MxMIndia

Author: Shailesh Kapoor

  • What started off as an outlier phenomenon has now gained mainstream significance, writes Shailesh Kapoor

    The Saffron Cinema Movement

     

     

    By Shailesh Kapoor

     

    Shailesh KapoorMarch 2022 saw the release of The Kashmir Files, a film whose box-office performance was unlike any other Hindi film before it. The film had no cast or credentials of note, but went on to gross almost Rs 300 crore at the Indian box-office, aided by inorganic methods, such as corporate bookings and political push. The film features in the list of Top 20 grossing Hindi films of all time. In this article, I wrote about how the film is an outlier, if there ever was one.

     

    In May this year, there was a sense of déjà vu with The Kerala Story, a similarly-titled film that relies on the same premise – religious polarisation to entice the Hindu majority to watch the film – to get audience attention. The political support to The Kerala Story was less overt, but the film has managed to do almost as well as The Kashmir Files, grossing about Rs 265 crore over its extended run at the cinemas in India.

     

    While the initial business of The Kashmir Files was inorganic, it is impossible to gross such huge numbers for films of this scale, unless they appeal to a wider audience base. Clearly, both The Kashmir Files and The Kerala Story managed to do that. Entertainment, which is often cited as the primary, if not the only, reason to watch movies, was not the driver though. The films were watched because they represent an ideology, which a large section of the audience, espouse. An ideology that is also reflective in their political choices: Both films have performed better in states where Hindutva is a core component of the political narrative.

     

    Today sees the release of the Ramayan-inspired pan-India film Adipurush. Unlike the other two films, this one is not communal in its content, as it does not have a community (read Muslims) being shown in a negative light. However, the resonance with the film’s theme is unmistakably religious and cultural. The film has songs titled Jai Shri Ram and Ram Siya Ram, both of which are trending on top of the music charts. Marketing of the film is relying on distinctly religious elements, such as a seat being left unoccupied in each cinema hall, for Lord Hanuman to watch the film!

     

    Headlined by Prabhas, who is the No 1 star in Telugu cinema, the film will be driven by his stardom in his core market (AP-Telangana), but by its thematic resonance in the Hindi markets. It is expected to gross Rs 90-100 cr across India on its first day alone, aided to the extent of 15-20% by corporate block bookings. Political support is certain to follow, and unless the content is too weak to sustain, Adipurush can be expected to be one of the Top 10 grossers of all time in Indian cinema.

     

    Last year’s major Hindi release Brahmastra also grossed big numbers, registered the best opening day for an original Hindi language film since the re-opening of theatres post the pandemic (Pathaan now holds that distinction). While Brahamstra has more ‘modern’ elements like a young lead starcast, superhero genre and visual effects, its core theme relies heavily on Hindu mythology too.

     

    Clearly, we are seeing a sort of trend emerging here. One could look at these films as being either ‘propaganda’-driven (The Kashmir Files or The Kerala Story), or propaganda-free content that relies on cultural and religious resonance (Adipurush). But together, they represent an emerging genre of cinema that digs into Hindu faith and mythology, and its political extension Hindutva, to appeal to its target audience.

     

    It’s almost certain that many such scripts are being penned even as you read this, and 2024-25 may see a lot more films of this nature being released. What started off as an outlier phenomenon has now gained mainstream significance. Whether it’s a good thing for our cinema, and for the society at large, is another topic for another day.

     

    The debate on whether cinema shapes society, or society influences cinema, is a complex one. But in the current times, Hindi cinema seems to be clearly witnessing the latter. The Saffron Cinema Movement is here. And it’s just a start!

     

    Shailesh Kapoor is Founder and CEO, Ormax Media. He writes on MxMIndia on Fridays. His views here are personal.

     

  • Content Innovation: AI and Beyond

    Content Innovation: AI and Beyond

    Shailesh KapoorIt’s hard to have a business discussion these days without a mention of AI very early into the conversation. Since the emergence of ChatGPT, artificial intelligence has been a buzzword that everyone wants to use. And not for the wrong reasons entirely. In the digital age, the role technology can play in businesses across the spectrum, including media and entertainment, is undeniable. And we have not seen it all. Not just as yet, anyway.

    Innovation is at the heart of many businesses, often featuring in core values of many companies, including some of the most traditional, brick-and-mortar ones. Technology is at the center of this innovation, and AI is expected to lead the way towards innovative creation and transformation of businesses.

    But there’s an irony in this idea too. I asked ChatGPT to define innovation in a business context. I got: “Innovation in the context of business refers to the process of creating new ideas, products, services, processes, or business models that add value to customers, improve efficiency, drive growth, or create competitive advantage. It involves transforming creative ideas into tangible outcomes that meet market needs or solve existing problems in new and better ways”.

    If we look at the keywords in this suitably verbose definition, the creative abilities of the human mind seem central to many of them. The deep linkage of innovation with technology can, hence, be a limiting thought. Especially because it can make those in “innovator” roles think only in one way. Yes, that’s the irony, right there.

    Tech-led innovation is great, but it will be heartbreaking if innovation begins to lose the human touch. In technology companies, this is a non-issue, because the innovators are also the technology guys. But if we look at something like entertainment, innovators are essentially writers, producers, directors, actors, marketers, salespersons, etc. The nature of the product relies on giving the audiences something compelling yet fresh. Self-learning technologies could simply be at cross-purposes with this idea.

    Suggestions that Generative AI can be used to write movie scripts is preposterous, for example. Think of the three most memorable movie dialogue lines of all time, across any language, and ask yourself: Can a “human-like” bot create the same human-like magic? We all know the answer.

    It is therefore crucial that entertainment businesses carefully craft the dos and don’ts of how to use technology for innovation. Technology, and AI within it, can be a content creator and distributor’s best friend. But like with all friendships, expectations must be set right. And the entertainment business worldwide runs the risk of erring on the wrong side here.

  • The Rise & Rise of the IPL

    The Rise & Rise of the IPL

    Source: www.iplt20.com

     

    Shailesh KapoorThe 17th edition of the Indian Premier League kicks off tonight. To say that it’s the biggest media event in India by some margin will be stating the obvious. The gap between IPL and other big-ticket properties has only grown wider over the last decade.

    The stature of IPL is reflected in our new report, titled The Ormax Sports Audience Report: 2024. The sampling of IPL in the 612 million audience base of cricket in India is higher than that of the ICC World Cup, by a good six percentage points. The list of most-recalled sporting franchises in India (across sports) sees a clean sweep, with the 10 IPL teams taking the top 10 positions, ahead of Manchester United and Patna Pirates, which are the most-recalled leagues in football and kabaddi respectively.

    In its first few years, IPL faced its share of controversies. But in its second phase, the league has been able to put cricket first, and that has helped it move away from the erstwhile imagery of a flippant brand, towards building credibility as a talent platform. This shift is fundamental in nature, and has held IPL in good stead.

    IPL is now a way of life for those in the media industry. Till not too many years ago, there was a lot of chatter about how GECs should dodge the IPL googly. Now, everyone has a playbook of sorts, and it’s not a topic to lose sleep over, anymore.

    This year’s IPL will be held amid the political fervor around the General Elections. News-wise, IPL will play second fiddle. But in terms of monetisation and viewership, it will continue to stay at the top. The stronger franchises are profitable now, and BCCI continues to get richer with each edition. Yet, there’s ample room for growth, as fan bases are continuing to build, especially for franchises that have made late entries, or taken their time to get going.

    This year’s IPL will also see younger captains across most teams. The average age of the 10 captains this year is 30 years, which is three years younger than the 33 years average age in IPL 2023. The old guard is passing the baton to the new, and that’s always a good thing, especially in a talent platform like IPL.

    Amid all the excitement, the biggest highlight of this IPL is going to be the return of Rishabh Pant. The actor survived a near-fatal road accident in December 2022, and his incredible recovery over the last 14 months has been a miraculous one. How National Cricket Academy has helped Pant get back to match readiness against all odds is perhaps the best example of BCCI money being put to great use.

    Pant is leading the Delhi Capitals side, and their first match is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, at Mohali. We can expect a roaring reception to a special talent, who first got noticed via the IPL itself, before making it big at the international stage. I won’t be surprised if he makes this IPL his very own, to announce a comeback we have all been waiting for. Game on!

  • Bias by Exclusion: News in the Times of Elections

    Bias by Exclusion: News in the Times of Elections

    Shailesh KapoorWe are exactly three weeks away from the first phase of polls in the General Elections. Expectedly, elections are dominating news coverage, and the action is only going to heat up over the next two months, leading up to the results on June 4.

    Historically, pre-elections and elections coverage on television news has been about programming ideas and access to the top politicians. The psephology part stopped being a differentiator a while ago, with opinion polls and exit polls being commoditised over time. Channels that could create engaging formats, have more feet on ground, and connect their viewers to the biggest names on the ballot, performed better than their competitors.

    Early indicators suggest that programming formats may not be the differentiating factor this year. Channels have maintained their typical debating formats, focusing on election-related topics, but barely breaking the template in the process. Yes, there is ground coverage, and it will pick up as we get closer to actual polling, but a lot of that is restricted to specific timeslots, often outside the primetime.

    What is striking is that channels have well-defined narratives, and are engineering their programming around it. In an election where most experts believe the outcome is a foregone conclusion, the narrative is easier to script. Yet, it is difficult to miss the political agenda behind these set narratives.

    For example, the electoral bonds data released by SBI a few weeks ago was arguably the biggest political story of March, till the arrest of the Delhi CM. But it was hard to find a debate on the electoral bonds on mainline news channels. Even as YouTube news channels covered the story in considerable detail, TV channels chose to turn a blind eye, barring a token story or two.

    Story selection is the most potent instrument of bias with a news channel today. Because if you choose to not show something, that’s the end of that anyway. One could argue that certain stories, like Manipur riots in 2023, do not generate ratings, and hence, are not commercially viable on mass television. That is a contentious argument anyway, given that principles of sound journalism would demand a separation between editorial and business. But with electoral bonds coverage, or the lack of it, even that argument doesn’t hold.

    It will be a pleasant surprise to see one of the mainline TV news channels stand out in the election clutter with an original and thought-provoking programming approach. Thankfully, there’s online news to fall back on!

  • In a highly heterogenous Hindi market, what is ‘compelling content’ is a far more complex question than a far more homogenous (and better educated) market like Kerala, writes Shailesh Kapoor

    Shailesh Kapoor: Hindi cinema takes a summer break, even as Malayalam cinema soars

    Shailesh KapoorWe are in the thick of the elections season, and in the middle of a typically exciting IPL. It is set to be a fertile summer for the media and entertainment business in India, but for one sector. The theatrical business in Hindi language will see an unusual lull, lasting at least a couple of months, if not more.

    Two films clashed on Eid this week, and from now till at least early July, all we have is a line-up of low-budget, non-starcast releases. While South cinema continues to have a somewhat busier lineup, Hindi cinema is going to be on a break of sorts. It’s an unprecedented occurrence in my living memory, except when the industry was impacted by extraneous factors like demonetisation or the pandemic.

    2023 was a strong year for the theatrical business, and four Hindi language films (Jawan, Gadar 2, Pathaan and Animal) headlined the post-pandemic recovery of the Indian theatrical business, which touched an all-time high domestic gross of INR 12,226 Crore. The follow-up in 2023 started on a fine note, and the first quarter grossed about 900 Cr, which is only about 10% lower than the same period last year, despite no mega film like Pathaan (Jan 2023 release). But the second quarter could struggle to be even close to half of the first quarter’s number, and one will have to wait for the second half of the year for catch-up.

    This uneven release cycle is reflective of the general lack of confidence in the Hindi film industry on viability of mid-range films at the box office. With the arrival of streaming, such films have struggled at the box office, even as the bigger films have gotten bigger with time (see this analysis). This has led to several projects being revisited as OTT films, or being shelved altogether.  Theatres in the Hindi markets simply won’t have enough viable software to play over the next three months.

    In sharp contrast is Malayalam cinema, which is on a dream run in 2024. Manjummel Boys, which released in February, is the highest-grossing Malayalam film of all-time, having grossed about 160 cr in India, and still going strong. It has been supported by a slew of compelling Malayalam films, and the share of Malayalam cinema stands at the box-office currently stands at about 18%, which is a staggering three times its share in 2022 and 2023.

    Malayalam cinema is high on content (theme, concept, story, etc.), and relies far lesser on stars than its Telugu, Tamil and Hindi counterparts. As on date, Malayalam cinema has grossed 80% more than Tamil cinema this year, a unimaginable finding, given that Tamil theatrical audience in India in 2023 were 2.5 times that of Malayalam, and Tamil footfalls were three times those of Malayalam.

    In 2024, this could be the emerging theme at the Indian box office: Mega blockbusters will gross big numbers, but compelling content will drive growth and consistency. But in a highly heterogenous Hindi market, what is ‘compelling content’ is a far more complex question than a far more homogenous (and better educated) market like Kerala. But that’s another story, for another day!

  • Two Types of News Media: A Tale of Two Indias?

    Two Types of News Media: A Tale of Two Indias?

    Shailesh KapoorThe divide between linear TV and digital (OTT/ streaming) in India is well established now. IPL perhaps is the easiest way to explain it. Both in terms of viewership and revenue, linear and digital are in the 40-60% share bracket. This near-equal split aptly tells the story of two media.

    But in examples like the IPL, the story is primarily about audience size and monetisation, but never about the content. Because the content is essentially the same, barring some paraphernalia. This is also true for catch-up television, where digital may be generating 20-30% of audience size, but the content is again the same.

    But there’s one category where the divide is fundamental in nature, and extends to content: News. It’s election season, and news is the genre of the season, apart from the IPL. Till a few weeks ago, this election was being called a no-contest. But no election is, even if many feel the result is a foregone conclusion. Things have heated up, and not always in a good way. We are still another five weeks away from the results, and we can expect more fireworks, to use a mild word.

    If you watch news on TV channels (or their YouTube feeds/ channels), you will see a certain kind of coverage. But if you follow the elections in digital media, including YouTube, you will see something very different. It’s a tale of two Indias, so to speak.

    Last week, PM Modi made a highly controversial speech in Rajasthan, where he specifically singled out a religious community, and quite uncharitably so. The way this story has shaped up in linear TV news channels and digital media is remarkably different. The digital coverage is more analytical and evidence-based in nature, while that on TV is more dramatic and confrontational. Of course, it also means very different political stances on the speech, in the two media.

    And that’s true for all political news, in general, today. It’s not just the content, but even the tone, tenor, and treatment are poles apart. This segmentation of the news genre is compelling, but also tricky, because it means that the nature of the media is deciding the discourse!

    Digital news is nowhere close to linear TV news on monetisation. Almost all of it is free, and YouTube monetisation is hard to come by, unless you have big numbers. Some digital news platforms do not take advertising to make the larger point about free media. Relying on subscriber support can be hard, especially in a category where there are too many options available. But it’s a fundamental stance these platforms have taken.

    Hence, unlike the IPL, the share of viewership or monetisation is not in the 40-60% range, but closer to 20-80% or even 10-90%. If the content was the same, digital news would have been on the fringes, battling irrelevance. But because of the content contrast, it manages to breathe. At least for the moment.

  • Summer Diaries: Elections, Cricket & More

    Summer Diaries: Elections, Cricket & More

    Shailesh KapoorWe are hitting peak summers, and elections are generating their share of heat too. Having watched election coverage over the years, it is impossible to not experience déjà vu. With all the growth in technology, election rallies continue to be a prominent election feature since the 1950s. I first remember watching election rallies in the late 80s, and visuals from the current elections look remarkably similar, just better in video quality.

    Elections are one place where the poor and the rural population, otherwise ignored by media for most part, comes into the mainstream, simply because each vote carries equal value, and the numbers are heavily stacked up outside the big cities and the affluent classes. And this hasn’t changed over decades now.

    But one thing that has changed is the use of the word “manifesto”. Over so many elections, one got a feeling that the term was moving out of election lexicon, and there didn’t seem to be even basic awareness about it among the general voters. But the Congress manifesto being targeted by BJP has stirred up things, and it is hard to find any political speech or interview where the M-word is not uttered.

    We are less than halfway into these long elections, and still four-and-a-half weeks away from June 4, which is the results day. June will be the more interesting month compared to May, as results lead to headlines, irrespective of how emphatic or fractured the mandate is.

    Interestingly, the T20 World Cup kicks off in the same week, and India play their first game on June 5, followed by a marquee clash with Pakistan on June 9. Even the T20 World Cup is month-long now, extending from June 2 to June 29. The venue may be West Indies and USA, but BCCI’s might ensures all India games are 8PM IST. After all, there’s an IPL slot to fill!

    India looks for its first World Cup win in this format since the nobody-saw-it-coming win in the inaugural edition in 2007. But irrespective of whether that happens or not, we are in for a double bill of politics and cricket in June.

    Meanwhile, Malayalam cinema is making waves, and setting all kind of crazy records, which deserve a separate piece of its own someday. After a euphoric 2023, the theatrical business has been tepid so far this year, but for the astonishing performance of Malayalam cinema, which is set to cross its 2023 annual number in just 4.5 months in 2024!

    And since I frequently rant in this column about the lack of innovation in Hindi GEC content, I should take a moment to acknowledge a trend that surprised me, and very pleasantly so. My colleagues Keerat Grewal and Aakriti Bhatia have put together this report on how Hindi GEC women are not housewives anymore. It’s a crazy trend, and even if you have no interest in GECs, I highly recommend reading it, just as a showcase of how data can be so powerful in revealing trends, and in such a simple manner too.

  • IPL’s Run Feast & the Future of Cricket
    From Wikipedia

    IPL’s Run Feast & the Future of Cricket

    Shailesh KapoorWe are in the second half of another engrossing edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL0. While the beats of IPL are now all too familiar, this season has managed to catch our attention because of the consistent stream of high scores we have witnessed. Two days ago, Sunrisers Hyderabad chased down 166 in less than 10 overs, without losing a wicket.

    The Hyderabad team has been at the forefront of the run feast that’s been unleased in IPL 2024. They account for three of the Top 4 team scores this season, including the top entry: a staggering 287 vs. Bangalore. In the 2024 edition, the 250-mark has been breached eight times already. And we are still 14 games away from the tournament’s end. In contrast, the 2023 edition saw 250 being breached only once, over the entire event!

    This is not an increment change. It’s a sign that the game may be evolving faster than one imagines. 300 is not far away, one imagines. And who knows what the upper limit in a 20-overs innings could be.

    Purists would argue that this makes the sport all too one-sided in the batter’s favour. But the audience, who are essentially there from entertainment, are certainly not complaining. And there is Test cricket for the purists anyway. It’s difficult to compare IPL viewership over the years because the digital component does not have transparency on viewership reporting, and the split between linear and digital continues to change with each passing year. But it’s safe to say that we may be in the middle of the most-watched IPL season of all time.

    The IPL will make way for the T20 World Cup, and the IPL run feast will invariably extend to T20 international games too. This may have been a boost cricket needed, for some sort of global expansion, which the governing body of the sport has been trying for years now, often half-heartedly, mostly unsuccessfully. If only they muster the courage to pull the plug on the ODI format, the future of cricket may not be that bad after all.

    In our latest sports report released in March this year, the awareness and viewership numbers for some of the foreign T20 leagues, especially the Big Bash (Australia), Caribbean Premier League and Pakistan Super League were very healthy. It shows that the Indian audience has developed an appetite for T20-formatted entertainment over time, and this will only rise if we have more high-scoring games. Perhaps it’s time to bring the Champions League, an idea that was too early for its times back in 2008.

    Meanwhile, with 14 games to go, I’m rooting for 300. Sunrisers have two home games to go, and we may not have to wait too long.

  • All Eyes on June 4

    All Eyes on June 4

    Shailesh KapoorTill a couple of months ago, the fate of the now-ongoing elections was signed and sealed. From them till now, there has been more excitement, even though the outcome is unlikely to be different from the one originally predicted, going by various accounts. June 4, the designated day for counting and results, is set to be a huge day from a media perspective, even though being a working day would curtail daytime viewership.

    Our news channels have not surprised us one bit during their coverage of these elections, predictably toeing the lines they have for almost a decade now. Yet, it is difficult to not appreciate the relentless hard work that a political journalist, however biased, must put in during elections as long-drawn as these have been.

    What has been different about the media playout of these elections is the increasing role social media, especially viral WhatsApp and Reels, have played in information dissemination. While the impact of such platforms was evident even in the previous two elections, it continues to get more mainstream, given the growing audience base with each passing year.

    We have also seen some young politicians provide entertain in good measure, infusing fresh energy amidst election fatigue, and providing fodder for viral videos too. Akhilesh Yadav is an old hand, but he has been in good form this year in his rallies. Priyanka Gandhi has impressed with her deft oration in Hindi. Kanhaiya Kumar has been expectedly feisty in his speeches. But the one who has really stood out is Tejashwi Yadav. I’m sure we will hear more of him soon.

    June 4 punctuates two big cricket matches: the IPL final about a week before it, and an India-Pakistan World T20 clash a week after. Between these three days, we can expect huge sums of advertising moneys to be spent on media, both traditional and digital.

    The day I’m looking forward to even more is June 1. It’s the last day of polling, and in the evening, the Election Commission embargo on sharing exit poll findings will be lifted. More than what the exit polls have to say, I’m looking for some humor in the mad rush one can expect our news channels to indulge in, that evening. Over the last two months, several pollsters have been on news channels, giving cryptic, qualitative hints, when they should be faithfully abstaining from media presence, in true spirit of the very logical embargo. But it’s hard to resist media coverage, I guess.

    By all accounts, second week of June should see return to media normalcy, unless we witness the unlikely scenario of a hung Parliament. But that’s still two exciting weeks away.

  • The traction this idea has got from audiences is quite overwhelming, writes Shailesh Kapoor

    Shailesh Kapoor: Cinema Lovers Day: Bollywood’s New Demand Stimulator

    Shailesh KapoorToday is Cinema Lovers Day. Yes, that’s the name the Multiplex Association of India (MAI) has given to an occasion they have celebrated a few times since they first came up with the idea in September 2022. Tickets in major multiplexes (often excluding South India) are priced at ₹99, to stimulate demand. The day has been used tactically in periods of lull in Hindi cinema, when no big-ticket films are running, or scheduled to release soon.

    The traction this idea has got from audiences is quite overwhelming. For instance, Mr. & Mrs. Mahi, today’s Hindi release starring Rajkummar Rao and Janhvi Kapoor, was tracking at ₹3.2 Cr first-day box office in our forecast tracker Ormax Cinematix, before Cinema Lovers Day was announced three days ago. The film is expected to collect about ₹5.5-6.0 Cr, possibly even higher.

    These collections come at almost half the ticket price (average ticket price for such films tends to be about ₹180 on the opening day. Which means that the demand must increase four-fold, for the collections to double. One doesn’t need more stark evidence on the impact of ticket price on cinema-going. Or so it would seem.

    If lower ticket prices could increase demand four-fold, and double the collections, every day should be celebrated a Cinema Lovers Day. But it’s easy to see that this tactic works because it’s sporadic, say like the Prime Day on Amazon.

    From this rigorous analysis conducted by our team in 2023, it seems evident that ticket prices have an impact on the decision to watch a film in a theatre, but only incrementally so. The content’s appeal, determined by its cast, genre, trailer, music, etc., is the primary decision-making factor.

    The performance at the box office on Cinema Lovers Day may suggest that the analysis above is faulty. But it’s the co-existence of these two ideas is fascinating: Audiences are not overly price sensitive when it comes to a film they really want to watch, but when a discount offer is available, they will grab it with both hands for a film that qualifies as a decent watch in their books.

    One, then, hopes MAI doesn’t milk this idea dry. It’s a great idea for seasonal use, possibly even once a quarter. But make it a fixture, and the box office would not respond. Audiences may end up waiting for lower ticket price offers for bigger films too, which then makes those films unviable, because the demand cannot increase four-fold if you have an organic potential of 50-70% occupancy.

    On a side note, the name Cinema Lovers Day amuses me. If at all, the ₹99 idea is the anti-thesis of “loving” cinema. Cinephiles would be the least price sensitive, and will display higher urgency to watch new films at regular ticket prices anyway. The discount is actually targeting the casual audiences, who don’t necessarily “love” cinema, but don’t mind a visit to a theatre once in a while, to hangout with their friends, or to simply enjoy the air-conditioner in the scorching summer heat.

    But why quibble over a name, when the idea is working. Cinema Lovers Day is here to stay. The next edition may not be too far away.

  • Exit Polls: A ‘No Confidence’ Motion

    Exit Polls: A ‘No Confidence’ Motion

    AI generated image showing an abstract representation of the discrepancies between the Exit Poll results and the actual results declared on June 4.

     

    Shailesh KapoorThe marathon elections are finally past us. But not without a result not many saw coming when the elections season started three months ago. The results on June 4 came as a surprise to many, particularly because a plethora of exit polls funded by mainline news channels of the country had predicted a resounding victory for the Narendra Modi-led NDA, with almost all of them giving the alliance 350+ seats, and some even predicting ‘400 paar’.

    As we know now, even ‘300 par’ didn’t materialise. Since then, there has been intense debate about exit polls, and whether their inaccurate predictions are simply a case of incompetence on the part of multiple agencies, or a result of malafide intent to influence the stock market. I have been asked this question more than a few times over the last 10 days, in my capacity as the head of a media research firm.

    While I’m no stockmarket expert, the scam allegations seem a bit far-fetched. It would take multiple agencies to comply with the perpetrators of the scam, put their reputation on the line, and hope that they make some illegal money off it. The history of scams suggest they are ‘designed’ in a way that they are under the radar, far from the public eye. Exit polls were anything but that. In any case, I don’t see how we will know any more on this topic anytime soon.

    The incompetence argument is a lot more persuasive one. Despite large sample sizes (while not all polls reveal their methodology and sample design, some do), and the claim to have covered all 543 constituencies, and represented different demographic segments adequately, how do so many polls get it wrong? In my opinion, the incompetence doesn’t lie in their ability to conduct field surveys, but in their lack of confidence to look at the findings dispassionately. All quantitative research that comes with the responsibility of predicting an outcome will operate on ranges, rather than exact numbers. And it’s now evident that the exit polls were leaned towards the higher ends of their ranges, and probably stretched them further. One poll made sure its upper end was 401, and another went for the round figure: 400!

    Over the course of this year’s election coverage, we have seen many pollsters become election experts, going beyond analysing their data, and entering domains of political analysis that’s best left to journalists with their ears to the ground. Bafflingly, many editors of mainline news channels have encouraged this, by giving pollsters a platform on their shows every night, even during the period when the Election Commission embargo on exit poll results was in play.

    It may be hard to resist fame, but if it comes at the cost of objectivity, a pollster must examine if it’s worth it. As it is, our news channels operate like echo chambers, and it is hard to not get influenced by their narratives if they are platforming you as an important talking head.

    So, the pollsters have gone wrong in their minds, probably working backwards from a pre-decided outcome they talked themselves into believing. It’s impossible to say what conclusions a more objective analysis on their data would have led them to conclude.

    In any case, exit polls seem to quite a wasteful indulgence for news channels. But it’s a vicious loop, because no channel wants to miss out on an evening’s hype. Just like no pollster wants to be the only one who got it wrong!

  • Crumbling of the Bollywood star system is imminent

    Crumbling of the Bollywood star system is imminent

    Shailesh KapoorOver the last year or two, there has been escalating media coverage how remunerations demanded by Bollywood stars are making Hindi film-making an increasingly-difficult business. The top rung of stars, such as the three Khans, have either turned producers, or forgone their fee against what’s called a ‘backend’ deal (typically referring to a distribution or licensing deal), the next line continues to operate on fixed fee structures, where the numbers increased significantly since before the pandemic. There’s also a lot of conversation about star entourages, and how ridiculous their costs are.

    Now all this would just be gossip, if the stars could justify these fees through their box-office performance. But that’s not happening at all. The biggest ‘Hindi’ language film of the first six months of 2024 is likely to be the dubbed Hindi version of Kalki 2898 AD, which released yesterday. A non-starcast, concept-led film Munjya is set to cross the Rs 100 cr mark, even as star-led titles made at much higher budgets, such as Bade Miyan Chote Miyan, Maidaan, and Chandu Champion, have fallen well short.

    For a year or two after the pandemic, streaming platforms were in a mad rush to acquire theatrical films. Since these deals happened before the theatrical release, the star power came into the picture. With time, and facing their own share of challenges related to stagnant subscriber growth and profitability, streamers have become conscious, and are often insisting on deal structures that have box office linkages.The message is clear: If the star cannot pull an audience in the theatres, he (or she) is not ‘saleable’ on OTT either.

    Movie channels in linear television have been on the decline anyway in the post-NTO world. Licence fees for satellite rights is no longer a prominent item on the P&L of most films. The reliance on theatrical (box-office) revenues is only going to go up in the coming year or two. And all evidence suggests that stars cannot pull in the audience anymore on their own strength, and need the story or the concept to work for the film to stand any chance on the theatrical front.

    It is hard to imagine how any of this is sustainable. Hindi film producers cannot even make films that go direct to OTT anymore. There is no demand for such films, either from the streamer or the audience side. There is only one way out: Stars must understand that the audiences and the marketplace has evolved, and bite into the humble pie that a pay cut can be. They can also be a lot more prudent in their film selection, aligning it with evolving audience tastes and expectations in a digital-first, post-pandemic era.

    Whether that will happen is anyone’s guess.