MxMIndia

Category: Opinion – Archives

  • Viewership growth is highest in Mumbai, Bengaluru and Delhi compared to other megacities, Indrani Sen

    Indians more optimistic about recovery after Covid-19

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    BARC India and Nielsen Media jointly released the fifth edition of the report on ‘Crisis Consumption on TV and Smartphones’ last week. Their presentation before discussing the details of the TV and smartphone consumptions, gave a brief glimpse of a global scenario showing that Indian consumers are more optimistic about their country’s recovery after Covid-19. Similar trait has also been found among consumers in China, Indonesia and Nigeria who have shown higher levels of optimism than Indian consumers.

    Another chart showing a comparison of growth in TV viewing across the globe compared to the pre Covid-19 period and last week (Week 15) highlights the growth in India (40%), Australia (34%), Czech Republic (25%), France (20%) and United Kingdom (17%). The viewership growth in India was driven by both reach and ATS.

    After a huge dip in FCT in week 14, there was a rise in FCT during week 15 with many Indian advertisers using the COVID19 theme. Advertisement of essentials category saw a growth across TV genres, but Digital Video Advertising spends dropped across most categories. Reruns driven Hindi GEC in HSM were at an all-time high with 8.5 BN impressions with Mythological shows leading the way. HSM Urban maintained a all time high for 3rd week in row.

    TV viewership growth was led by News and Movies and the Movies growth came more from the PAY platforms. Consumption of both News and Movies genre surged after the lock down and now continue to maintain their higher shares. Viewership growth is highest in Mumbai, Bengaluru and Delhi compared to other megacities.

    Nonprime time is still driving the overall growth in TV consumption which raises doubts about the long term stability of this growth as after the lockdown is lifted, consumers would not have time for engaging with nonprime time shows. NCH A has seen the highest viewership growth across urban and rural markets with India rural showing high growth of consumption in non-primetime.

    Strong double-digit growth was seen across various segments of OTTs (movies, originals, etc.) while audio streaming apps show a decline possibly on account of commuting going down. During the lockdown period consumers might be opting for audio visual entertainment against just audio entertainment.

    The new normal of 3 hrs, 40 minutes+ a day on Smartphone continues – 10% increase over pre-Covid-19 times. News franchise on Smartphone continued to be nearly 50% of all smartphone audience, Views grew by 40%. Almost 4 in 10 searches in week 5 were around Coronavirus which is 4 times the searches made during week 1.

    One in five smartphone consumers in India were using the Aarogya Setu app in Week 5 – an 80% + increase v/s the launch week of the app. Consumer time spent on social networking has grown by 35%+ and 1 in 5 spends more than 1 hour per day. With large number of Indians working from home, a staggering 200% increase was seen in time spent on video conferencing and time spent on virtual drives almost doubled.

    There is already lot of speculation on the scope of extending WFH and flexible working hour concepts to our work culture as the lockdown is likely to be lifted gradually and definitely not uniformly across the country. It will take quite a few months for our school and college education system to return to normalcy. The growth spurts which we have witnessed in TV and smartphone consumption will not be reduced abruptly. The higher level of smartphone consumption is more likely to continue even after the cloud of Covid-19 starts moving away from India, whereas the higher level of TV consumption is bound to come down and settle at a level above the pre-Covid days.

     

     

  • Going forward, it will be beneficial to plan for TV and Digital by the same media agency, writes Indrani Sen evaluating the findings of IRS2019Q4

    The Internet Gets Mainstream, Finally

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    On May 8, 2020, the Media Research Users Council India (MRUC) released its findings of the last and final quarter of Indian Readership Survey 2019. Fieldwork of IRS 2019Q4 covered the period from December 2019 through March 2020 and the report has data based on a rolling average of four quarters of IRS 2019 data i.e. Q1+Q2+Q3 and Q4 2019.

     

    The highlights of the readership trends among English and vernacular titles have already been reported and analysed by different industry websites. The highlights of the survey- presented jointly by Nielsen and MRUC – has noted that: “Newspaper readership, is on a slow decline and is a trend seen across Hindi, English and Regional languages”. Vikram Sakhuja, IRS Technical Committee Chairman and Group CEO Madison Media & OOH, Madison World has noted in the press release: “(The) ability to read and understand English has increased and while overall print readership is holding, daily readership has started showing signs of decline.”

     

    According to the highlights of the report, a “rapidly evolving media landscape with multi-media adoption is seen across consumer strata resulting in large media markets, both traditional and digital with substantial increase in Internet penetration lifting it to mainstream along with TV and Print.” Moreover, the report has acknowledged “There was more number of internet users (Last 1 month) in rural now then urban.”

     

    Source: IRS2019Q4

     

    If we consider that the fieldwork for March 2020 ended before the National Lockdown due to Covid-19 was imposed on March 25, 2020, we can easily guess a further surge of internet users has happened across urban and rural India in the last seven weeks. Unfortunately, as the IRS fieldwork also is on hold now, we will have to wait for sometime before we get a clear indication of the media usage during the total and subsequently partial Lockdown enforced by Covid-19.

     

    IRS2019Q4 highlights have also given us a glimpse of how Indian consumers today are more equipped and more connected than before as shown in the following chart. There would not be significant change in the connectivity except during the lockdown both ‘shop from modern trade’ and ‘online shopping’ may go down and ‘access social media’ may go up substantially.

     

    Source: IRS2019Q4

     

    This calls for a total change in the approach of media planning where TV and Digital would have to be planned simultaneously now supplemented by Print, Radio and OOH plans. It would also be beneficial to plan for TV and Digital under the same roof by the same media agency than to distribute the business by traditional media and digital media to two different media agencies.

     

    Unfortunately, we still do not have single source data for TV and Digital media users which is essential for preparing cutting edge media plans. BARC’s plan for providing such data have been shelved indefinitely reportedly due to non-cooperation by Google and Facebook and instead of finding a solution to that problem, TRAI has now created other problems for the ongoing research on TV viewership with their new directives about TV viewership research. So, as internet continue to surge ahead as a mainstream media, media agencies will keep struggling with data and insights for doing justice to their media plans.

     

     

  • The shift of OTT viewing from small screen to large screen would be a trend to watch out for, writes Indrani Sen

    Will OTT consumption trends last beyond the Lockdown?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Starting March 25, Covid-19 imposed four phases of a lockdown over 68 days in India. We have seen many changes in our Media & Entertainment industry during this period. The rise of consumption of video streaming or OTT platforms is a major one among the various changes. As we enter the Phase 5 of lockdown with gradual unlocking of restrictions, the questions which are foremost among the various sectors of the M&E industry ‘will the gain made during the Lockdown last/ can the loss made during the Lockdown be reversed?’

     

    How long does it actually take to form a new habit? Maxwell Maltz, a plastic surgeon published his thoughts on behaviour changes in an audio book called Psycho-Cybernetics which was not only a blockbuster hit, but also influenced thinkers like Zig Ziglar, Brian Tracy, Tony Robbins etc. Maltz’s submission “it takes minimum 21 days to form a new habit” was shortened to “it takes 21 days to form a new habit” and the ‘21 days’ myth was born.

     

    There have been other scientific studies on the subject and a study by Phillippa Lally published in European Journal of Social Psychology found that on average, it takes minimum 66 days before a new behaviour becomes a habitual one. Though we have had 68 days’ of lockdown, the consumption of OTT platforms did not increase at one stroke at the beginning of Lockdown, but has increased gradually over this period. Still, it would be fair to assume that a large percentage of the viewers contributing to increased OTT consumption is on the verge of forming a new habit which is likely to last as we slowly emerge from the lockdown.

     

    From only nine in 2012, today the number of OTT platforms in India now stands at 35. The technique of personalisation of content for individual viewers has been helping them to increase their subscriber base which in turn has started attracting distribution of recent movies and other interesting contents. According to TAM AdEx data, the OTT platforms have been advertising aggressively during the Lockdown period on national and regional TV channels across different genres. Most of the platforms have been rewarded with growth of paid viewers and rise in viewing time.

     

    Apart from the above increases, what other trends we can expect to emerge in OTT viewing in India? As the consumption of OTT platforms increase both vertically and horizontally, the bandwidth required for delivery would continue to remain as an issue. The Cellular Operators’ Association of India has already asked OTT platforms to limit the quality and quantity of video to reduce the strain on the cellular network infrastructure.

     

    The shift of OTT viewing from small screen to large screen would be a trend to watch out for. As we would be living under the cloud of COVID 19 till an effective vaccine is discovered and is available globally at an affordable price, we will be accepting ‘new normal’ in various wakes of life including spending more time at home with family. The urge to view content together as well as the limitations of the broadband internet may lead to a shift of OTT viewing from the small screen of the mobile to the large screen of TV, a fact which was highlighted in the recent KPMG study.

     

    Another trend to watch out for would be a shift in prime time viewing of OTT platforms due to WFH and early return from work to home due to night curfew.  A recent article in Financial Times stated: “According to a recent survey by mobile marketing platform InMobi, 46% viewers are watching more content online. Another consumer survey conducted by Hammerkopf has found that OTT consumption primetime has moved to 7 pm onwards, as opposed to 10 pm-12 am before.” (https://www.financialexpress.com/brandwagon/how-is-coronavirus-impacting-the-streaming-platforms-with-an-increasing-appetite-of-viewers/1919916/).

     

    Various websites have recently carried articles on the ad spend on OTT platforms based on the TAM AdEx report of January to April 2020 showing that ad insertions doubled from 16000 in March to 33000  in April on this medium. An article on www.warc.com made an excellent analysis of the same ( https://www.warc.com/newsandopinion/news/adspend-on-ott-platforms-double-as-advertiser-mix-shifts-in-india/43633) pointing out that while some  categories/advertisers/ brands withdrew their advertising from OTT platforms, many new categories/ advertisers/ brands started advertising in their place. The churning of traditional to new advertisers would be the third trend that we can expect to see in near future on OTT platforms.

     

    Could there be a negative impact on the Lockdown on OTT business? If there is a further spike in Coronavirus cases after unlocking and the Government is forced to impose Lockdown again, then the economy may take a grievous down turn due to prolonged Lockdown resulting in a severe cash crunch and loss of employment. In such a situation, there may be de-growth in subscription of the video streaming platforms along with de-growth across M&E industry.

     

    The OTT platforms have restructured the content creation and distribution in the entertainment industry and it appears that the Lockdown would be acting as catalyst to accelerate the growth of this sector and the current consumption trends would last beyond the Lockdown period.

     

     

  • Coming up: a win-win proposition for viewers as well as channel owners in the post Covid-19 scenario, writes Indrani Sen

    The Silent Coup by Prasar Bharati

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    In February 2019, post TRAI’s NTO, big broadcasters had pulled out their Hindi mass entertainment channels from DD Free Dish which subsequently led to loss of viewership, weekly GRPs and ad revenue for those channels. The four big broadcasters, who submitted fresh bid invitation for vacant MPEG-2 slots by Prasar Bharati and won the e-auction held on June 2, 2020, must be sighing in relief now after getting five channels back on DD Free Dish. With effect from June 10, 2020, DD Dish TV subscribers would be able to view Star Utsav, Sony Pal, Zee Anmol, Colors Rishtey and Zee Anmol Cinema. It is definitely a win-win proposition for viewers as well as the channel owners in the post Covid-19 scenario.

     

    Considering that these channels were earlier earning on an average 100 times more that the average carriage fee of Rs 6 to 8 crore paid per annum to DD Free Dish and most of them lost 50% + of their ad revenue after pulling out from DD Free Dish, it is no wonder that they have all boarded back the DD Free Dish Band wagon at the first available opportunity. The five channels are in dire need of restoring their ad revenues in the post-Lockdown stage and cannot do without the viewership numbers which DD’s free-to-air platform promises to add. It is a silent coup by Prasar Bharati for making DD Free Dish an essential part for the survival and growth of these private channels.

     

    In most of the statistical analyses of subscribers of DTH providers, DD Free Dish is not included which makes the advertising and media Industry forget about its existence. While Doordarshan does not have the built in mechanism to measure the growth of DD Free Dish connections, estimates available from government sources as well as private consultancy firms unanimously agree that DD Free Dish is the leading DTH service provider in India.

     

    On June 23, 2019 at a programme to launch distribution of DD Free Dish TV set top boxes in Kashmir, Union Minister for Information and Broadcasting Prakash Javadekar claimed that (https://www.indiantelevision.com/dth/dth-operator/dd-free-dish-has-35-crore-subscribers-prakash-javadekar-190623) Doordarshan was the biggest DTH service provider in India with 3.5 crore (35 million) subscribers of DD Free Dish.  He further claimed that there are total 5.5 crore (55 million) DTH connections in India. The 2019 FICCI-EY report estimated 30 million subscribers for DD Free Dish and predicted that it would cross the 50 million mark in near future.

     

    It is evident from the activity related to DD Free Dish on various private e-commerce sites that their business is doing well. From the sale of DD Free Dish set-top boxes on Amazon (https://www.amazon.in/STC-DD-free-Dish-Set-Top/dp/B07FNKDGGC ) to installation of DD Free antenna on Indiamart (https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/d-d-free-dish-antenna-installation-5874029873.html) to sale of remote  on Flipkart (https://www.flipkart.com/mase-remote-dd-free-dish-controller/p/itmfdcbspgtjqmgg) , e-commerce sites are doing brisk business due to the popularity of the DD Free Dish.

     

    DD Free Dish is available in Ku-Band on GSAT-15 (at 93.5°E). It has been upgraded from time to time. The number of channels available increased from 80 to 104 in 2019, of which 26 channels are reserved for Doordarshan. Currently 104 SDTV channels along with 40 radio channels of AIR are available to the subscribers. DD Free Dish has been the greatest contribution which Prasar Bharati has made to broadcasting in India since the satellite TV’s invasion from the sky and privatisation of TV channels. If the set top box for DD Free Dish can be made technically enabled to receive WiFi signals then a new vista of media consumption will open to the vast audiences belonging to  “Bharat”.

     

     

  • Elsewhere in the world too, there has been a decline of average time spent with digital audio in 2020, writes Indrani Sen

    Has the Lockdown diverted audio streaming to video?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    During this decade, the listening habits of consumers have been steadily moving to online platforms. The demand for vernacular content consumption helped popular music streaming giants to establish their apps in India and benefitted the homegrown apps. At present, the main players in the Indian market are Times Internet-owned Gaana, JioSaavn, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Prime Music, Spotify, Google Play Music and Airtel Wynk.

     

    The consumption of digital audio has been growing steadily from music streaming to podcasts. One would have thought that the coronavirus pandemic would further increase digital audio streaming, but it reality it has turned out to be different.

     

    In one of the earlier reports released jointly by BARC and Nielsen, it was reported that both users per week and time spent by users per week for audio streaming have been going down across metros and non-metros. While the research agency attributed the decline to travelling coming to a halt, informal research showed that people staying at home preferred to see music videos than listen to audio tracks of music.

     

    Source: Deep Dive into content and advertising consumption during COVID 19, 23rd April, 2020

     

    This trend has been seen across the world with www.emarketers.com  reporting on audio streaming getting diverted to video streaming in UK and US during Coronavirus lockdown resulting in decline of average time spent with digital audio in 2020.

     

    In UK, where steady gains were made till recently in digital audio consumption, www.emarketer.com has predicted a zero growth among the adult population in 2020. The picture in the US is broadly similar, though with time spent among adults declining only by a single percentage point. (https://www.emarketer.com/content/in-the-us-and-uk-audio-streaming-has-diverted-to-video-during-coronavirus-lockdown). April 2020 data from Nielsen Music as reported in the article, found that compared to an eight-week pre-Coronavirus baseline, audio music streaming volumes in the US were down by 6.2% in the week ending March 19 and by 9.2% in the week ending March 26. Music video streaming on the other hand increased by 9.3% and by 13.4%, respectively during the same two weeks. It is likely that a similar analysis in India will show similar trends during Covid-19.

     

    Source: Coffee-With-Comscore-India-JUN2020

     

    The Comscore Report of June 2020 estimated  the number of Unique Visitors (UVS) for top entertainment sites and apps in India. Among the music steaming apps, Jio Saavan had highest number of Unique Visitors followed  by Gaana Music. Hotstar has almost double the number of UVS of  Jio Saavan. An informal check with the audio streaming companies further revealed that both their Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) have been going down staedily. They are now shifting their focus to increasing their subscription revenue, which currently has a miniscule share of their revenue.

     

    The question which is currently haunting the audio streaming industry is if this shift to video streaming from audio steaming is a temporary phenomenon which will disappear with the pandemic or is it going to be a lasting effect which will adversely affect their future business plans? As education, trade and commerce grapple with the manifestation of the ‘new normal’ status, it can be safely guessed that the current trend is not a short-term affair. Unlocking of the economy will probably slow down the rate of diversion from audio streaming to video streaming, but it would not bounce back to the pre-Covid-19 scenario.

     

  • Indian advertisers will follow global trends and podcast will emerge as an additional advertising option in the next

    Podcast: The Crawling Baby is Walking Now!

     

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Our students at Symbiosis Institute of Media & Communication have been surprising us with their online co-curricular activities ever since we opened our campus virtually. Recently, we noticed a keen interest among them to use and explore podcasts.

     

    The Public Relations students of PR Club have started an initiative of regular podcast using Spotify Live on “PR in Post Covid World” from July 2020 and are inviting various senior people from PR industry for featuring in the podcasts. Media Management students of MM Club organised a panel discussion on “Growing podcast culture in the audio streaming industry” and invited three bright young professionals, Ishani Dasgupta of Jio Saavan, Kavita Rajwade of IVM Podcast and Daniel Fenandes, a stand-up comedian and SIMC alumnus to share their perspectives with the students.

     

    Encouraged by the students’ interest, I was trying to update myself on podcast in India during last week when www.emarketers.com came up with an interesting article on podcast adspending in the US on August 4, 2020. “Podcast listenership in the US has been soaring in recent years and advertising dollars are following…… By the end of 2020, podcast ad spending in the US will reach $782.0 million, up 10.4% from last year, giving it a 21.0% share of the US digital radio ad market. And in 2021, spending will jump nearly 45% to $1.13 billion.” (https://www.emarketer.com/content/us-podcast-ad-spending-surpass-1-billion-next-year?ecid=NL1009).

     

    The term “podcast” was first used in February 2004 by combining “iPod” and “broadcast” by Ben Hammersley, a Guardian columnist and BBC journalist. The term was coined before Apple introduced its formal support for podcasting to the iPod, or launched its iTunes software. Apple rolled out iOS 8, a standalone ‘Podcast’ app in 2014, which accelerated the process of growth in podcasting.

     

    Today, many podcasts can be downloaded free; some are underwritten or sponsored by organisations with the inclusion of advertisements. Advertising, subscription, licensing content and content generation as a service are the revenue generation models in podcasting.  Lately, many people have made business ventures in the area of podcasting supported by combination of a paid subscription model and advertising.

     

    Podcasting in India began around 2005 with Indicast launched by Abhishek Kumar and Aditya Mhatre and caught up very fast with younger people as a verbal storytelling platform. Within a year, the number of podcasters rose to nearly 3000 in India and since then has been growing at a steady pace. Though China and the USA are globally most advanced podcast markets, it is estimated that India is on its way to become one of the top five podcast markets. Google indicates similar trends by observing that India is one of the top five countries using its podcast app.

     

    In India, there is a definite demand for local, Indianised content and podcasters are looking at audio-streaming as the new battleground. Industry experts agree that Indian podcasting may see exponential growth in both audiences and content during the next few years, making it an independent, economically viable standalone media.

     

    “As of December 2019, 40 million Indian internet users have listened to podcasts in India….this market is just one small fraction of the bigger OTT video and music streaming industry.” claimed an article mapping the Indian podcast market released on April 14, 2020 (https://inc42.com/features/mapping-the-market-indias-podcast-landscape/). Another article published in The Hindu Businessline on May 22, 2020 wrote about five home grown apps for podcasting in India.  (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/five-homegrown-podcast-apps-for-indian-listeners/article31650585.ece).

     

    The article in The Hindu Businessline observed: “…compared to western markets, India has all the right growth variables. The emergence of digital marketing to grab more users and revenue, entry of celebrities in podcast creation (Neha Dhupia, Kunal Kapoor, Kalki Koechlin and others); entry of foreign players (Spotify, Audible, Apple Podcasts, Audioboom and others); adoption of podcasts as a content stream by media companies (Hindustan Times, BBC, NPR etc.) as well as local music streaming platforms such as JioSaavn, Gaana have all played a crucial role in the growth of podcasts in the Indian market.”

     

    As of today, it is estimated that we have 40+ players, including local and international apps as well as aggregators in our podcast market. In the post Covid era of online teaching, podcast is being considered as an alternative platform for teaching. We can safely assume that Indian advertisers will follow the trends in US and other markets and podcast will emerge as an additional advertising option in the next decade.

     

     

  • Will see a negative AdEx growth this year as we had seen in 2009, wonders Indrani Sen

    The Ripple Effect of Coronavirus

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    A lot has happened in the last one week, when we speculated about how Covid-19 might affect the AdEx in 2020. As India fights against all odds to stop the accelerated outbreak of the virus through community transmission with the entire country is facing partial to total lockdown, there is no doubt that our economy will be badly affected like many other developed and developing countries. So, along with the rest of the world, India will be getting into a severe recession for the rest of the year. The point we need to speculate, will there just be a dip in the growth rate of AdEx or will we see a negative growth as we saw in 2009?

     

    The international financial crisis of 2008 which originated in the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US and led to a severe recession in many countries over 2008 and 2009 also affected the Indian economy and we saw first a dip in the AdEx in 2008 and then a negative growth in 2009. However, AdEx recovered quickly from that recession and we saw a healthy growth in 2010.

     

    Source: Pitch Madison Media Advertising Outlook 2015

     

    The ripple effect of Coronavirus is going to create an employment crisis across the globe and India will not be an exception. We were already at a high unemployment situation before this crisis hit us. With industries experiencing forced shutdowns, many are asking their employees on go on leave without pay or with truncated pay.  Employees who work on the basis of contracts, as per terms and conditions of the contracts are often not paid unless they report to work and in the present situation are likely to lose financially. Financial loss will be experienced by the lower end of self-employed workers (Ola/ Uber drivers, auto drivers, rickshaw pullers, plumbers, electricians, etc.) as well as the daily wage earners. MSME sector which is known as the engine of growth and employment in India will also take a big hit. A combined effect of these muted wage or loss of wage will lead to decrease in consumer demand. In addition, there will be a disruption in the supply chain also due to temporary closure of production, lack of transport for distributing the goods, etc.  These changes in demand and supply will have adverse effect on the marketing and advertising budget forcing the advertisers to curtail their expenditure.

     

    Circulation of our print media so far has not been affected like global print media many of who have stopped the printing of hard copies, thanks to the last mile delivery by newspapers delivery persons and hawkers as against the sale through news-stands in developed countries. Indian newspapers managed to develop a schedule of work from home for their reporters and a system of rotation for other essential staff in order to reduce the number of employees present on their premises.

     

    The ‘Janata Curfew’ on March 22 followed by lockdown of some cities/ districts from March 23, may force newspapers also to take a call regarding their production as the distributors/ hawkers and the delivery boys will also get hit by the lack of local transport. Probably, newspapers from second-tier cities under lockdown will be less affected than the newspapers from metros facing a similar situation. So, some Indian newspapers may experience temporary closure and fluctuations in their circulation and readership and subsequently lose ad revenue as supplies of goods dwindle due to logistical issues related to production, transportation, etc. and consumer demand drops.

    There is going to be an increase in TV viewership, particularly the viewership of news and entertainment channels as people try to stay abreast with Covid-19 related news and entertain themselves with serials and movies during their stay at home. With all production of Film and TV industry closed till March 31, there is a chance that the serials will run out of their banked episodes which have been already shot and canned. Lack of new episodes will affect the viewership of serials adversely. Even if the viewership of GEC and Movie channels increase, ad revenue may go down due to demand and supply related issues as mentioned above in relation to print.

     

    Sports Channels are going to lose both viewership and advertising revenue with cancellation of sporting events and their telecast. As TV still accounts for the major share of our ADEX, the extent of loss of TV revenue will determine the fate of AdEx in 2020.

    Contributions of radio, cinema and outdoor to the overall AxEx are much less than Print and TV. However, ad revenue of FM radio stations will be affected as listening to car radio goes down with people being forced to stay at home. In the US, Nielsen is working on special analysis as well as a quick survey to give the advertisers some idea about how Covid-19 has affected radio listenership. Our Radio Audience Measurement is already affected by lack of financial support from the sector and it may not be possible for them to react in a similar way (http://www.insideradio.com/free/nielsen-to-release-study-on-covid–impact-on-radio/article_6c1e0246-6a81-11ea-8ab4-17d484c1eb56.html).

     

    Many of radio advertising deals are linked with on ground activities and consumer activations and radio ad revenue will see a decline due to curb on all such activities. With closure of malls and cinema halls, cinema will lose the ticket sales money as well as advertising revenue. Traffic on the roads, stations, airports will dwindle due to lock down of cities, social distancing and work from home which will have a negative impact on OOH advertising.

     

    Usage of digital as well as social media will increase during this troubled days as people are trying to get constant update on the pandemic, keep in touch with their friends and relatives while staying at home and opt for some entertainment of their choice on OTT platforms. There is a good chance that advertisers will try to utilise this opportunity by stepping up their budget on digital and social media till the ripple effect of Covid-19 force them to stop advertising.

     

    So far, we have seen only an estimate for loss by events and experiential industry which has been estimated as Rs 3000 crores with ten million jobs at risk which was published on March 17, 2020. (http://everythingexperiential.businessworld.in/article/Loss-to-events-experiential-industry-in-India-estimated-at-Rs-3000-Cr-due-to-COVID-19-ten-million-jobs-at-risk/16-03-2020-186335/). Other media sectors have not yet made any forecast of their probable losses.

     

    The ripple effect of Coronavirus will be directly proportional to the number of days that India takes to control the spread of the virus. In some European countries currently experiencing community transmission, economic analysts are already forecasting that at least 12 to 16 weeks period will be required to curb the virus. If India gets into a similar situation, it may take us longer to curb the virus given the expanse of our country and irresponsible behaviour of our citizens. In that case AdEx will end up with a negative growth like we experienced in 2009.

     

     

  • Indrani Sen scans the mid-year review of the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020

    Dramatic changes in Indian Ad Industry

     

     

    Editor’s Note: The Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 is a significant industry milestone held every year. Although MxMIndia belongs to the same space as the Exchange4media group-owned Pitch magazine, we believe the report is an industry property and are glad that the two entities – Pitch and Madison – are doing this for many years. Our report very clearly acknowledges the association of both Pitch and Madison, and have hence not called it the Madison Advertising Report, but the Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020, as it should be.

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    The Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 presented its mid-year review yesterday and revealed the extent of damage done by the pandemic to Indian ad industry.

     

    A comparison with 2019 shows that the overall AdEx lost INR 14,000 crore and declined by 39% in H1, the first half of 2020 due to the effects of Covid-19. A break up of the first half by two quarters showed that Q1 had an 8% decline in the overall AdEx in the pre-Lockdown period due to the slowing down of Indian economy. In Q2, during the complete lockdown in April and May, the overall AdEx dropped into almost a bottomless pit. The fall was partially arrested with the unlocking starting in phases from June 1, but overall AdEx still declined by 65% in Q2.

     

    Citing the trends of recovery of TV and Digital advertising in June and July, PMAR has predicted 60% -72% recovery of overall AdEx in H2, the second half of 2020 boosted by the festive season, revival of IPL, big ticket TV shows like KBC and Big Boss. The estimated recovery of AdEx in H2, is expected to arrest de-growth of overall AdEx in 2020 and contain it within a range of -14% to -18% as shown in the chart below.

     

    Source: Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midterm Review

     

    While TV and Digital are set on getting back to normalcy, Print is lagging far behind and Radio, Cinema and OOH are yet to show signs of regaining normalcy. The report has refrained from calculating a specific growth number in the forecast for 2020, instead has indicated a range for the AdEx value of each sector as well as the overall Ad Industry as reflected in the above chart. PMAR needs to be congratulated on their commendable efforts of mapping the effects of COVID 19 on Indian Ad Industry in the current situation.

     

    As per the usual format of reporting, PMAR has presented a detailed picture of TV, Digital, Print, Radio, OOH and Cinema and an analysis of advertisers active during the first two quarters of 2020 across different media. Among traditional media TV suffered the least damage with TV AdEx dropping by -43% in H1 ‘20 and retained 38% share of the advertising pie. Print AdEx dropped by 51% in H1’20 and it had to concede the number two position to Digital in terms of share in the advertising pie which dropped to 25%.  Adex dropped respectively by 52% in Radio, 55% in OOH and 52% in cinema in H1 ’20.  Digital had only a minor contraction of just 7% in H1 ’20 and its share in the advertising pie went up to 30%.

     

    As far advertisers are concerned, more than half disappeared from Print and Radio during the first half of 2020. TV also lost a quarter of its regular advertisers. 13 new advertisers entered the list of Top 50 advertisers which accounted for 31% of the overall AdEx. HLL topped the list with INR 1300 to 1500 crores advertising in H1 ’20. A wide gap was noticed among HLL and Procter & Gamble who ranked second with an ad spend of INR 250 to 350 crores.

     

    The Indian ad industry has never experienced such a decline. If we look at the last two decades, we find the industry growing in leaps and bounds during the first 8 years of this century with year on year double digit growth. In earlier PMAR reports we saw the growth rate of overall AdEx dropping to -8.9% in 2009 from 18.9% in 2008 as the international financial crisis triggered off by the sub-prime mortgage problem in the US led to recession in many countries and cast a shadow also on our economy. However, the overall industry recovered quickly with a whopping 27.9% growth in 2010. During the current decade there has been ups and downs in the performance of the overall AdEx but we never saw actual de-growth of our Ad Industry. According to PMAR 2020 Midyear Review, COVID 19 may set the industry back by 2 to 3 years. It is unlikely that the industry will recover as quickly as it did in 2010. A lot depends on how the government can control further spread of the pandemic and how soon vaccine for coronavirus can be available for Indian masses.

     

  • After the 7-yr delay, TRAI could’ve waited for normalcy to return before enforcing the cap, writes Indrani Sen

    12 minute ad cap may turn to 12 death nails for FTA channels

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    The right thing at a wrong time is a wrong thing.

    Taking liberty with the words of Charles Dickens, one can say this is not the best of times; this is probably the worst of times in the twenty-first century when we are fighting with the deadly Coronavirus, the total number of COVID 19 positive cases and death caused by the pandemic are going up every day in India, the Indian economy is in recession and Media & Advertising Industry has just seen a huge drop of 65% in advertising revenue in Q2 of 2020 (Source: Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midyear Review). What a time for TRAI to press for the 12% ad cap on Television by pushing for a hearing of the case at the Delhi High Court!

     

    Dust has not yet settled on NTO 2.0. Indian TV Industry and the Regulating body have been discussing the possible implications of implementation of NTO2.0 over the last few months. It has come as a rude shock to the TV industry that TRAI has pushed the Delhi High Court for an early hearing of the case on 12 min cap per hour on television advertising. The final hearing has now been fixed on 28th September, 2020. If Indian television industry is forced to accept the 12% ad cap during this difficult time, then many TV channels, particularly the free to air channels and news channels may be forced to close their business.

     

    Let us take a quick look at the effect of the pandemic on TV advertising. The Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midyear Review released last week has shown that against a 65% loss of total advertising in Q2 2020, loss of TV advertising was 61%. The chart below shows the TV advertising market in April, May, June TV advertising revenue over last 3 years. Across all categories, advertisers have spent less on TV during the first half of the year with 25% of the regular advertisers not spending on TV advertising. Even after the boosting of as spend in the second half of the year due to the festive season, IPL, big ticket properties on TV like Big Boss, KFC, the TV industry is expected to end the year 2020 with 12% to 17% de-growth.

     

    Source: Pitch Madison Advertising Report 2020 Midyear Review

     

    Based on consumer complaints in 2012, the TRAI first announced the regulation on 12% Ad cap in 2013. I wrote an article on 12th October, 2015 here comparing the systems of regulations on TV advertising across various countries (https://www.mxmindia.com/2015/10/mediasense-by-indrani-sen-to-cap-it-all/) and requesting TRAI to look beyond the regulatory system of UK to other countries across the world. Since 2015, some of the countries cited as example in my article, have changed their own regulatory frame works and have made it more user friendly for the TV channels. For example in Europe instead of 20% of advertising in every hour, it has been relaxed to overall 20% advertising between 7.00 to 23.00 hours with broadcasters’ own promotions, sponsors’ announcements and product placements not counting under the 20% stipulated time.

     

    As per the last FICCI EY report we had 918 TV channels in 2019 of which 65% were free to air channels.  Out of the registered TV channels in India 386 (42%) are news channels of which many are in the FTA category. These channels depend solely on advertising revenue and will be really badly hit if the 12% ad cap per hour is imposed at this unprecedented time. The eco system of Doordarshan’s Free Dish will also be affected in the process and the viewers will end up getting a raw deal in terms of the channels available on the Free Dish.

     

    It is obvious that it is not possible to attract advertising for the repeat shows after 12 midnight till 6am in the morning when the country goes to sleep. Many TV channels have already petitioned for changing the ad cap per hour to an overall ad cap per day. By relaxing the 12 min per hour cap to 12 minute overall cap during 24 hours, TRAI can allow the TV channels the flexibility to distribute the total commercial time of 288 minute per day in a more profitable manner. Alternatively, TRAI’s purpose of providing better content to the consumers would be self defeating as consumers will get less variety of content with many FTA channels going off the air or will have to pay additional cost for viewing better content with more established GEC channels introducing more ‘pay & view’ content.

     

    Finally, there is a time for taking all actions. If a right action is taken at a wrong time, then it can become a wrong action. After procrastination of 7 years, TRAI can surely wait for normalcy to return to our economy at large and the media and advertising industry in particular before enforcing the proposed ad cap on TV advertising.

     

     

  • There has been much speculation on how much revenue BCCI, the eight franchisees and Star India will be able to earn this year given it will be held away from home turf

    IPL 13: Who will Gain & Who will Lose?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Ever since BCCI announced that IPl 13 will be held this year in the UAE from September 19 to November 10, there has been a lot of speculation in the media about how much revenue BCCI, the eight franchisees and Star India would be able to earn through this high value cricket tournament held away from home turf.

     

    It is still a matter of speculation, but one aspect is clear that BCCI’s scheduling of IPL 13 matches scheduled during evening primetime will deprive many GEC channels from the revenue which they have been expecting to get from the festive seeson advertising. As per various industry estimates, 40 to 45% of total annual advertising revenue is generated during the festive season spreading from September to December with bulk of it spent by Diwali every year.

     

    Revival of mega programmes like KBC, Big Boss, Indian Idol and Dance India Dance is expected to give IPL some competition and to help the big players Sony, Colors and Zee to get a good share of the TV advertising budget of festive season, but many other channels will not be that lucky. BCCI has also planned for maximising its revenues during the festive season as after October 25, 2020 there will be no afternoon match and all matches will be scheduled at 7.30 pm IST. With the final scheduled on November 10, only a small window of  four days before Diwali is left for other channels to encash on their share of festive spends. Had BCCI scheduled the IPL 13 a month later from October 2020, then probably the picture could have been different.

     

    Let us now look at the three main interested parties who have serious revenue tagets to be realised from IPL 13. The first is BCCI who earns the lion’s share of its annual budget every year from IPL. Apart from Rs 3270 crore which Star pays to BCCI every year for the TV and digital media rights, they were supposed to get Rs 440 crore from Vivo for title sponsorship, Rs 250 to Rs 300 crore for other associate sponsorships and another Rs 17 to Rs 20 crore from other sponsorships. After Vivo pulled out from the title sponsorship, BCCI got Dream 11 as a title sponsor for Rs 220 crores, at 50% discounted price of the earlier deal. BCCI shares 50% of the title sponsorship money with the eight franchisees by distributing the same among them and the revenue of the fanchisees has also been reduced as a result of this discounted deal. As per the experts’ views, BCCI’s revenue target from associate sponsorsips etc. are also expected to see a downward revision. BCCI will have to give a hefty fees to Emirates Cricket Board for holding the matches at UAE and their other logistical cost will also go up. A combination of all these factors will lead to a lower realisation of BCCI’s earlier revenue target from IPL 13.

     

    As far as the eight franchisees are concerned, each of them will lose out revenues from three sources. The first will be the loss from their share of title sponsorship which BCCI has sold at 50% lower value than expected earlier. The second will be the loss from gate revenue which used to be between Rs 22 to Rs. 28 crore per team from cricket grounds. The third will be from expected lower revenue of title sponsorship of each team under the current situation. Each team now anticipates to earn at least 15% to 20% less on the estimated the team title sponrship value of Rs. 50 to Rs. 75 crore (except Mumbai Indians which was looking at Rs 100 crore-plus) from title sponsorship before the pandemic struck.

     

    In addition, all of the franchisees will have to spend extra for the travel and accomodation cost of the players as well as creating arrangements for the bio-bubble and net practice at UAE. The combined effect of all the above is expected to result in a loss of Rs 80 to Rs 90 crore per franchisee. BCCI has already rejected the appeal for concessions in IPL 13 due to the pandemic made by the franchisees. (https://www.insidesport.co/ipl-2020-bccis-stern-no-to-ipl-franchises-demand-for-compensation/)

     

    The last but not the least of the three interested paries is Star India, the broadcaster holding the media rights of IPL for TV and Digital media. In Star India’s original plan for revenues to be earned over the contract period with BCCI, 2020 was supposed to be a crucial year when they had expected to replace earlier losses with profit. However, the pandemic changed their plans. An article published on July 4, 2020 by www.sportstar.thehndu.co referred to a statement made by Uday Shankar, the Star & Disney India Chairman to ET Now: “If there is one tournament where advertisers will put money, that is IPL but only if they have to put monies. The market has gone through massive shock. Whether it would recover enough to put thousand of crores worth of advertising in next 6-8 weeks is the real issue and we doubt that… I am not sure the market is ready to support the IPL with the same fervour…” (https://sportstar.thehindu.com/cricket/ipl-2020-postponed-future-star-india-uday-shankar-advertisers/article31986991.ece). He has obviously changed his mind since then as in a recent article in  https://www.timesnownews.com/sports/cricket/, he has been quoted as saying: “Our viewership of IPL on TV, as well as OTT platform, has grown year-on-year, and that will continue even this year…Also, for any company, which is looking at advertising, IPL provides the best and most-effective platform.”

     

    As per industry sources, Star is targeting at a revenue of Rs 3000 crore plus from IPL 13. There is difference in estimates on how much they earned from IPL 12. According to ET Prime, the revenue was Rs 2,100 crore in 2019, but some other sources peg the earnings around Rs 2500 crore.

     

    Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/prime/media-and-communications/ipl-2020-star-india-will-have-to-rework-its-strategy-to-hit-the-inr3000-crore-revenue-target/primearticleshow/77321586.cms?from=mdr?fromsrc=etprime

     

    Star India has already declared that there will be no reduction on the advertising tarif declared earlier which had a built in 20% hike over IPL 12. As per industry sources going rate for 10 second advertising is 12.5lakhs. Based on estimate of ET Prime, with a revenue target of Rs 3000 crores in IPL 13 Star is aiming for a growth of 43% over IPL 12, which semms to be highly ambitious. Based on the estimate that revenue from IPL 13 was around Rs 2500 crores, a 20% to 22% growth over last year will enable Star to achieve the revenue target of Rs. 3000 crores, which seems to be more realistic. There is already a prediction that viewership of IPL 13 will increase by 25% from IPL 12 which will help Star in marketing IPL.

     

    To sum up, the broadcaster seem to be on a good wicket as riding on the promise of 25% higher reach, they have a good chance of realising the target revenue for IPL 13. On the other hand, BCCI and the 8 franchisees will have to be contented with reducing their losses from IPL 13 held in UAE than a total loss of cancelling IPL 13 in 2020. The smaller TV channels across genres may be complete losers as many marketers suffering from the loss in sales and revenue over the first two quarters of 2020 and the slow rate of recovery in the third quarter, may not be able to extend their advertising budgets  for festive seasons beyond investing in IPL 13.

     

     

  • Younger adults are hooked on to streaming services, notes a DAN report, writes Indrani Sen

    How India’s Gen Z is addicted to Streaming

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    Covid-19 has transformed the media consumption trends in India. Globally, streaming platforms gained in a big way since the pandemic struck and India is no exception. The report published by Dentsu Agies Network – “Now Streaming: The Indian Youth OTT Story” – is a study conducted among urban India’s Gen Z & Millennial reconfirms this trend. These trends could be reflecting behavioural changes of the two younger generations which are likely to last even after the cloud of pandemic shifts from the Indian sky. The highlights of the findings from the report are shown below:

    Source: https://dentsumarketing.cloud/dmcinsights.php

     

    As many as 74% of the respondents came from the Top 8 metros with 26% coming from rest of urban India. 47% of the respondents were male and 52.2% were female. 78.5% came from Gen Z (5 to 25 years) and 21.5% came from Millennials (25 to 39 years).  The report therefore cannot be taken as uniform trends across urban youths across India but trends which are visible among youths residing in the top 8 metros and mostly below 25 years of age. They are, however, the future targets of marketing and advertising in India.

     

    Average daily time spent in hours
    Gen Z Millennials
    On line Gaming 1.97 1.11
    Binge Watching 4.45 3.66

     

     

    Among the various OTT platforms, Amazon Prime and Netflix lead the pack, followed by Hotstar. The other OTT platforms are yet to build up significant presence among the Indian youths. Gen Z spends more time than Millennials both on gaming and binge watching on OTT platforms.

     

     

    The choice of genres by the two sections of youth explains the popularity of the top three platforms which offer more content as per their preference. Zee 5, Voot, Jio, Sony Liv, etc have less content to offer in the Comedy, Action, Thriller and Science Fiction genres. Amazon Prime, Netflix and Hotstar have also invested more in production of original content. However, the report has also shown that both in North and South India across different demographics the primary usage of OTT platforms were for viewing TV shows and movies.

     

    During the lockdown north Indian youths invested on an average in three OTT subscriptions than their counterparts in south India who invested on an average in two OTT subscriptions. The Gen Z invested on an average in 3 OTT subscriptions while Millennials invested in 2 OTT subscriptions during the same period. The report does not give details of the demographic profile of the sample, but we can safely assume that the sample was skewed towards higher SECs as indicated by higher spends on OTT subscription by Gen Z, most of whom would not have been financially independent and had to ask their parents for the subscription money. Obviously their parents were not financially affected due to the economic slowdown during the lockdown and could afford to indulge their children. The report therefore captures mainly the trends of OTT consumption of urban youths from 5 to 25 years age belonging mostly to NCCS A and the top 8 metros.

     

    The report has also captured that 73% have no concern about the content of the OTT platforms. The other 27% have stated obscene content, anti-national content, strong and bold language of the content as well as content hurting sentiments of religion/ caste as causes of concern related to OTT platforms. On the other hand all respondents had concerns about internet connections, pop-up ads and buffering related to steaming of the contents. Both Millennials and Gen Z have shown a clear preference for OTT services and believes that the positives factors outweigh the negatives.

     

     

    The report concludes that content distribution, attractive marketing, transitioning the gaming industry and personalisation are the key factors which is helping consumption of OTT platforms to dominate over consumption of traditional TV viewing. The analysis does not mention about the tie ups between OTT platforms and Telecom giants like Airtel, VI and Jio, a practice which began in 2017/ 2018 and has been continuing since then.

     

    As per the range of packages offered by the three telecom companies, it appears the leading OTT platforms do not believe in exclusive tie ups with any single telecom company and have created a level playing field for all the service providers by having tie ups with all of them. It seems this survey did not probe into this aspect of free subscription with mobile connection among the Gen Z and Millennials, most of whom would have been enjoying some such free benefits through a single sign in. The findings of the reports outweigh the apparent skewing of the sample and a few gaps and have provided all of us a crystal globe for gazing into the future of media consumption.

     

     

  • Indrani Sen hopes that adequate notice would be given to the industry for changing their ads as per the new guidelines

    Can ASCI Play A Role In Review of Surrogate Advertising?

     

    By Indrani Sen

     

    In the week before the last, the Consumer Affairs Ministry had issued a draft of the Central Consumer Protection Authority (Prevention of Misleading Advertisements and Necessary Due Diligence for Endorsement of Advertisements) Guidelines, 2020 requesting people to submit their comments and suggestions on the guidelines by September 18, 2020. As per industry estimates based on TAM Adex data, the size of total surrogate advertising in India is around Rs 700-800 crore per annum with 70% share of TV in the pie. The new draft guidelines, if enforced with immediate effect, may affect the post lockdown financial recovery of TV channels.

    Along with guidelines for endorsements, definitions for valid advertising, new rules for advertisements targeting children etc., the new guidelines clearly prohibit surrogate advertising — the practice of promoting banned products like liquor and tobacco by promoting another product under the umbrella of ‘Brand Extension’ unless the promotion of the said product advertised under the same brand name can be substantiated with certain proofs of its legitimacy. The legitimacy would be judged based on (a) if the new product is produced, distributed and sold in ‘reasonable quantities’ having regard to the scale of the advertising campaign in question, the media used, and the markets targeted and (b) do not have any direct or indirect indication of a banned product. While the guide lines do not give definition of ‘reasonable quantities’, the same allow for some concessions like advertisements wouldn’t be disqualified just for using similar branding of a banned product.

    The revised guideline issued by the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting  last week, under rule number 7(2)(vih)(A) of Advertising Code in the Cable Television Network Rule 1994,  notifies that all such TV commercials  falling under the ‘Brand Extension’ of  banned products like cigarettes,  other tobacco products, wine, alcohol, liquor etc. will have to be first previewed by Central Board of Film Certification and certified as fit for consumption before any TV channel can broadcast the same. It is not very clear from the advisory if the legitimacy of the product will also be reviewed by the CBFC or if that would be done separately by the MIB before the advertiser invests in the production of the TV commercial. Traditionally, the Chairman and members of the CBFC are from the film and entertainment industry. The CEOs are usually selected from bureaucrats like Ravinder Bhakar, a 1999 batch officer of Indian Railway Stores Service (IRSS), who has taken over as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Central Board of Films Certification (CBFC) from March 2020.

    Can ASCI play an active role in this entire new process of decision making on surrogate advertising?  They would be in a far better position to judge the legitimacy of the product than the MIB or CBFC.       ASCI’s role has been acclaimed by various Government bodies including The Department of Consumer Affairs (DoCA), Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI), Ministry of AYUSH as well as the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB). In January 2017, the Supreme Court of India in its judgement affirmed and recognized the self-regulatory mechanism as an effective pre-emptive step to statutory provisions in the sphere of advertising content regulation for TV and Radio in India.

    I read a research paper ‘Surrogate Advertising or Brand Extension Advertising: A Need for Strict Norms’ authored by Prof. Neha Bansal in International Journal of Marketing & Financial Management, Vol. 2, Issue 1, Jan-Feb-2014 ISSN: 2348 –3954. Prof. Bansal presented in her paper a six point formula for developing and implementing strict norms:

    1. Developing an explicit plan of action.

    2. Code to differentiate between acceptable advertising from unacceptable advertising.

    3. Translucent laws for banning such kind surrogate promotion.

    4. More powers in hands of ASCI.

    5. Increase consumer awareness.

    6. Strict actions against those involved to set lesson for future wrong doers.

     

    The Consumer Affairs Ministry and the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting have taken steps in the right direction except involving ASCI in the process. ASCI can also explain to the ministry the need for having a two step approval process, first getting the legitimacy of the brand extension approved and then applying for the approval of the TV commercial to avoid the financial loss of investing in a TVC and then getting stuck at the approval stage on the legitimacy issues. ASCI can also  advise the government regarding the paper work needed for establishing the legitimacy of the products  as ‘non-surrogate’ and as genuine brand extension. We can only hope that good sense will prevail in the implementation of the new rules drafted by the government and adequate notice would be given to the industry for changing their advertising campaigns as per the new guidelines.