Category: INDRANI SEN

  • D K Bose: Father of Social Communication in India

     

    We  have had a major power outage in Mumbai and were ill-prepared for it. No power backups, plus a very weak internet connection. Our edition today is hence a little truncated. Our apologies. – Editor

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Dwipal Kumar Bose, known to most of us in the advertising and communication industry as ‘DK, expired suddenly due to a heart attack on the morning of October 9 at McLeodgunj in Himachal Pradesh. DK was 76 years’ old and had over 50 years of extensive experience in the industry across Media Planning, Social & Rural Marketing and Advocacy Research.

     

    DK and family were refugees from Bangladesh and after coming to India had to move their base a number of times due to his father’s frequent job changes. During his childhood and teenage years spent in many places across India, DK had to change schools frequently, but acquired grassroot level knowledge of India which was deeply rooted in his psyche.

     

    Financial constraints of a middleclass family with 12 siblings forced him to take up in 1964 his first job at 20 years as a voucher clerk in the billing department of S H Benson, the parent company of Ogilvy. But he was destined for bigger and larger roles in his life, so with his drive for learning and his unstoppable energy he managed to secure a degree from Elphinstone College, Mumbai and over the years rose through the ranks in Ogilvy, Benson & Mather to become a Media Manager in 1974.  He worked in Mumbai and Kolkata offices of Ogilvy (O&M) during the 70s and early 80s.

     

    I met DK for the first time in Mumbai in the early 1980s when he was working in Ogilvy and I was working in Contract Advertising. In spite of a slight age difference, we struck a bond as two Bengalis and as two professionals trying to improve our skills in understanding of media research and its applications to media planning. He taught me the value of grassroot level learning one can acquire through only travels in India, which made me drag my family to many small towns and villages across the country during our annual holidays for many years. My friendship with DK lasted for forty years though we never worked together or even lived in the same city after the few initial years in Mumbai.

     

    in 1984, DK joined HTA (JWT) Delhi as Media Director and I shifted back from Mumbai to my home town Kolkata, but we continued to stay in touch. For a few years, both of us worked in HTA’s media departments in Delhi and Kolkata and we used to meet at various seminars, conferences, media heads’ meets and during our official travels to Delhi and Kolkata. My travels to Delhi were more frequent than his travels to Kolkata and he never failed to invite me to his home for a meal whenever I went to Delhi. His wife Sahana (Khuku Boudi) was a gracious hostess and a great cook.

     

    DK shifted from media to social and rural marketing and started India’s first Social Communication Agency as the head of Thompson Social. He is rightfully the Father of Social Communication in India. He subsequently worked with RK Swamy BBDO and Ogilvy Outreach and expanded his knowledge and skillsets in social and rural marketing and media. I learnt a lot about social and rural communications by just interacting with him over the years. DK was a Founder Trustee for Centre of Advocacy Research, a member of Awareness & Communication Strategy Advisory Council (ACSAC) set up by UIDAI under Nandan Nilekani and served as a consultant to USAID, UNICEF Bangladesh and Myanmar. He helped set up rural and low-income communication units in Sri Lanka and Indonesia.  A book can be written on his experiences and achievements in the area of social and rural marketing. After his retirement from his last job as President of Ogilvy Outreach, DK started working as an advisor and strategist in Behavioural Change Communication mainly in the area of health and primary education. His described himself in his LinkedIn profile as “Margdarshak and advisor on Rural and social Marketing”. DK was awarded with the Lifetime Achievement Award from Rural Marketing Association of India in 2017.

     

    DK taught at IIMC, Delhi as visiting faculty for many years and was later associated with IIM Lucknow, IIM Khozikode and Jamia Milia University as visiting faculty. In his time, he trained many media planners and social and rural marketing executives, who later attained important roles in the industry. Some of them have been pouring their tributes to him over the last few days on social media. I quote here a few lines from the FB post of Kunal Sinha (a consumer strategist & foresights expert, 12 times winner of WPP Atticus award for original thinking in marketing services, including the Grand Prix) posted on October 9- “TO SIR WITH LOVE: You were my teacher, mentor and guide to life. And to countless others. I remember every moment we spend together because they were all valuable…… You inspired me. You challenged. You applauded. You were the source of new beginnings, at every age. Here is to your latest! Stay joyful- there’s no one who shared his love so selflessly.”

     

    Earlier this year, DK published his autobiography “Life Unstoppable: Making Challenges Work for you” with Adite Banerjee as an e-book on Amazon. The link is available on his website www.dkbose.com. The introduction on the back cover says: “Bose’s story is an inspiring tale of grit and determination, rejection and success. In narrating his life’s journey, the social communication strategist and behaviour change mentor goes beyond the tried and tested route of offering ‘success strategies’ but shares his own learnings and reveals how challenges can be made to work for you.” Young aspirants in advertising and social marketing must read this book for invaluable learnings.

     

    DK and Khuku Boudi were a made for each other couple and she accompanied him on his various travels across India and many other countries. She shared his love for travelling and visiting places in Interior India, particularly the small towns and villages of Himalayas. DK nursed her caringly and lovingly during the last few years of her life when unfortunately, she became wheelchair bound. DK also travelled with Khuk -Boudi during that period. He missed her a lot during the last two years after her death in September, 2018. I met DK last in January 2019 when I made a visit to his house in Mumbai and he offered me some homemade snacks prepared by his cook proudly telling me that she was trained by Khuku Boudi.

     

    He wrote in his FB account last month: “Two years back, Sahana, my wife left us for her journey into another world, leaving me to carry on my journey in this world alone. It is not easy to adjust to a life without her after 45 years off travelling together. While my children and their spouses are doing their best, I know I will have to travel alone. In the first 15 months after her demise I travelled to 15 places trying to create a world of my own. Unfortunately, the pandemic destroyed it all…. I know time will help. I am trying my best. RIP my co-traveller.” Little did we know that DK would be joining Khuku Boudi in another world within a few days of writing that post!

    A couple of days after the above post, DK posted on FB: “Planning to travel to McLeodgunj in October. Anyone willing to join?” We spoke last after that post, when I told him that I won’t be able to join him, but would enjoy the beauty of the hills through his lens. DK reached McLeodgunj in late evening of October 6 and breathed his last during sleep in early morning of October 9. He was cremated in the afternoon of October 10 at Dharmshala by his son Dipankar. DK now lies in eternal peace cuddled by the Himalayan hills he loved so much. He is survived by his daughter Sonali, his son-in-law and granddaughter, his son Dipankar and his daughter-in-law.  He will be remembered among his many friends and associates for his caring nature, his great spirit, his passion for learning and teaching, his sharp analytical mind and his awesome energy. I end here with my heart-felt condolences to his immediate and extended families.

     

    Rest in peace, my friend!

     

     

  • DD Free Dish Latest Auction: Who wins, Who loses?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    DD Free Dish has come a long way since its launch in 2005. Last year during the pandemic while Prasar Bharati had an auction of 53 MPG2 slots in March, 2020, followed by various auctions for limited number of channels for limited periods, allowing the Broadcasters to experiment with the pros and cons of having more than one channel from their stable on DD Free Dish.

    This year finallym the 52nd DD Free Dish Auction was announced inviting applications from eligible channels across six buckets of TV channels for the period of one year beginning from April 1, 2021. Prasar Bharati announced the reserve price for MPEG-2 slots according to the below bucket/categories:

    Bucket A+(All Hindi GEC TV channels) – 15 Crore

    Bucket A(All Hindi Movie TV channels) – 12 Crore

    Bucket B(All Hindi Music channels, Hindi Sports channels, Bhojpuri GEC channels, Bhojpuri Movie channels and Hindi Teleshopping channels – 10 Crore

    Bucket CNews & Current affairs (Hindi / English / Punjabi) channels – 7 Crore

    Bucket D– All other remaining Genres/ Regional channels and Regional Teleshopping channels – 6 Crore

    Bucket R1– Devotional / Spiritual / Aayush channels – 3 Crore

    Any channel participating in the auction had to bid above the reserve price in that particular category.

     

    During the last week, there has been a lot of excitement in the TV industry over the 52nd DD Free Dish Auction. According to industry sources, there was keen competition among Broadcasters for getting the slots across all buckets. Particularly in the News & Current Affairs category, the news channels have ended up investing huge amounts to secure slots on the distribution platform of Prasar Bharati. The final round of auction took place on last Saturday and the final list has been released on March 1, 2021. The results declared shows that 10 players have won the slots in A+ category while 15 players have won the slots in A category as shown below. The results also shows clearly that DD Free Dish has become an essential component of the marketing strategy of all the major Broadcasters.

      Category A + Hindi GEC   Category A Hindi Movies  
    1 ABZY Cool 1 Wah Movies* 9 Maha Movies
    2 Azaad 2 ABZY Movies 10 Manoranjan TV
    3 Big Magic 3 B4U Kadak 11 Movie Plus
    4 Color Rishtey 4 B4U Movies 12 Rishtey Cineplex
    5 Dangaal 5 BDM 13 Sony Wah
    6 Shemaroo 6 Bflix Movies 14 Star Utsav Movies
    7 Sony Pal 7 Dhinchaak 15 Zee Anmol Cinema
    8 Star Utsav 8 Enterr10 Movies    
    9 The Q India * Expected to be relaunched as Dhinchaak 2
    10 Zee Anmol        

    Bucket B earlier used to be reserved for only Hindi Music, Sports, Teleshopping, etc. The inclusion of Bhojpuri channels in that bucket reflects growing viewership of Bhojpuri language beyond its linguistic territory. Of the 13 TV channels winning slots in this category, 7 are Bhojpuri channels. In bucket C, 12 News Channels have fought the auction and both buckets D and R1, have 5 applicants each. As per the information available the news channels winning slots in the auction are Aaj Tak, Aaj Tak Tej, ABP News, India TV, NDTV India, News18 India, News Nation, Republic TV Bharat, TV9 Bharatvarsh, Zee Hindustan and Zee News. The industry grapevine is saying that the news channels have ended up investing proportionately major chunk of their expected annual revenue in the DD Free Dish auction and couple of them may back out subsequently.

     

    As of now, Prasar Bharati has got INR 730 + crores from the sale of 57 MPG 2 slots on the DD Free Dish from the 52nd DD Free Dish Auction which shows a 23% increase over the last auction of INR 594.25 crore collected from the sales of 53 MPG2 slots in March, 2020. The Bucket A of Hindi Movies Collectively has got the highest collection at Rs 194.85 crore, but a Hindi news channel has come out as the single highest bidder at Rs 22.05 crore.

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    The total number of channels participating in the auction has crossed the number of 53 slots which were available for the auction. The senior officials of Prasar Bharati have been huddled together in meetings over last Friday and Saturday trying to decide which Doordarshan channels they should delete from the DD Free Dish offerings to allow all the private channels to come on board.

     

    It is not really fair for a Public Broadcaster to take such a step as the axe is bound to fall on some smaller Doordarshan Channels catering to small states. Prasar Bharati is yet to declare which Doordarshan channels have been taken out from DD Free Dish to accommodate the private channels. Last year, I wrote in this column about the silent coup by Prasar Bharati. I am an ardent supporter of the DD Free Dish strategy, however, Prasar Bharati should not promote this strategy at the cost of depriving smaller states from the viewing Doordarshan programmes in their own language on the DD Free Dish.

     

  • IPL 2021: The Show Will Go On, but…

     

    By Indrani Sen

    Indrani SenThe second wave of the pandemic has hit India, record number of cases have been reported across the country just a week before the IPL 14 scheduled to take off at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on April 9, 2021, Maharashtra has been declared as one of the worst affected states by the second wave, night curfew has been declared in Mumbai, Pune and other cities of Maharashtra, yesterday a lockdown over weekends has been announced in Maharashtra, at the same time the BCCI has announced that IPL matches will be held as per schedule.

    On April 3, a total of 18 people connected with IPL tested Covid positive, 2 players, 10 groundsmen of Wankhede Stadium and 6 members from IPL Event Management Team. BCCI has already arranged to replace the groundsmen, which was not easy as five IPL teams are currently in Mumbai training on different grounds. Alternative venues in other cities have been lined up in case matches cannot be held at the Wankhede stadium. Huge logistical issues will arise in case last minute changes are made in venues. In order to hold night matches and matches over the weekends in Mumbai during night curfew and weekend lockdown, BCCI must have sought special permissions from the state authorities.

    The show must go on as too much is at stake financially not just for BCCI, but also for all the IPL franchisees, the players playing in the teams, the official broadcaster of the tournament on TV and OTT platforms – Disney Star India, many advertisers and ad agencies who have already invested in the property and have planned marketing activities accordingly and last but not the least the viewers who are eagerly looking forward to watching again the annual festival of live cricket and provide the currency for justifying the rates charged by the broadcaster to the advertisers.

    It is estimated that in 2020, Star Sports and Hotstar together earned around INR 3000 crore in ad revenue from IPL 13 held in Dubai in 2020. This year, they are apparently eyeing a target of INR 3600 to INR 3800 crore. A more conservative estimate also envisages a 17% to 18% growth over last year’s ad revenue. As per the recent TVC released by Disney Star India, the broadcaster has bagged 17 sponsors for IPL 14. Disney+ Hotstar has already acquired 14 sponsors and are negotiating with couple of others. Altogether more than 100 brands across different categories are expected to advertise on TV and OTT platforms riding on the band wagon of IPL 14.

    As per industry estimates, co-presenting sponsorship on Star Sports is priced at Rs 110-Rs 125 crore and associate sponsorship at Rs 65-70 crore. While the cost of 10 seconds is pegged in the range of 13.2 lakh to 13.6 lakh for sponsors and cosponsors, the same for spot buyers is charged at the rate of Rs 14 .3 lakh. Traditionally 50% of the total time available for advertising is allotted to the sponsors and the other 50% is sold to the spot buying deals. The broadcaster has already announced that from April 1, 2021 the remaining ad inventory will be sold at 20% higher rate as apparently 90% of the total time available has already been sold. Usually, before the semi-finals and finals, IPL spot buying rates on TV are hiked again for last minute spot buying deals, so a further hike may be expected.

    Ever since the IPL 14 was announced, we have seen many articles based on various advertisers’ experience of advertising with earlier IPLs, particularly IPL 13 and the returns which they got on their investments in terms of growth in awareness and consideration scores. IPL has established beyond doubts that there is no other TV property which can deliver the leap in awareness and consideration scores within the span of 8 weeks. It is the ability of IPL to connect with target audiences across age, sex, education, occupation, income groups and states which attracts advertisers to invest in the property.

    Many women-centric brands have been considering the option of advertising with IPL 14 as the popularity and viewership of IPL among women has seen an increase over the last few years. As per the BARC Report, women viewership of IPL 13 grew by 23% over 2019 while the male viewership grew by 22%. In 2020, IPL 13 registered 171 billion viewing minutes of female audience, while in 2019 IPL 12 registered 139 billion viewing minutes of female audience. From 2018 to 2020, the share of male viewing has dropped from 58% to 57% while the share of women viewing has increased from 42% to 43% in the total IPL viewing minutes.

    Most industry sectors are now on a path of recovery after the disastrous year of 2020, as discussed earlier many advertisers have already invested in IPL 14, ad agencies have been hoping to earn relatively better fees from their clients advertising in IPL 14, when the increasing fury of the second wave of pandemic is threatening to upset all the plans. Postponement of a cricket tournament of the scale of IPL and finding another slot of 8 weeks in the international cricket calendar is not an easy task. Cancellation of the tournament at this stage is not desirable as it will amount to huge loss for all concerned. BCCI needs to get ready for firefighting on a day-to-day basis to hold the tournaments of IPL 14 on home grounds in 2021.

  • Scanning the Indian Pay TV Market

     

    By Indrani Sen

    Indrani SenIndian Pay TV market is highly fragmented due to the multi-lingual distribution of TV content through many regional distributors along with national distributors covering the HSM and all major regional markets. As per different available research, 50% + share of the subscribers of Pay TV are currently being held by several small regional players. None of the available estimates except the FICCI EY reports takes into account the subscribers of DD Free Dish while estimating the total TV households in India. DD Free Dish subscribers do not have to pay for the TV content so do not contribute to the pay TV market revenue.

    Media Partners Asia (MPA) has recently published a report titled “Indian Pay TV Distribution 2021” which predicts that by 2025, the Indian Pay TV industry will reach revenue of USD 12.3 billion and total Pay TV subscribers will increase to 134 million in 2025 from 127 million in 2020. According to the same research, DTH homes in India will grow from 58 million in 2020 to 68 million in 2025 at the cost of the cable TV homes during the same period. Compared to estimates published by various other research organisations, the total pay TV subscribers’ base in India seem to have been underestimated while the revenue may have been overestimated by MPA.

    According to an estimate published by Statista Research Department on March 19, 2021, “India had over 160 million subscribers of pay TV in the year 2019. This figure was around 149 million subscribers in 2016 and was estimated to go up to over 184 million Pay TV subscribers by 2024.” These estimates are higher than the estimates made by the FICCI EY in their report on the Indian M&E industry 2020.

    Another report India Telecom Operators Country Intelligence report published by www.globaldata.com in 2020 supports the estimates of Statista. As per this report, Cable will be the leading Pay TV technology in India throughout the forecast period, followed by DTH with a small presence IPTV which is expected to grow in India at a very fast rate during the next 4 years. As per www.globaldata.com the total Pay TV revenue in India is expected to grow at an annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7 percent from USD 3.19 billion in 2020 to USD 3.30 billion in 2025, which is much lower than the FICCI EY estimates.

    The above picture reflects the trends in TV distribution by technology in the global market, though the pandemic has reduced the share of the cable TV subscribers in India. IPTV is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.4% in India during the next 4 years riding on the fixed broadband penetration in India as well as smart TV sets.

    According to the report published in www.grandviewresearch.com: “The global Pay TV market size was valued at USD 225.9 billion in 2019, registering a CAGR of more than 1.5% from 2020 to 2027.” This report spoke about the growth in penetration of Pay TV in rural households in China, India and Indonesia creating overall growth in the Pay TV industry.

     

    Source: FICCI EY Indian M&E Industry Report 2020

    As per the FICCI EY report on the Indian M&E industry 2020, there are 171 million TV households in India of which 40 million are Free TV households. The report estimates distribution revenue of the Indian TV Industry to reach INR 502 billion (USD 6.72 billion) in 2023 from the current level of INR 434 billion (USD 5.80 billion). The FICCI EY estimates seem to be the best one available currently for the size as well as the revenue of the Pay TV market in India.

  • A Trillion-Dollar Digital Economy Beckons

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Last week, in a virtual event, Assocham released along with The Dialogue, a research report titled ‘Enabling A Trillion Dollar Digital Economy – Interdependent, Interconnected and Digital’. The media coverage of the event highlighted the gist of the speeches given by the various dignitaries which did not do justice to the actual content of the report.

     

    The report by The Dialogue presents an in-depth analysis of the telecom industry of India and the way it has enabled the digital economy. It also reviews the challenges of privacy, security, intermediary liability, competition and financial loss which the industry is facing currently along with the opportunities and the action points for achieving the target of a trillion-dollar digital economy by 2025.

     

    As action points, the report offers solutions like reducing regulatory levies, addressing the AGR issue, reducing GST burden, progressive regulatory policies, an online portal for transparency of approvals along with introduction of new technologies. In an indirect way, the report challenges some of the current rules and regulations related to the telecom industry.

     

    If our government takes the suggestions given in the report seriously and activate the action points suggested by them, then we shall definitely achieve the target of a trillion-dollar digital economy in four years.

     

    The report gives an estimate of the size of the internet users in India, which shows 97% of internet subscribers (752.09 million) are wireless internet subscribers. A comparison of the internet subscribers between June 2016 and September 2020 shows that the wired internet subscribers increased by only 3.6 million while the wireless internet subscribers increased by 422.37 million in four years. Broadband subscribers grew by 564.26 million during the same period from 162.06 million to 726.32 million.

     

     

    Source: https://thedialogue.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Enabling-a-Trillion-Dollar-Economy-The-Dialogue.pdf

     

    In November 2016, Assocham had published along with Deloitte a research report titled “Digital India: Unlocking the Trillion Dollar Opportunity”. There is no reference to that report in the recently published report except the use of the June 2016 data for comparing the internet/ broadband subscribers.

     

    Said Kazim Rizvi, founding director, The Dialogue in the introduction of the report: “I hope that for years to come, this serves us as a guiding document on the regulatory issues to be debated and discussed, in order to enhance the potential of India’s digital economy.” I not only agree with him, but congratulate The Dialogue team for producing a comprehensive guide for solving the problems of our telecom industry which is the backbone of our growing digital economy.

     

  • Advertising goes down 29%

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Indrani SenThe FICCI EY report on Indian M&E industry 2021 titled “Playing by New Rules” was released last Friday, March 26, 2021 at a virtual event. By now, we know that M&E sector posted INR 1.38 trillion in 2020 (a decline of 24% from 2019). Except Digital Media and Online Gaming, all other media suffered degrowth as an effect of Covid-19. Print media lost its #2 position to Digital Media, while Television managed retain the #1 position.

    Let us turn our focus to the advertising industry, which according to the FICCI EY report, saw the highest single year drop in the history of Indian advertising. The industry saw a degrowth of 29% in 2020, higher than the 24% degrowth of the overall M&E sector. The report describes 2020 as “a watershed year for advertising spends”. A review of how advertising revenue was distributed among different media in 2020 and how did the distribution compare with 2019 is shown in the table below:

     

    Ad Revenue by Media: Source FICCI EY Report 2021

    Advertising in traditional media experienced a degrowth of 37% from 2019 to 2020, but advertising in digital media remained steady and did not suffer any loss. Advertising in Print sufferred due to reverse migration, changed consumer habits and cost-cutting while advertising in Radio and OOH was affected by reduced mobility of consumers. The experienial industry comprising of Events and Cinema degrew due to lockdown guideline, social distancing norms and consumer fear of crowded places.

    The advertising industry is not expected to recover the losses of last year in next two years (2021 and 2022). While the total advertising spend is expected to regain the pre-Covid-19 levels in 2023, the individual traditional media are estimated to regain the same levels over a period of 5 years: 2021 (none), 2022 (Television), 2023 (Events & Cinema), 2024 (OOH), Radio (2024+) and Print (2025+).  Digital media is expected to grow by 22.5% over the 2019 level in 2021.

    In a Marketer Survey conducted by EY in 2020, 88% of marketers were confident that consumer spends in their sector would grow in 2021. 66% of the marketers felt that their advertising expenditure would grow in next two years. However, 33% of the marketers surveyed felt that their advertising expenditure either would not grow or would decline in the next two years.

    The same survey showed the marketers incresed investments in D2C initiatives during the pandemic in 2020 as shown in the above chart and 74% of them expeted to spend over 20% of their total spends on digital media against 45% who had shown interest in investing in digital media in 2019. A significant increase in digital spend were expressed by most.

    The survey probed further on how the marketers were assessing the state of their future readiness in terms of their digital maturity and found that the advertising agencies are playing a crucial role.

    :: “92% of respondents were actively monitoring their digital readiness, at a time when complex ecosystems are emerging across the business and marketing landscape.

    :: 53% of respondents surveyed depended on their agency partners to update them on leading practices in their digital transformation journeys”

    The FICCI EY report finally sums up the section on advertising by listing how advertisers are turning uncertainty to opportunity through Martech adoption, investments in brand purpose and architecture, hyperlocalisation, building and retaining immersive consumer experience, diversification of media, colaboration and last but not the least ensuring digital effectiveness. The experts’ comments at the end of the section on Advertising makes it clear that in the digital age advertising agencies need to invest in data, technology and analytics to stay relevant for their clients.

     

  • So how do the GroupM & Madison forecasts compare?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Like every year, last week we saw the release of both This Year Next Year 2021 (TYNY2021) by GroupM and Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2021 (PMAR2021) by Madison Media. Both agreed that the pandemic year 2020 was a disastrous one for the Indian Media and Advertising Industry, when the overall AdEx dropped by 20% (PMAR2021) to 21.5% (TYNY2021) from the 2019 level. Both have predicted better days in 2021 with the overall AdEx growing by 23.3% (TYNY2021) to 26% (PMAR2021).  According to PMAR2021, the predicted AdEx INR 68,325 crore in 2021 will touch the AdEx INR 67,603 crore in 2019. According to TYNY2021, the forecast for 2021 is INR 80,123 crore, which falls short by 3.35% from the AdEx in 2019 which was INR 82,904 crore.

     

    In spite of the huge gap in the overall AdEx estimates by the two agencies, it is relieving to find that the trends predicted by both of them are similar. The gap in the estimated size of the Indian AdEx between the two reports has been existing over many years and the Media and Advertising Industry has learned to live with the differences. TYNY2021 has estimated both TV and Digital AdEx at much higher levels than PMAR2021. On the other hand, PMAR2021 has estimated Print AdEx at a much higher level than TYNY2021. The following two tables show the details of the two reports by medium for making easy comparisons.

     

     

    According to PMAR2021, the pandemic year 2020 will go down in the history of Indian Media and Advertising as the year when Digital overtook Print and became #2 in terms of market share of overall AdEx. However, TYNY2019 showed Digital as the #2 and Print in the #3 positions in terms of market share. In 2020, GroupM estimated a 2% degrowth in Digital from 2019 level, while Madison Media estimated a 10% growth in Digital over 2019 level. Both the reports show Print AdEx in 2021 would be below the 2019 levels, while Digital AdEx would be crossing the 2019 levels in 2021. So, we can now conclude that Digital has the second highest market share in overall AdEx and it is unlikely that Print would be able to regain that position in 2021 or later.

     

    TV which holds the #1 position in Indian AdEx in both the reports, had degrowth of 11% (PMAR2021) to 14% (TYNY2021) last year, but is expected to grow at higher rate 17% (PMAR2021) to 18% (TYNY2021) in 2021 and touch or cross the 2019 AdEx levels.

     

    Both the reports show the huge loss which was suffered by the other traditional media, Outdoor, Radio and Cinema during 2020.  In spite of the overall growth of AdEx predicted for 2021, these three media would be far below their 2019 benchmarks. The combined market share of these three media continues to be less than 10% in both the reports. A difference in reporting between TYNY and PMAR has been noticed this year regarding Radio. While PMAR2021 has reported only on Radio, TYNY2021 has changed the nomenclature to Audio. It is however not very clear what other audio component apart from Radio has been included under that definition.

     

    It is encouraging to find from the two reports that the worst effect of pandemic is over; Media and Advertising industry is on the path of recovery; the process of digitisation has been accelerated; we are expecting a robust GDP growth and globally India will continue to be the second-fastest growing AdEx market among the top ten countries in 2021. At the same time, it is also frightening that the economic effects of Covid-19 have manged to wipe off two years of overall AdEx growth (2020 & 2021) and many media-owners and some media agencies still have to fight battles for survival.

     

  • The Grave Crisis in OOH Continues

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    The EY-FICCI 2019 Media & Entertainment Industry Report estimated that the Indian OOH industry grew by 5% in 2019, taking the industry size to Rs 37.1 billion. The traditional OOH formats, driven by increased advertising opportunities in tier-II and tier-III cities, contributed 54% to the overall revenue. However, according to the report the main driving factor behind the growth is recent development of infrastructure network, including upcoming airports, smart city projects, malls, metros, bus shelters, public utility, coffee shops, etc.

     

    Source: EY-FICCI 2019 M&E Industry Report

     

    A couple of years back, www.statistia.com published an estimate of out of home advertsing in India from 2009 to 2024 as shown below. It is interesting to note that overall size of OOH industry estimated In the FICCI EY report is higher than shown in the chart for 2019 (Rs. 34 billion).

     

    Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/233491/out-of-home-advertising-revenue-in-india/

     

    The growth of the OOH industry has been stalled completely as an effect of Covid-19. In the ‘FICCI Frames 2020’ virtual conference, WPP’s CEO Mark Reed remarked that OOH was the most impacted medium due to Covid-19. While we are seeing some signs of revival in digital, TV and print media, the trend has not yet been seen in OOH media under the gradual process of unlocking. While we are still waiting for FICCI EY to release a revised estimate for M&E industry in 2020, the mid-year review of the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 has estimated 35% to 50% de-growth in OOH advertising revenue in 2020.

     

    At the early stage of lockdown, IOAA also estimated that their annual revenue may see a 50% drop in 2020 and appealed for financial relief to the various state governments who have not yet responded positively. The association also requested the central government to declare the pandemic as natural calamity which is covered under ‘force majeure’ clause of all OOH contracts which also has not received any definite response. In US and couple of other countries, OOH industry registered as small business has received some financial relief, but we have not seen any such relief measures for the OOH industry in India.

     

    An article published on August 10, 2020 has predicted four key trends for OOH medium in 2020 and beyond (https://www.advendio.com/4-key-ooh-advertising-trends-2020-beyond): 1/ build brand awareness with smart creatives; 2/ adapt value for money messaging approach; 3/ the evolution of touch screen OOH advertisements and 4/ curbside pickup and digital OOH are here to stay. Apart from the first trend, there is hardly any scope seeing of the other trends happening in India. It is high time that our outdoor advertising agencies take stock of their inventories and consider disinvesting in traditional formats and channelize their attention to building up standardised digital OOH formats as per the global trends.

     

     

  • Is Legacy Media Recovering in the Unlocking?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    During the last two or three weeks, we saw many reports on how the AdEx has improved in June 2020 ensuring us that not only digital, but TV and print are also on the path of recovery after Covid-19. TAM AdEx for June has shown that TV advertising volumes increased by 74 per cent per day in June compared to April, when adspends declined sharply due to decline in demand during the nationwide lockdown. TV ad volumes saw 46% growth in June compared to May.

     

    Print, which suffered a bigger hit in terms of revenue due to distribution problems during lockdown, has recorded a higher increase of 325% in average ad volume per day in June 2020 when compared to April 2020. Most of the business newspapers and industry websites reported on the recovery of digital and TV media. None of the articles highlighted the comparison between the first quarter and the second quarter of 2020 which could have given a better idea about the recovery of ad volumes in digital and TV media.

     

    I saw only one article in details on Print AdEx on the recovery of Print AdEx which also did not have any such comparison (https://www.financialexpress.com/brandwagon/print-advertising-on-the-road-to-recovery-as-average-ad-volumes-per-day-rose-325-in-june-2020-tam-adex/2032701/). This trend of lack of reporting on print clearly indicates that the medium has lost its position to digital not just in terms of share of the advertising pie, but also in the share of mind map of the audience, the advertisers and agencies.

     

    The Advertising Report on Radio – April-June 2020 published by TAM shows that average ad volume per day increased by more than two-fold in June compared to April and May. However, a comparison with the first quarter of the year (Jan-March) shows that the ad volumes in radio are still much below the pre-Covid-19 phase. It is interesting to note that FM Radio ad volumes in Non-metro cities have recovered better than metro cities.

     

     

    The ad volumes of radio advertising in all 18 cities grew in June 2020 over May 2020. The chat below shows that the eight non-metro cities, Nagpur, Indore, Vizag, Kanpur, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Vadodara and Ahmedabad have shown much better growth in June 2020 compared the four metro cities. Kanpur, Indore and Vizag led the chart with each accounting for two-fold growth in ad volumes. Among the four metro cities, Kolkata has shown the highest percentage change in June 2020 over May 2020 with Mumbai showing the least percentage change. The listenership of FM radio increased during the period of lockdown and has retained the level, but advertisers across different cities are investing in the medium in different way.

     

     

    The report has detail analysis of radio advertising by categories, advertisers and brands as well as city wise analysis of the performance of radio AdEx. It also presents comparative analysis of TV and radio and digital and radio advertising during Jan-June 2020. The Top 10 common categories, advertisers and brands between TV and radio shows that during the first six months of 2020, Top 10 common categories, advertisers and brands added 33%, 14% and 4% on TV while they added 10%, 7% and 4% on radio.  Similarly, the Top 10 common categories, advertisers and brands between digital and radio shows that during the first six months of 2020, Top 10 common categories, advertisers and brands added 47%, 18% and 12% on digital while they added 19%, 2% and 1% on radio. The role of radio in the media mix needs to be reassessed by advertisers and agencies for the growth and survival of the FM radio industry during this period of unlocking and subsequent return to normalcy.

     

     

  • Rise & Shine of the Digital Duo

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    The digital marketing trends in US indicate the trends across the world (except China). Recently, an article in www.emarketer.com indicated that the Facebook-Google duopoly will continue in the US market in spite of the amazing growth registered by Amazon which has been steadily increasing its share (https://www.emarketer.com/content/facebook-google-duopoly-won-t-crack-this-year?ecid=NL1009). Google is the leading partner in this duopoly across the world.

     

    The same duopoly enjoys together 68 per cent of India’s digital ad market and it is likely to grow as the digital advertising spending is expected to also increase by 30 per cent in 2019. Even if the growth forecast takes a dip as foretold by the less than expected yield of digital media during Diwali 2019, it will not affect the stronghold of the duopoly.

     

    Google India, the arm of the technology giant, reported total revenue close to ₹ 9337 crores in FY18.  A most unprecedented financial result reported by Google India for FY19 has created confusion in the market place. Google India reported a 56 per cent fall in revenue to ₹ 4147 crores in the year ended March 31, 2019 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/717633/google-revenue-value-india/). The fall was attributed to a new accounting standard introduced by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, Government of India.

     

    Google is the undisputed leader in India’s mobile search engine market, but its biggest cash cow- Google AdWords, is registered under the Google Asia Pacific division. As such, the revenue and profits from AdWords cannot be filed as part of the Indian division without incurring certain burden of taxation as per the amended rules. So, advertising revenue, the biggest contributor to Google’s  overall revenue is missing from the revenue posted by Google India.

     

    On the other hand, Facebook Inc’s Indian operation has reported revenues of ₹ 892 crore, compared to revenues of ₹ 521 crore, a 71% jump in revenues last fiscal for fiscal year ended 31 March 2019  (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/facebook-reports-84-jump-in-net-profit-for-india-at-rs-105-crore-for-fiscal-2019/articleshow/71891826.cms?from=mdr) As a result, share of Facebook has gone up in the duopoly in Indian market, though it has a long way to go before its revenue gets closer to Google’s revenue. It remains to be seen if Amazon will be able to grow its share in the Indian market following the US example.

     

    As advertisers and agencies continue to use Google AdWords and place digital advertising through Google, the analysis of the revenue sources will not match with the money spend on digital advertising across various platforms offered by Google and will add to the computing confusions in media planning.

     

     

  • IRS 2019: Future of Print under Microscope

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Indrani Sen

    The recent release of IRS 2019 by the MRUC did not have as dramatic impact as the release of IRS 2017 when the definition of readership was changed from “Average Issue Readership” (AR) to Total Readership” (TR). Yes, the TR has gone up by 2.7 crore from 40.7 crore to 42.5 crore with both newspapers and magazines contributing to the raise the numbers, but if we try to read between the information in the carefully drafted PPT released by MRUC for consumption of Industry at large, we find some red flags concealed in certain corners.

    Let us look at the slide on all media consumption highlighting the growth of internet. Internet accessed has grown by 5% from IRS 2017 to IRS’19Q1. No other medium has shown this kind of growth. While total readers have increased to 42.5 crore, the internet users are now 384 million, or 38.4 crore. With increase of another 5 to 6 million internet users, soon the internet penetration will be same as penetration of print on All India basis. Print media needs to plan for their digital strategy asap in order to survive.

    The NCCS distribution going flat is a clear indication that MRUC needs to rework the definitions based on ownership of durables. The PPT has put in a flag in couple of slides saying “Need for a sharper socio economic discriminator?” No timeline for a working plan was indicated at the launch event.

    In this connection, I would like to mention that my students at SIMC did a survey last year on media habits of non-teaching staff working in all Institutes of Lavale campus of Symbiosis, Pune. They found that the need of giving good education to their students and the availability of easy EMI have made 90% of ‘bhaiyas’ and ‘mausis’ with their children in secondary schools have made them purchase either desktop or laptop computers for their use at home. I have been commenting on this need for a change in NCCS for some time. I am happy to see that MRUC has acknowledged it this time in their PPT on IRS 2019.

    Finally, I would like to comment that print players need to respect the findings of IRS 2019. MRUC should get a continuous flow of funds from them, so that no disruptions occur in the field work like it happened after the release of IRS 2017.

     

     

  • Online Gaming is the new Digital Rock Star

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Indrani Sen

    The digital gaming industry in India is currently undergoing rapid changes riding on the mobile revolution and fuelled by investment from big players such as Alibaba, Tencent, Youzu and Nazara. Many startup gaming developers are also lapping up the opportunities and providing the online gamers with new formats of online games and real-time experiences. Industry experts estimate that the number of online game developers has grown 10 times in last eight years from a mere 25 in 2010 to around 250 in 2018.

     

    A decade back, the accessibility to playing online games was not easy as it required downloading and installation of games on consoles and desktop computers. The rising affordability and adoption of smartphone has become one of the important factors contributing to the rise in the number of gamers and success of the online gaming Industry. The new age gaming developers are experimenting with innovative gaming formats backed by blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning technology. Action, adventure and puzzle are the popular gaming genres in India with fantasy sports rising at a fast rate supported by emergence of new sports leagues as well as promotion of traditional sports tournaments through online gaming.

     

    As per the FICCI-EY 2019 report on Indian M&E Industry, the industry growth was from 2017 to 2018 was led by online gaming and digital media as shown in the following chart.

     

    Source: FICCI EY ME Industry Report 2019

     

    The report further predicts that online gaming will have the highest CAGR (35%) from 2018-2021 and along with the digital media (28%) and in three years both sectors will more than double their value in INR. While digital media is tipped off to overtake filmed entertainment 2019 and print in 2021, online gaming is already bigger than OOH, radio and music and will overtake live events in 2021 and is likely to overtake Animation and VFX by 2022 to rise to the fifth rank in terms of the share of the Indian ME industry pie.

     

    Indian ME Industry Source: FICCI EY ME Industry Report 2019

     

    This trend is going to have a far-reaching impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of the digital media planning which is expected to ride largely on programmatic buying and planning. Many advertisers would like to try out the route of developing exclusive/ branded online games targeted at their audience profile. The Freemium business model, which is currently most commonly used model in the online gaming sector in India, will attract more support from advertisers. Digital Marketing and Media Agencies will explore more innovative ways of exploiting the scope of reach provided by online gaming. After mobile and social media, online gaming will develop as a distinct media channel in the next decade. Online gaming is going to be the new rock star of all online media from 2020.