platforms do not believe in exclusive tie ups with any single telecom company and have created a level playing field for all the service providers by having tie ups with all of them. It seems this survey did not probe into this aspect of free subscription with mobile connection among the Gen Z and Millennials, most of whom would have been enjoying some such free benefits through a single sign in. The findings of the reports outweigh the apparent skewing of the sample and a few gaps and have provided all of us a crystal globe for gazing into the future of media consumption.

     

     

  • Indrani Sen hopes that adequate notice would be given to the industry for changing their ads as per the new guidelines

    Can ASCI Play A Role In Review of Surrogate Advertising?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    In the week before the last, the Consumer Affairs Ministry had issued a draft of the Central Consumer Protection Authority (Prevention of Misleading Advertisements and Necessary Due Diligence for Endorsement of Advertisements) Guidelines, 2020 requesting people to submit their comments and suggestions on the guidelines by September 18, 2020. As per industry estimates based on TAM Adex data, the size of total surrogate advertising in India is around Rs 700-800 crore per annum with 70% share of TV in the pie. The new draft guidelines, if enforced with immediate effect, may affect the post lockdown financial recovery of TV channels.

    Along with guidelines for endorsements, definitions for valid advertising, new rules for advertisements targeting children etc., the new guidelines clearly prohibit surrogate advertising — the practice of promoting banned products like liquor and tobacco by promoting another product under the umbrella of ‘Brand Extension’ unless the promotion of the said product advertised under the same brand name can be substantiated with certain proofs of its legitimacy. The legitimacy would be judged based on (a) if the new product is produced, distributed and sold in ‘reasonable quantities’ having regard to the scale of the advertising campaign in question, the media used, and the markets targeted and (b) do not have any direct or indirect indication of a banned product. While the guide lines do not give definition of ‘reasonable quantities’, the same allow for some concessions like advertisements wouldn’t be disqualified just for using similar branding of a banned product.

    The revised guideline issued by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting  last week, under rule number 7(2)(vih)(A) of Advertising Code in the Cable Television Network Rule 1994,  notifies that all such TV commercials  falling under the ‘Brand Extension’ of  banned products like cigarettes,  other tobacco products, wine, alcohol, liquor etc. will have to be first previewed by Central Board of Film Certification and certified as fit for consumption before any TV channel can broadcast the same. It is not very clear from the advisory if the legitimacy of the product will also be reviewed by the CBFC or if that would be done separately by the MIB before the advertiser invests in the production of the TV commercial. Traditionally, the Chairman and members of the CBFC are from the film and entertainment industry. The CEOs are usually selected from bureaucrats like Ravinder Bhakar, a 1999 batch officer of Indian Railway Stores Service (IRSS), who has taken over as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Central Board of Films Certification (CBFC) from March 2020.

    Can ASCI play an active role in this entire new process of decision making on surrogate advertising?  They would be in a far better position to judge the legitimacy of the product than the MIB or CBFC.       ASCI’s role has been acclaimed by various Government bodies including The Department of Consumer Affairs (DoCA), Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI), Ministry of AYUSH as well as the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB). In January 2017, the Supreme Court of India in its judgement affirmed and recognized the self-regulatory mechanism as an effective pre-emptive step to statutory provisions in the sphere of advertising content regulation for TV and Radio in India.

    I read a research paper ‘Surrogate Advertising or Brand Extension Advertising: A Need for Strict Norms’ authored by Prof. Neha Bansal in International Journal of Marketing & Financial Management, Vol. 2, Issue 1, Jan-Feb-2014 ISSN: 2348 –3954. Prof. Bansal presented in her paper a six point formula for developing and implementing strict norms:

    1. Developing an explicit plan of action.

    2. Code to differentiate between acceptable advertising from unacceptable advertising.

    3. Translucent laws for banning such kind surrogate promotion.

    4. More powers in hands of ASCI.

    5. Increase consumer awareness.

    6. Strict actions against those involved to set lesson for future wrong doers.

     

    The Consumer Affairs Ministry and the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting have taken steps in the right direction except involving ASCI in the process. ASCI can also explain to the ministry the need for having a two step approval process, first getting the legitimacy of the brand extension approved and then applying for the approval of the TV commercial to avoid the financial loss of investing in a TVC and then getting stuck at the approval stage on the legitimacy issues. ASCI can also  advise the government regarding the paper work needed for establishing the legitimacy of the products  as ‘non-surrogate’ and as genuine brand extension. We can only hope that good sense will prevail in the implementation of the new rules drafted by the government and adequate notice would be given to the industry for changing their advertising campaigns as per the new guidelines.

     

  • Indrani Sen looks deeper into the numbers in the KPMG M&E Industry Report 2020

    The Great Churning of the Media Cauldron

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Last week, KPMG published its M&E Industry Report 2020, six months after the FICCI EY Report on M&E Industry 2019 was published on March 27, 2020. KPMG had ample time to study the effect of Covid-19 on the M&E sector during the lockdown and the unlocking period before coming up with its final report by FY20 and its predictions for the next two years FY21 and FY 22.

     

    As we all have realised by now, 2020 is a milestone year in Indian M&E Industry, with digital and OOT emerging as the number 2 in the share of the overall industry size as well as in the share of advertising revenue. The KPMG report confirms the same and springs a surprise by predicting that in FY21 and FY22 Digital and OTT will become #1 in terms of share in advertising revenue, overtaking TV. As per the trends seen in western countries, this seismic shift was written on the cards, but we were definitely not expecting this shift to happen so soon. The pandemic COVID19 seems to have acted as a catalyst accelerating the process of change.  As a result, the KPMG Report 2020 predicts a great churning of the media cauldron over the next two financial years.

     

     

    As far as the overall industry size is concerned, TV is by far ahead of Digital & OTT as shown in the next chart, though the growth rate of TV is much lower than Digital & OTT. The absolute size (769 INR BN) of the TV industry in FY22 will be slightly below their size (778 INR BN) in FY20, while Digital & OTT will be growing year on year in their overall size. Print will take a big hit in FY21 with 39% de-growth and will recover hugely in FY22. However, like TV their overall size (296 INR BN) in FY 22 will be slightly below their size (306 INR BN) in FY20. Similar trends are reflected in case of Films, OOH, Radio and Music while Gaming shows a huge gain in size (143 INR BN) in FY22 from (90 INR BN) in FY20. Animation, VFX and post-production is the only sector which in FY22 (77 INR BN) will be much below the size in FY20 (101 INR BN), in spite of the recovery of the Film industry.

     

     

    The chart showing the share in advertising revenue represents a different picture with Digital & OTT predicted to overtake TV in FY21 and continuing in the #1 position in FY22. Print which had neck-and-neck share with Digital & OTT in FY20, is predicted to go down to the #3 position in FY21 and FY22. In FY21, the size of Print advertising (107 INR BN) will be less than half of the size of Digital & OTT advertising (223 INR BN). In spite of a growth of 73% in FY22 over FY21, Print advertising will be 106 INR BN less than Digital & OTT advertising in FY22. As per KPMG’s predictions, Films, OOH and Radio will also not be able to regain in FY22 the size of advertising revenue which they had in FY20, with Radio being the worst affected among the three media.

     

     

    All is not well for Digital & OTT as a comparison of the total industry size and the share of advertising revenue in the same both in FY21 and FY22 reflects a lack of growth in subscription revenue and an unhealthy dependence on advertising. In FY21 and FY22 the share of advertising revenue will be respectively 87% and 86% in Digital& OTT, which does not reflect the trend of growth in subscription. This is also contradictory to the findings of FICCI EY M&E Industry Report 2019 which showed that growth rate of subscription outpaced the growth rate of advertising led by digital media. The pandemic should have boosted the subscription growth which however is not getting reflected in the KPMG report.

     

    It is very difficult to compare the two reports on M&E Industry as FICCCI EY reports are based on calendar years and KPMG reports are based on financial years. However, at the time of the release of their report in Mach 2020, FICCI EY promised to review and revise their estimates for future. As and when the revised report of FICCI EY is released, we would be able to assess if similar shifts in the share of the advertising pie is also reflected there reconfirming the predictions made by KPMG and the churning of the media cauldron.

     

     

  • Indrani Sen refers to an emarketer.com study which providing A&M with deep insights

    Three Key Media Trends Sweeping the Pandemic-hit World

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Over the last couple of months, we have seen many surveys which have looked at the current level of global and local media revenue and its recovery path over the next two to three years. Most of these surveys have highlighted the bright picture looming at the end of the tunnel. Last week, I came across a survey released by www.emarketer.com which has focussed on three key media trends sweeping the pandemic hit world, providing the advertising and media industry with deep insights.

     

    On October 23, 2020 eMarketer released Global Media Intelligence Report for 2020, produced in collaboration with Starcom and GlobalWebIndex covering 42 major markets in the world with a focus on internet users’ engagement with digital and traditional media.

     

    The first trend observed in the study indicates that ownership of PCs and tablets are declining in many countries including India. “Between H1 2019 and H1 2020, ownership of desktops, laptops, and/or tablets declined most sharply in developing markets, including Brazil, China, Egypt, and India—all countries where the focus has long been on mobile devices and services. But the same trend appeared to a lesser degree in several other countries too, including France, Russia, Sweden, and the US.” This trend indicates that smartphones are consolidating their position as the primary screen across the pandemic hit world both in the developed as well as in the developing countries among the internet users. (https://www.emarketer.com/content/3-key-trends-shaping-media-landscape-this-year?ecid=NL1009)

     

    We already know that in India mobile phones are playing a crucial role in spreading digital media communication with more and more mobile-first internet users coming to the market. This study shows that while there has been hardly any change in the ownership of smartphones from HI2019 to H12020 as it is already near saturation level, the time spend on the device has gone up marginally. “96.0% of internet users ages 16 to 64 owned a smartphone in H1 2020—a figure unchanged since H1 2019. In addition, one in 10 respondents had a feature phone. Time spent with mobile devices averaged 3 hours, 37 minutes (3:37) per day, 1 minute more than in 2019.” Compared to 2019 the ownership percentage of PCs and tablets have come down from 72% to 54.2%, showing a significant decline. Comparatively, ownership of tablets was less affected with only a drop from 24.5% to 22.3%. Time spent by Indians with their PCs and tablets declined sharply from by 45 minutes per day (https://www.emarketer.com/content/global-media-intelligence-2020-india).

     

    The second trend emphasises on digital video which continues to close its gap with broadcast TV.  In the western countries the share of internet users watching free or paid for digital video have already surpassed the share watching live TV or are almost equal to it. In India, it will take a longer time for a similar trend to set in, but the warning signs should not be ignored by the TV channels who have not yet invested in OTT business.

     

    Based on the various trend of digital media consumption among the internet users, the study predicts that by 2024, digital ad spending worldwide will become $526.17 billion and will account for 62.6% of the total media ad spending. The growth rate of digital ad spend will fall sharply during 2020, but will rise equally sharply in 2021. Over 2022 to 2024. The growth rate of digital ad spending is expected to fall gradually, but its share in the total media ad revenue will continue to grow year on year as shown in the chart below.

     

     

    Source: eMarketer

     

    In India, it will take many years before the digital ad spending crosses 50% of the total media ad spending. However, as shown  in the recently published M&E industry Report 20202 by KPMG, the trend of ad spending on digital and OTT crossing the ad spending on TV media, is expected to set in by FY 2022 (https://www.mxmindia.com/2020/10/the-great-churning-of-the-media-cauldron/).

     

    The third trend observed in the study indicates that the pandemic is probably hastening the decline of print media: “Print audiences aren’t shrinking everywhere, but print newspapers and magazines did register many of the most dramatic decreases in media engagement this year.” In India, traditional print industry seems to be in a buoyant and positive mood during the current festive season. Some large newspaper houses have also posted good growth during the third quarter of 2020. But, the Pitch Madison Advertising Midyear Review 2020 released in August, 2020 estimated a loss of 31% to 36% in print ad expenditure from 2019 to 2020 (https://www.mxmindia.com/2020/08/dramatic-changes-in-indian-ad-industry/).  Only time will tell if COVID 19  will hasten the process of decline of the print media in India.

     

     

  • The report predicts that the IPL buzz volume of the digital track will grow from 37 mn in 2019 to 60 mn+ in 2020, writes Indrani Sen

    IPL 13 Rules. And how!

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Ever since IPL 13 began on September 19, 2020 with a massive 20 crore viewers on Star India Network and Disney + Hotstar, the tournament has been delivering high ratings on TV and OTT platforms.

     

    On the digital media front, IPL 13 is generating huge tractions over and above its coverage through Star India’s OTT platform Disney  + Hotstar. On October 30, 2020 Wavemaker published a press release on their mid-season report of “IPL Mesh 2020” covering matches from September 19 to October 24. Mesh is Wavemaker’s Realtime Data Intelligence tool which has integrated data from “multiple consumer touchpoints across Digital ecosystem ranging from Social Listening, Google Searches, Website visits, BARC, Video analytics in partnership with VIDOOLY, Interaction data points collected from Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube” to arrive at the observations and predictions shared in the report.

     

    The press release by Wavemaker contains a few charts and whets the appetite for the total report. The report predicts that the IPL buzz volume of the digital track will grow from 37 Mn in 2019 to 60 Mn + in 2020. During the first 36 days of the tournament, CSK was the driving force behind the interactions on social media. Now that CSK has failed to secure a place in the playoff matches, it will be interesting to watch if the buzz volume of the track gets affected. Similarly, it would be interesting to see who takes the place of M S Dhoni as wicketkeeper in the Leading Player Index Leader Board.

     

    In the Leaderboard ranking of most loved ads, Dream 11, Oppo and Tata Motors took the first three positions in desending order. IPL 13 has also seen a never before engagement in gamification of Cricket Fantasy League with the top five Fantasy League in September 2020 generating 30 million google searches and 90 Million web traffic. Based on historical data, the report claims that there will be huge surge both in TVP and social buzz during the next two weeks which will counter the drop in the social media buzz over during the last few weeks as shown in the chart above.

     

    While the Wavemaker’s report reconfirms the accelerated growth of the digital media intractions in India, in traditional TV media also IPL 13 continues to deliver high ratings to the satisfaction of the advertisers who have invested their advertising rupee in cricket. A fortnight back on October 15, TAM released “IPL 13 Advertising Report 1” based on their ADEX data covering the period from September 19 to October 10 (25 natches).  The report has shown an 8% growth registered in average ad volumes from IPL 12 to IPL 13 during the same time span/ number of matches. 5 out of the top 10 categories have been from E-commerce with 35% share of IPL 13 advertising volume and Oppo India’s commercial made it to the top position quite fast during IPL 13 compared to 2nd position in IPL 12.

     

    The most interesting fact which has emerged from this Advertising Report is the participation of new categories and brands in IPL 13. According to the TAM Adex report 30+ new categories and 150+ new brands advertised during IPL 13 compared to IPL 12. It remains to be seen how the advertising frenzy builds up further during the last two weeks of IPL 13, strategically scheduled during the pre-Diwali season in this pandemic hit year.