The question is self-explanatory, and Dr Bhaskar Das has been, as always, very candid. Here’s the June 15 edition of Das ka Dum. Read on…
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Q. GroupM’s 2023 Global Mid-Year Forecast predicts a 12% India adspend growth in 2023 and 13.36% next year. Do you see such a double-digit leap happening?
A. I have never understood how these estimates are arrived at. One can’t deny the practitioners’ empirical experience, but the reality is that companies plan their spends by quarter if not by months or weeks. Depending on the market volatility – downward or upward, the investments are dynamically conceived and continuous reallocation of marketing spends are calibrated given immediate priorities. Secondly, to arrive at an average number across formats of media delivery and centres can’t be more than a guesstimate. I can imagine digital spend would go up compared to legacy media but at an absolute level, the investment may not be low. Hence a generic percentage would be difficult to conceive. Finally, there is no third-party data about below-the-line spends. I presume that the estimate of BTL spends are taken into account.In view of the above three factors, I strongly believe that the actual spends would be more than the estimated one, though it would differ by different sectors. I have always maintained that I believe in the India growth story amidst stagflation/ recession in various economies and recent GDP estimates are encouraging enough to buttress my condition of rising graph of marketing spend (not necessarily only adspends).