The world knows this. In a special arrangement with MxMIndia, the platform trusted by discerning advertising, media and marketing professionals, ​TAM AdEx, a division of TAM India, has been providing weekly scans of spends across television, print and radio.
Here we bring you the all-important early indicators of how festive spending has been in September 2017.
Read on and Enrich yourself.
By A Correspondent
​India​ is recovering from aftereffects of demoneti​sation introduced in Q4 2016 and the currency deficit faced during this period has helped the country leapfrog towards a lesser cash economy. The country is set to move towards a uniform tax regime with Goods & Services Tax (GST), effective July 2017, while this fuels growth it is likely to create a fleeting disruption in the short term when the industry realigns and adapts to the new tax structure. GDP in real terms is estimated to grow +7.2% in 2017 compared to +6.8% in 2016 according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). Within the next decade India will gallop to become one of the largest consumer markets in the world according. Rising affluence, ease of doing business, urbani​s​ation and enabling infrastructure will contribute to this status.
Advertising revenue which is accounts for 0.38% of GDP (gross domestic product) is likely to grow CAGR of +12.6% to touch INR 992bn by 2021. Within Advertising, offline is estimated to grow at a CAGR of +9.7%, while digital will grow at +25.5% CAGR in the next 5 years. Mobile is projected to overtake desktop by 2020. Television will still be the largest media in 2021 with a market share of 39%.
In 2017, Adex is estimated to grow +11.5% to touch INR 611bn, predicts ​Magna, ,the intelligence, investment and innovation strategies agency of IPG Mediabrands​ (earlier called MagnaGlobal)​. Adspends will be driven by sectors like social, fin-tech, and payment banks, telecom service, content distribution platforms etc., in addition to FMCG, Auto and Ecommerce
TELEVISION the foundation of advertising spends continues to dominate the industry with its market share of 41% and will grow+10.3%. With BARC release of rural audience data, new revenue stream in the form of FTA channels have gained significance. Quality locali
​s​ed content and HD experience will help regional TV to keep their audiences hooked. Sporting leagues outside of Cricket is finding way to generate mass involvement and Television will play a larger role. Star Sports Tamil demonstrating tangible results will increase fandom for local/state level formats.
PRINT in India has been successful in guarding its revenues well with revenue expected to grow by +5.7% and India is one of the large markets where circulation is still growing thanks to rising literacy. The second biggest category with 36% share despite growing is losing its share to Digital year-on-year. Traditional sectors like auto, telecom and education will contribute to ad spend growth. After a gap of 3 years, the category will invigorate with the release of new IRS and help publishers reali ​s​e merit based value. Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) measuring digital consumption will lend authority and help in moneti​s​ation. We expect the ad spends to grow beyond the estimated +5.7% in 2017 thanks to government’s focused campaign to populari​s​e their marquee initiatives.
DIGITAL will grow +28% and within digital, mobile is driving spends with a growth rate of +65.7%. The launch of 4G triggered low price data products there by increase in usage. With improved speed Video, native and customi ​s​ed content has tremendous potential to grow. BARC putting out a road map on digital panel takes India one step closer to a robust measurement not only for digital but also to showcase capabilities in incremental metrics. With expanding content library, OTT viewing is no more restricted to national languages. Aggressive push by Amazon and Netflix to address the original content gap will attract larger base of audience. With mobile increasingly being the choice of access, traffic will be higher than desktop resulting in advertising propelled by mobile which is estimated to grow at CAGR of 48%. E-commerce, Telecom, Auto, BFSI, Durables are large contributors to the revenue.
RADIO reach with around 150 new frequencies sold during phase III is set to deepen further and will help generate incremental revenue. We estimate radio to grow +13% and continue to grow at CAGR of 13.8% in the next 5 years. Currently the measurement is limited to 4 cities, widening this will help radio increase its share from the current 4%
OOH will grow +12% in 2017. Technology integration will increase effectiveness and helps drive adspends. Urbani ​s​ation in the form of new Metro lines and smart cities, moderni​s​ation of Indian Railways and their new advertising policy etc., will provide opportunities for a planned development of quality assets and also push the industry to innovate and move beyond billboards. Regional cinema is pushing boundaries to outdo Bollywood cinema which augurs well for the industry.
Table 1 – Media owner revenue by category in INR Cr Net
| Media Category | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Television | 24516 | 27416 | 31062 | 34774 | 39012 |
| 20644 | 21916 | 23348 | 24696 | 25884 | |
| Digital | 10227 | 12973 | 16538 | 20394 | 24868 |
| OOH | 3552 | 3979 | 4530 | 5074 | 5642 |
| Radio | 2227 | 2539 | 2920 | 3329 | 3762 |
| Total | 61166 | 68822 | 78398 | 88266 | 99167 |
| Media Category | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Television | 24516 | 27416 | 31062 | 34774 | 39012 |
| 20644 | 21916 | 23348 | 24696 | 25884 | |
| Digital | 10227 | 12973 | 16538 | 20394 | 24868 |
| OOH | 3552 | 3979 | 4530 | 5074 | 5642 |
| Radio | 2227 | 2539 | 2920 | 3329 | 3762 |
| Total | 61166 | 68822 | 78398 | 88266 | 99167 |
Table 2 – Traditional Vs Digital Adex growth rate
Table 3 – Mobile gaining shares over desktop
By A Correspondent
Sports sponsorship spending grew by a little over 19%. Spending via sports sponsorship accounted for 11.5% of the Indian AdEx (AdEx numbers from GroupM This Year, Next Year 2016 report) in the Indian market. While media spends contributed to the largest chunk of the pie, followed by ground sponsorship, the total size of sports advertising rose to INR 6400 crore / $941 million, a big jump up from the INR 5363.3 crore / $825 million garnered in 2015. All this and more is part of ‘Sporting Nation in the Making’, the four fourth edition of the sports sponsorship report compiled by ESP Properties- the sports and entertainment programming specialist arm of GroupM, and leading sports portal SportzPower.
The report delves into the evolution of technology and its effects on the mainstream digital landscape. An important insight of this report, notes a communique, is that both cricket and non-cricket held their own trajectory, and together pushed the industry forward. The year 2016 also seemed like a make-or-break year for some leagues, with some repositioning themselves to garner greater viewership, while others launching with a hungry audience base. Indian Cricket was on a high in 2016, both on the field and off it.
Said Vinit Karnik- Business Head, ESP Properties: “The report insights are the key to devising more refined viewer engagement. Gone are the days of male dominance in sports viewership. The year’s biggest chunk of spectators came from women and kids. This is ground-breaking data for brands to take that much desired leap of faith and traverse new grounds. Cricket continues to be the poster child for sponsorships, and non-cricket sports still have a fair leap to make to match revenue. However it is interesting to focus on the mushrooming of a very defined health and fitness consciousness within the country. Young digital India is breaking barriers and creating new records especially when it comes to live feeds. Their smartphones are their all access pass to the “insider world†of sports, sportsmen and their strengths and weaknesses. Sports start-ups are trending and the success achieved by league-based events across multiple sports indicates a strong potential to consume sports other than cricket.â€
Added Thomas Abraham, Co-Founder, Sportz Power and continues: “Demonetisation disruptions aside, 2016 was a great year for the industry and this year will be even more so. Team sponsorships may have experienced certain upheavals and newer leagues will change the sporting diaspora even more so this year. However, what remains to be seen is franchise sustenance, endorsement rates and the manner in which technology and data influence these numbers. We expect 2017 to only get bigger, not just on the back of growth from the leagues that are now up and running, but also from new kids on the block that are debuting in the year – Table Tennis being a notable one.â€
Sporting Nation in The Making – IV
By Labonita Ghosh
In February 2016, when Madison predicted that the Indian advertising industry would grow by 16%, it seemed overly-optimistic. Now it seems that Madison’s annual forecast report for that year would’ve been on the mark but for a small detail: a ‘tsunami’ called demonetisation. This derailed the entire industry, which eventually grew by only 12.5% last year as against the projected 16.8 %. Demonetisation also knocked off Rs 1,650 crore to settle at an industry size of Rs 49,480 crore, in the wake of a cash crunch and a drop in consumer off-take, which led to a lot of advertisers pulling out of campaigns in the last two months of 2016.
Sadly, we haven’t heard the last of it. In 2017, the industry is expected to grow 13.5% mainly because the months of January to April will be the ‘recovery phase’ from the currency crisis. “My advice to advertisers would be to intensify campaigns during this period, and also have new product launches,†says Sam Balsara, Chairman of Madison World (who released the Pitch Madison Annual Report on Wednesday), mainly to make good the damage wreaked by demonetisation.
Still, 2017, says the report, promises to be an exciting year for advertising. At a projected growth of 13.5%, the size of the industry may be a likely Rs 56, 152 crore. And this optimism for robust ad expenditures, comes on the back of high government investment in infrastructure, lower corporate and personal taxes for small and medium companies, good government support for the disadvantaged, and the general expectation of yet another year of high GDP growth. While the projected growth in the first four months is likely to be only 8%, ad expenditure will pick up between the months of May and October, to stand at a projected 14% growth. And since adex touched a low in the months of November and December of 2016, growth in the corresponding period in 2017 might – by comparison –appear as high as 24%.
Television: Sector-wise, TV was still the biggest contributor to adex, registering a 9% and Rs 1,570-crore growth to reach the industry-size of Rs 18,831crore. This was largely propelled by FMCG (Rs 692 crore) and Telecom (Rs 475 crore), even though it lost an estimated Rs 850 crore to demonetisation. In 2017, TV will remain brands’ favourite medium and is projected to grow by another Rs 2,460 crore (13%) to close on Rs 21,300 crore. The forecasted reasons for this are organic growth coming from established FMCG advertisers as well as aggressive new players like Patanjali, and new channel launches by the existing networks.
Print: Print grew by 7% in 2016 (three percentage points lower than the forecast for 2016), to stand at Rs 18,151 crore. In 2017, it is expected to grow by 9.5% to touch Rs 19,869 crore. Most of this growth will be because of dailies, and regional publications and new editions introduced by current publishers. As well as advertising from ‘print loyalists’ like auto, education, durables and mobile phones
Digital: This was the (not-so-big) surprise. Digital was hardly affected by demonetisation, and grew by a whopping 43% to register an industry size of Rs 7,315 crore. Consumption of digital video content, which sparked huge spends on online video advertising in 2016, coupled with mobile displays, fuelled the growth of digital advertising, and will continue to do so. In 2017, digital is expected to grow to 25% to touch Rs 9,144 crore.
Radio: Grew by 13% to register an industry size of Rs 1,749 crore in 2016. BFSI, media and auto advertisers were the main contributors to this growth. In 2017, radio is predicted to grow by 15% to become Rs 2,008 crore, and the likely reasons are greater aggression by e-commerce and mobile-wallet companies; the emergence of new radio stations who have won bids in Phase III auctions, and organic growth among retail and local advertisers
OOH: The out-of-home market grew by 9% to register an industry size of Rs 2,910 crore, on the backs of retail, hospitals, education, real estate and restaurants, who are the biggest advertisers. As per the forecast, in 2017 OOH will grow by 11% to reach a size of Rs 3,234 crore, as e-commerce, M-wallet apps and telecom and mobile handsets will start advertising more aggressively using this medium.
Cinema: Big-screen advertising grew by 12.5% in 2016 to settle at Rs 523 crore – which makes it a marginal player of all advertising media. In 2017, it is expected to grow by 15% to reach Rs 601 crore.
By A Correspondent
Media services conglomerate GroupM released its biannual advertising expenditure futures report ‘This Year Next Year’ (TYNY) 2017 on Monday forecasting India’s advertising investment to reach an estimated Rs 61,204 crore in 2017. This represents a growth of 10% for the calendar year 2017 over the corresponding period in 2016.
As per GroupM, the adspends in 2016 were Rs 55,671 crore. Even though the year began on a very optimistic note, the overall AdEx took a downturn due to lower than expected adspend growth from sectors like FMCG, traditional retail, telecom and sporadic spending in categories like Ecommerce. In the January-October period itself the Adex was growing at a lower trajectory than forecasted. Furthermore, demonetisation in the last quarter had a negative impact of about 2% on the total Adex in 2016.
Speaking on the TYNY 2017 report, CVL Srinivas, CEO, GroupM South Asia said, “Despite a volatile 2016, we are estimating advertising expenditure growth at 10% in 2017. The first quarter will give a slow start to the year, with the market picking up from March-April, fueled by a stable recovery process post demonetization. Sectors that are contributing to this positive trajectory include Auto, Media and e-Wallets. In addition, Government and Political parties will increase spending with elections in several states this year.â€Â Explaining the media scenario, he added. “Digital is leading the Adex growth with a 30% growth, while TV continues to be the largest medium in the mix. Print continues to grow at a stable rate of 4.5% and is still the second largest medium in the Adex.â€
Looking at the advertising industry worldwide, GroupM estimates the global advertising expenditure (AdEx) to grow by 4.4% and Asia-Pacific to grow by 6.3%. With an estimated adex growth of 10%, India remains one of the fastest growing ad markets globally. While 80% of incremental ad spend growth in major markets comes from digital media, in India the numbers are more evenly split betwen traditional and digital media. Digital media accounts for about 40% of the incremental ad spend growth.
GroupM estimates the Digital Adex to grow by 30% in 2017 to Rs. 9,490 crores. The digital Adex is estimated to take a 15.5% share of the total Adex this year. There will be a high emphasis on viewability metrics and outcome based optimization. Ad spends will grow on OTT platforms, as internet speeds improve and catch up TV gains ground.
2017 is estimated to be a modest year for newspapers with 4.5% growth. The increase in ad spends expected from print heavy sectors like Auto, BFSI, e-wallets will contribute to this growth. Vernacular and regional newspapers will see a higher growth rate.
Television continues to be the largest medium contributing to the Adex with close to 45% share. This year, the growth rate for TV is 8%, with ‘Free To Air’ channels adding more inventory, and pure HD content gaining ground. The market will also see a consolidation of niche channels.
While Radio is expected to grow at a little over 10%, there is scope for the medium to pick up as the Phase 3 rollout is completed in 2017. Higher growth is expected as stations will see the supply impact of the full year.
Other media such as OOH will witness good traction from sectors addressing rural audience and premium niche audience. As per the trend in recent years, Cinema advertising will grow at a high double digit rate of 20%. Cinema consolidation has led to investments in infrastructure, this coupled with the growing acceptance of premium Indian and Hollywood content by advertisers augurs well for the medium.
By A Correspondent
The skies may be overcast for the Indian media, but here’s room for some cheer on this last Friday of August 2013. Television spends grew 16 percent and Print spends grew 13 percent – from January to June 2013, over the half-year of 2012.
The numbers are from TAM Media Research whose AdEx India division painstakingly computes data for ad volumes for the television and print sectors, amongst others.
Note: the analysis is based on ad duration in seconds for television and CCMs for print.
The tables are fairly explanatory, so we’ll restrict the prose.
