By Sanjeev Kotnala
There is life beyond advertising, and that is the actual business. Diwali is almost the start of a fresh year. The festivities open the market, and not a surprise that Dassera-Diwali is called the fifth quarter. After last year’s washout and restrictions, Diwali was under a cloud till Covid numbers started coming down.
So here are 21 observations this Diwali of 2021:
1. The FIFTH QUARTERis opening the business with a bang. The trapped demand for items has just seen a volcanic eruption. The customers are back in the market, and though they keep cribbing about rate hikes, they are spending.
2. STOCKMARKETcontinues to be the stockmarket. It builds on aspirations – dreams and some illogical expectations. There is so much buzz around the large IPO with high multiples like Paytm, and the real numbers of companies like Nykaa are going under the radar. Why the market should cross 60,000 is debatable.
3. DIGITALis booming, but currency is not yet written off. Yes, India has taken to digital payments in a big way. You can now almost pay for anything digitally. Wallets and bank accounts have been linked. However, there is a strong urge for cash payments in many areas. Maybe reflecting the belief in hard currency.
4. The THIRD WAVE. There is a complete polarisation on what Covid is all about. How the waves surge and how they get flattened. Vaccination numbers and the deaths that are ascribed to the virus. Need to mask or remain unmasked. The Diwali festival period with about 5-10 days lag will really tell us if we should have had some more restrictions. Whichever way it happens, the government will take the flak.
5. Time for POLARISED BRAND COMMUNICATION. You can be trolled for anything and everything, from Mangal Sutra to crackers, to Karva Chauth to Bindi to Godbharai. And hence the clients will have to take a call. Result: you will see polarisation. One set and the larger set will play it safe for some time. Another will play bold (read risky), hoping they can manage if things go wrong.
6. SHORT-TERM MEMORY WILL OPERATE IN SPORTS. We have already started forgetting the Olympians. We have the fresh wounds of Mauka-Mauka Pakistan to take care of it. And soon, we will know if we have got some balm in the last three matches, or the wounds could get worse. But, soon, all will be forgotten as we will start discussing the possibilities of the home series of three T20 and two Test matches with New Zealand.
7. The celluloid POLITICS-POLICE GAME of the early seventies will be more real-life. More scandalous claims will be made. More representatives’ careers from political and law enforcement will find themselves in the spotlight. The news will take centrestage for some time. Republic TV and NDTV will find reasons to take sides. And nothing will change. NCB and ED, along with Income Tax authorities, will play on the sidelines.
8. WFH WILL POLARISE PEOPLE. More and more companies will be forced to reinvent their working ways and culture. Many are expected to go back to earlier working from the office. And most expected to adopt a hybrid model. Whatever the adapted model, there will always be a set of employees not in sync with it.
9. INFLATION MAY BE THE NEXT ONION.Inflation, natural – disguised or forced, will raise its ugly head. If the price of diesel and petrol keeps spiralling, they will have a strong impact on all items. And, if that remains the case, it may impact the state-level elections too. Some amount of managing inflation is required, and no one has any idea how.
10. WELLBEING-HEALTH WILL TAKE CENTERSTAGE.Most consumer products will be evaluated on their health impact. The global climatic impact may not still make a mark or impact the decision making- but individual health impact will determine success.
11. PRIORITIES & COMMUNITIES REDEFINED. Expected consumers to redefine priorities in terms of financial needs. Insurance and safe deposits will see a surge. To safeguard against fluctuation and fulfil sudden emergency fund needs, there will be some holding back of hard currencies and a decrease in high return-high risk advantage.
12. ONLINE EDUCATION WILL GIVE AGNI PARIKSHA. There has been a surge in online education, and teachers and students are getting acclimatised to them. The recruiters are not in sync. So, the batches that pass in 2021 -22 will have to prove someone right. If not for professional education, online will still accept skill enhancement, future-proofing and short courses.
13. NORMAL WILL NEVER BE THE SAME.The goal post will keep shifting. Tectonic technology advancement and shifting consumer behaviour will remain a crystal ball and remain a point of speculation.
14. THE MIDDLEMAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATENED.Nothing new. The trend has been on the rise. Most technologies will try to bridge the gap and reach the customers directly- raising expectations of better service and experience.
15. THE RECOVERY WILL NOT BE SMOOTH.Have you seen a monkey on an oily pole? Climb four feet, slip down three. We most likely will see this. But how many notches the monkey climbs or slips? No one knows.
16. INNOVATION. ENERGY will be the new trinity. But like most, they will always be at loggerheads. Manage one; the second will go off balance. The one who could manage it- will be the winner.
17. SOCIAL PLATFORMS WILL FURTHER DISTANCE PEOPLE.The community and individuals will shortly realise the curse of social media and platforms. That will be too late. The soft control of the amount of time dedicated to social platforms will no longer work, as mobile and screen addiction will increase. Anxiety-depression-mental disorders will creep up, and so will be OTC drugs for the same. Everyone will know the problem – but no one will know of a solution. Digital detox and deaddiction centres will be the new wellness spa centres. Protocol and SOP will be generated. And Happiness will be the new promise.
18. SOCIAL POLARISATION WILL PEAK.Polarisation and community-based association on the region- religion- beliefs and rituals will speed up. Cross-community tempers will flare. And product services may get a specific focussed approach like the Jain tours or Vaishnav Dhaaba or Halal meat.
19. THE DATA DEPENDENCEfor insights and solution development will increase. More refined AI will slowly move toward Alternative Intelligence. Analytics will be much in demand, but the actual utilisation of mega data in the smaller organisation is still far off.
20. PURPOSE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE OVER-RATED.Brands will continue to attempt to be associated with purpose- real- imaginary – inherent, or crafted. It is different that the world is hardly purpose-led. Even consumers will try finding a meaning to life and overtly support purpose-led brands.
21. ORGANISATION WITHIN ORGANISATION.Like the shop-in-shop, we will find smaller cross-functional teams that will act as mini-organisations to challenge and compete within others, such groups. The entrepreneurial spirit will be something that will be highly valued.
The world will get far fluid and dynamically chaotic. So trends will change faster than digital algorithms.
diya emoji was used the most across all age categories, while interestingly the eldest of India still preferred the traditional folded hands ( ) to wish each other.
