MxMIndia

Author: Shailesh Kapoor

  • Food For Thought: TV’s Pop Culture Problem

    Food For Thought: TV’s Pop Culture Problem

    Shailesh KapoorScrolling through TV ratings reports a couple of weeks ago, I could not help noticing Laughter Chefs. The show, launched on Colors on June 1, 2024, is doing better numbers than most reality shows, including established franchises, have managed in the last year or so. A rating of 1.5 on the weekends, over a duration of 1.5 hours (sometimes longer), is no mean feat in a category where 1.5 is now seen as a successful number even for mainline fiction content. And here’s a low-cost non-fiction show that comes without much fanfare, and manages to score very well, largely on account of engagement (time spent).

    I ended up watching an episode, and then a few more. The show is irresistibly unapologetic about its loose format, which is in itself a loose adaptation of the iconic Tamil show Cooku With Comali, which created the most unlikely hybrid TV genre ever – comedy-based cooking competition! In Laughter Chefs, a string of TV stars, recognised via their work in fiction series, comedy shows and/or Bigg Boss, take part in a cooking competition, where the rules are limited to the bare minimum.

    There’s nothing here that can add to your knowledge, or inspire you, nor strike an emotional chord. It’s pure fun, but a lot of it at that, if you find cheesy Hindi comedy in the mainstream format palatable (all puns intended). I particularly liked the specific use of Bollywood songs in the background to enhance the comedy. It’s not a lazy selection of popular songs, but songs across the decades, including many from the 90s, that have been handpicked to dial up the humor at that very moment. I almost wanted to watch more just for this reason.

    Why is this show not being spoken about more? A search on social media only gives you fan posts, where fanbases of stars in the show are propping their favorites. But there is no media coverage in the trade media on this show, and its unexpected numbers. There’s no analysis on non-fiction comedy finally delivering in the prime-time, after The Kapil Sharma Show had faded away a couple of years ago.

    This absence of coverage is TV’s growing problem. As it is, not too many GEC properties are managing to make any impact whatsoever. But when one does, it has to rely on native channel marketing and organic buildup of word-of-mouth. There’s no social media or general media narrative at all. In an age of extreme content clutter, a worthy property may never find some of its potential audience, because television has moved out of the pop culture even for the most ‘mass’ audiences, it seems.

    Marketing departments at TV networks should be focusing on this as one of their objectives. Because programme, or even channel, marketing will only take you so far, if you are not relevant to the prevailing zeitgeist.

  • Difficult times for Direct-to-OTT films

    Difficult times for Direct-to-OTT films

    Shailesh KapoorEarlier this week, Ormax Media released the mid-year streaming report, on the top original content on OTT in India, in the first half of the year (link). The report is on expected lines, with Panchayat S3 and Heeramandi being the two most-watched OTT originals in the first half of 2024 in India (Mirzapur S3 was released in July and is not covered in this report). However, the decline of the direct-to-OTT film format stands out as a key streaming trend in 2024 so far.

    Only four direct-to-OTT films across languages (though all four happen to be Hindi films) have crossed an estimated viewership of 10 Million in the first half of the year: Amar Singh Chamkila, Murder Mubarak, Ae Watan Mere Watan, and Maharaj. In contrast, nine fiction series (8 Hindi and The Boys S4 from Hollywood) and four unscripted shows (reality/documentary formats) have managed to achieve this mark.

    The direct-to-OTT film format gained immense traction in 2020-21, during the lockdowns, when theatrical films were forced to release directly on the medium. This led to many films being commissioned for OTT, and many films that were originally conceived for a theatrical release curtail their ambition, and opt for a safer, invariably profitable, OTT release.

    Last year’s viewership report had Prime Video’s Bawaal at more than 20 Million estimated viewers in India, despite the film getting mixed reactions from the audience and the critics. Those numbers seem like a distant dream now. No film has touched the 13 Million mark in the first half of this year, and from what it looks like, we may not have one in the second half either.

    Platforms are not keen on commissioning direct-to-OTT films anymore. These films must be marketed as standalone properties, compared to theatrical releases, which come pre-marketed. Theatrical films dwarf direct-to-OTT films on viewership, and carry much higher potency to generate new subscriptions too. Direct-to-OTT films don’t offer the scope for franchise building either, like a series would do. Franchise shows dominate the viewership charts for all platforms.

    This spells bad news for cinema that lacks a certain minimum scale needed to make it big-sreeen worthy. With big films continuing to get bigger (Kalki 2898 AD alone accounted for 15% of India box office in the first half of 2024), the smaller, more intimate films, that rely on realistic storytelling rather than larger-than-life portrayals, were beginning to find a good destination on OTT. But that’s no longer the case.

    Where do such films go? If they release theatrically, they carry the tag of a flop when they come on streaming. They invariably underperform, and this creates further doubts at the platform end, on whether such films are worth spending money on.

    We may well be entering a phase when such cinema, that cannot appeal to the theatrical audience’s post-pandemic taste, will phase itself out. The makers would try and tell the same stories through series instead. But it’s not as if the series business is flourishing in 2024 either.

    The streaming honeymoon in India is clearly over. And the decline of the direct-to-OTT film format in 2024 is a telltale sign.

  • Entertainment in Limbo

    Entertainment in Limbo

    Shailesh KapoorIn more than 25 years of observing the Indian media and entertainment industry closely, there has never been a period like the one we are in currently. Every mainline sector of the industry is going through a phase of stagnancy or descendancy. It is difficult to say if any of this will change anytime in a hurry.

    The television industry has been struggling to hold on to pay subscribers. The drops are not sizeable in percentage terms. But in a country where more than 30% of the population still doesn’t have access to TV, growth should be a given. Instead, we are looking at stagnant numbers. Because BARC India hasn’t conducted a baseline study in a while, this data point is open to debate. On the revenue front, the EY-FICCI report projects positive revenue growth, but that’s a little hard to believe in the current scenario.

    On the content front, big-ticket cricket is the only marquee property type that television has to show. Nothing on mainline Hindi GECs is in that league anymore.

    Over the last couple of years, the popular narrative suggested streaming is the future, and television will slowly make way for it. But the streaming numbers paint a picture of their own. In our recently published OTT report, India’s digital video audience size went up by 14%, from 481 Mn to 547 Mn. But this entire growth comes from the AVOD segment, largely on the back of new audiences who have entered the category via YouTube and social media videos.

    As new audiences enter, one would expect those already there to move to the next level. In case of OTT, this would mean from AVOD to SVOD. That hasn’t happened at all, and the total paid subscriptions seem to have frozen in time. Audiences outside the Top 15 cities are not keen to pay for OTT subscriptions, and the Top 15 cities have reached their saturation point post the pandemic.

    The evident slowdown in content production makes the picture look gloomier. The number of originals on OTT this year may be a good 30-40% less than 2023. Next year could be even lower. Creators (producers, writers, directors) who were navigating multiple projects last year are now in sustenance mode.

    The theatrical category is doing decent numbers, but matching last year’s box-office will be a tough ask. In any case, a handful of big films are driving the box-office, and the long tail has weakened considerably, leading to a lot of scepticism, and a general drop in the number of Hindi releases. We are currently in one such period, where there are no major releases for several weeks after Stree 2’s release on Independence Day.

    The silver lining comes via positive signs on the larger consumer sentiment and demand in the country. Evidently, media advertising will ride on this sentiment. But that could be the only tangible positive for the Indian media industry currently.

    Hopefully, there are positive developments round the corner, which will pleasantly surprise us. For now, the next few months may be those of wait and watch.

  • Free over Pay: Reset Time for Streaming?

    Free over Pay: Reset Time for Streaming?

    Shailesh Kapoor2023 saw the release of 383 streaming originals in India, across languages and formats (fiction series, direct-to-OTT films, unscripted, etc), across all major OTT platforms (excluding YouTube and social media) put together. That’s more than one launch a day. The equivalent number in 2024 so far is a lot more modest. On a pro rata basis, the year can be expected to just about touch the 300 originals mark, a good 20% below last year.

    Clearly, streaming platforms are commissioning less content than before. The number of originals were significantly higher than 300 in both 2021 and 2022 (337 and 368 respectively). Effectively, we are back to the pre-pandemic levels in terms of supply of Indian OTT originals. Like the US, our peak TV phase (which we never really celebrated last year) is also over.

    One can call it a slowdown or a correction, depending on how one looks at things in general. But semantics apart, the signs are there for us to see. Streaming originals may not be the next big story anymore. The OTT category is still growing, with immense headroom for growth, given that only 38% of Indians watch digital videos at least once a month. But this growth will come via sports, YouTube, social media videos, news, comedy, catch-up television, etc., all of which are ‘free’ content forms on OTT in India today. On the paid side, new theatrical films were already a strong force, and are going to be get increasingly stronger compared to originals in the coming times.

    A huge creators economy has flourished in India on the back of the demand for OTT originals, and one can already sense the impact the supply slowdown is having on this economy. It doesn’t help that the film (theatrical) industry is not producing a lot of content either, especially in Hindi.

    In all this, traditional linear television, the punching bag of many, could emerge as an unlikely saviour. The TV industry has been on perception and business decline, but it’s nowhere close to losing relevance, and a bounce back is not entirely ruled out. But even there, free-to-air platforms, more than the pay ones, seem to be better positioned to drive some growth in the future.

    Has the pay-for-content endeavour in India died a premature death? The top platforms like Netflix and Prime Video would choose to differ. And indeed, “death” may not be the accurate term. But pay TV or pay OTT are going to go through their toughest challenge yet, in the coming year or two. And all eyes will be on the big players in the category to shape the trajectory ahead.