MxMIndia

Category: SHAILESH KAPOOR

  • In a highly heterogenous Hindi market, what is ‘compelling content’ is a far more complex question than a far more homogenous (and better educated) market like Kerala, writes Shailesh Kapoor

    Shailesh Kapoor: Hindi cinema takes a summer break, even as Malayalam cinema soars

    Shailesh KapoorWe are in the thick of the elections season, and in the middle of a typically exciting IPL. It is set to be a fertile summer for the media and entertainment business in India, but for one sector. The theatrical business in Hindi language will see an unusual lull, lasting at least a couple of months, if not more.

    Two films clashed on Eid this week, and from now till at least early July, all we have is a line-up of low-budget, non-starcast releases. While South cinema continues to have a somewhat busier lineup, Hindi cinema is going to be on a break of sorts. It’s an unprecedented occurrence in my living memory, except when the industry was impacted by extraneous factors like demonetisation or the pandemic.

    2023 was a strong year for the theatrical business, and four Hindi language films (Jawan, Gadar 2, Pathaan and Animal) headlined the post-pandemic recovery of the Indian theatrical business, which touched an all-time high domestic gross of INR 12,226 Crore. The follow-up in 2023 started on a fine note, and the first quarter grossed about 900 Cr, which is only about 10% lower than the same period last year, despite no mega film like Pathaan (Jan 2023 release). But the second quarter could struggle to be even close to half of the first quarter’s number, and one will have to wait for the second half of the year for catch-up.

    This uneven release cycle is reflective of the general lack of confidence in the Hindi film industry on viability of mid-range films at the box office. With the arrival of streaming, such films have struggled at the box office, even as the bigger films have gotten bigger with time (see this analysis). This has led to several projects being revisited as OTT films, or being shelved altogether.  Theatres in the Hindi markets simply won’t have enough viable software to play over the next three months.

    In sharp contrast is Malayalam cinema, which is on a dream run in 2024. Manjummel Boys, which released in February, is the highest-grossing Malayalam film of all-time, having grossed about 160 cr in India, and still going strong. It has been supported by a slew of compelling Malayalam films, and the share of Malayalam cinema stands at the box-office currently stands at about 18%, which is a staggering three times its share in 2022 and 2023.

    Malayalam cinema is high on content (theme, concept, story, etc.), and relies far lesser on stars than its Telugu, Tamil and Hindi counterparts. As on date, Malayalam cinema has grossed 80% more than Tamil cinema this year, a unimaginable finding, given that Tamil theatrical audience in India in 2023 were 2.5 times that of Malayalam, and Tamil footfalls were three times those of Malayalam.

    In 2024, this could be the emerging theme at the Indian box office: Mega blockbusters will gross big numbers, but compelling content will drive growth and consistency. But in a highly heterogenous Hindi market, what is ‘compelling content’ is a far more complex question than a far more homogenous (and better educated) market like Kerala. But that’s another story, for another day!

  • Two Types of News Media: A Tale of Two Indias?

    Two Types of News Media: A Tale of Two Indias?

    Shailesh KapoorThe divide between linear TV and digital (OTT/ streaming) in India is well established now. IPL perhaps is the easiest way to explain it. Both in terms of viewership and revenue, linear and digital are in the 40-60% share bracket. This near-equal split aptly tells the story of two media.

    But in examples like the IPL, the story is primarily about audience size and monetisation, but never about the content. Because the content is essentially the same, barring some paraphernalia. This is also true for catch-up television, where digital may be generating 20-30% of audience size, but the content is again the same.

    But there’s one category where the divide is fundamental in nature, and extends to content: News. It’s election season, and news is the genre of the season, apart from the IPL. Till a few weeks ago, this election was being called a no-contest. But no election is, even if many feel the result is a foregone conclusion. Things have heated up, and not always in a good way. We are still another five weeks away from the results, and we can expect more fireworks, to use a mild word.

    If you watch news on TV channels (or their YouTube feeds/ channels), you will see a certain kind of coverage. But if you follow the elections in digital media, including YouTube, you will see something very different. It’s a tale of two Indias, so to speak.

    Last week, PM Modi made a highly controversial speech in Rajasthan, where he specifically singled out a religious community, and quite uncharitably so. The way this story has shaped up in linear TV news channels and digital media is remarkably different. The digital coverage is more analytical and evidence-based in nature, while that on TV is more dramatic and confrontational. Of course, it also means very different political stances on the speech, in the two media.

    And that’s true for all political news, in general, today. It’s not just the content, but even the tone, tenor, and treatment are poles apart. This segmentation of the news genre is compelling, but also tricky, because it means that the nature of the media is deciding the discourse!

    Digital news is nowhere close to linear TV news on monetisation. Almost all of it is free, and YouTube monetisation is hard to come by, unless you have big numbers. Some digital news platforms do not take advertising to make the larger point about free media. Relying on subscriber support can be hard, especially in a category where there are too many options available. But it’s a fundamental stance these platforms have taken.

    Hence, unlike the IPL, the share of viewership or monetisation is not in the 40-60% range, but closer to 20-80% or even 10-90%. If the content was the same, digital news would have been on the fringes, battling irrelevance. But because of the content contrast, it manages to breathe. At least for the moment.

  • Summer Diaries: Elections, Cricket & More

    Summer Diaries: Elections, Cricket & More

    Shailesh KapoorWe are hitting peak summers, and elections are generating their share of heat too. Having watched election coverage over the years, it is impossible to not experience déjà vu. With all the growth in technology, election rallies continue to be a prominent election feature since the 1950s. I first remember watching election rallies in the late 80s, and visuals from the current elections look remarkably similar, just better in video quality.

    Elections are one place where the poor and the rural population, otherwise ignored by media for most part, comes into the mainstream, simply because each vote carries equal value, and the numbers are heavily stacked up outside the big cities and the affluent classes. And this hasn’t changed over decades now.

    But one thing that has changed is the use of the word “manifesto”. Over so many elections, one got a feeling that the term was moving out of election lexicon, and there didn’t seem to be even basic awareness about it among the general voters. But the Congress manifesto being targeted by BJP has stirred up things, and it is hard to find any political speech or interview where the M-word is not uttered.

    We are less than halfway into these long elections, and still four-and-a-half weeks away from June 4, which is the results day. June will be the more interesting month compared to May, as results lead to headlines, irrespective of how emphatic or fractured the mandate is.

    Interestingly, the T20 World Cup kicks off in the same week, and India play their first game on June 5, followed by a marquee clash with Pakistan on June 9. Even the T20 World Cup is month-long now, extending from June 2 to June 29. The venue may be West Indies and USA, but BCCI’s might ensures all India games are 8PM IST. After all, there’s an IPL slot to fill!

    India looks for its first World Cup win in this format since the nobody-saw-it-coming win in the inaugural edition in 2007. But irrespective of whether that happens or not, we are in for a double bill of politics and cricket in June.

    Meanwhile, Malayalam cinema is making waves, and setting all kind of crazy records, which deserve a separate piece of its own someday. After a euphoric 2023, the theatrical business has been tepid so far this year, but for the astonishing performance of Malayalam cinema, which is set to cross its 2023 annual number in just 4.5 months in 2024!

    And since I frequently rant in this column about the lack of innovation in Hindi GEC content, I should take a moment to acknowledge a trend that surprised me, and very pleasantly so. My colleagues Keerat Grewal and Aakriti Bhatia have put together this report on how Hindi GEC women are not housewives anymore. It’s a crazy trend, and even if you have no interest in GECs, I highly recommend reading it, just as a showcase of how data can be so powerful in revealing trends, and in such a simple manner too.

  • IPL’s Run Feast & the Future of Cricket
    From Wikipedia

    IPL’s Run Feast & the Future of Cricket

    Shailesh KapoorWe are in the second half of another engrossing edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL0. While the beats of IPL are now all too familiar, this season has managed to catch our attention because of the consistent stream of high scores we have witnessed. Two days ago, Sunrisers Hyderabad chased down 166 in less than 10 overs, without losing a wicket.

    The Hyderabad team has been at the forefront of the run feast that’s been unleased in IPL 2024. They account for three of the Top 4 team scores this season, including the top entry: a staggering 287 vs. Bangalore. In the 2024 edition, the 250-mark has been breached eight times already. And we are still 14 games away from the tournament’s end. In contrast, the 2023 edition saw 250 being breached only once, over the entire event!

    This is not an increment change. It’s a sign that the game may be evolving faster than one imagines. 300 is not far away, one imagines. And who knows what the upper limit in a 20-overs innings could be.

    Purists would argue that this makes the sport all too one-sided in the batter’s favour. But the audience, who are essentially there from entertainment, are certainly not complaining. And there is Test cricket for the purists anyway. It’s difficult to compare IPL viewership over the years because the digital component does not have transparency on viewership reporting, and the split between linear and digital continues to change with each passing year. But it’s safe to say that we may be in the middle of the most-watched IPL season of all time.

    The IPL will make way for the T20 World Cup, and the IPL run feast will invariably extend to T20 international games too. This may have been a boost cricket needed, for some sort of global expansion, which the governing body of the sport has been trying for years now, often half-heartedly, mostly unsuccessfully. If only they muster the courage to pull the plug on the ODI format, the future of cricket may not be that bad after all.

    In our latest sports report released in March this year, the awareness and viewership numbers for some of the foreign T20 leagues, especially the Big Bash (Australia), Caribbean Premier League and Pakistan Super League were very healthy. It shows that the Indian audience has developed an appetite for T20-formatted entertainment over time, and this will only rise if we have more high-scoring games. Perhaps it’s time to bring the Champions League, an idea that was too early for its times back in 2008.

    Meanwhile, with 14 games to go, I’m rooting for 300. Sunrisers have two home games to go, and we may not have to wait too long.

  • All Eyes on June 4

    All Eyes on June 4

    Shailesh KapoorTill a couple of months ago, the fate of the now-ongoing elections was signed and sealed. From them till now, there has been more excitement, even though the outcome is unlikely to be different from the one originally predicted, going by various accounts. June 4, the designated day for counting and results, is set to be a huge day from a media perspective, even though being a working day would curtail daytime viewership.

    Our news channels have not surprised us one bit during their coverage of these elections, predictably toeing the lines they have for almost a decade now. Yet, it is difficult to not appreciate the relentless hard work that a political journalist, however biased, must put in during elections as long-drawn as these have been.

    What has been different about the media playout of these elections is the increasing role social media, especially viral WhatsApp and Reels, have played in information dissemination. While the impact of such platforms was evident even in the previous two elections, it continues to get more mainstream, given the growing audience base with each passing year.

    We have also seen some young politicians provide entertain in good measure, infusing fresh energy amidst election fatigue, and providing fodder for viral videos too. Akhilesh Yadav is an old hand, but he has been in good form this year in his rallies. Priyanka Gandhi has impressed with her deft oration in Hindi. Kanhaiya Kumar has been expectedly feisty in his speeches. But the one who has really stood out is Tejashwi Yadav. I’m sure we will hear more of him soon.

    June 4 punctuates two big cricket matches: the IPL final about a week before it, and an India-Pakistan World T20 clash a week after. Between these three days, we can expect huge sums of advertising moneys to be spent on media, both traditional and digital.

    The day I’m looking forward to even more is June 1. It’s the last day of polling, and in the evening, the Election Commission embargo on sharing exit poll findings will be lifted. More than what the exit polls have to say, I’m looking for some humor in the mad rush one can expect our news channels to indulge in, that evening. Over the last two months, several pollsters have been on news channels, giving cryptic, qualitative hints, when they should be faithfully abstaining from media presence, in true spirit of the very logical embargo. But it’s hard to resist media coverage, I guess.

    By all accounts, second week of June should see return to media normalcy, unless we witness the unlikely scenario of a hung Parliament. But that’s still two exciting weeks away.

  • The traction this idea has got from audiences is quite overwhelming, writes Shailesh Kapoor

    Shailesh Kapoor: Cinema Lovers Day: Bollywood’s New Demand Stimulator

    Shailesh KapoorToday is Cinema Lovers Day. Yes, that’s the name the Multiplex Association of India (MAI) has given to an occasion they have celebrated a few times since they first came up with the idea in September 2022. Tickets in major multiplexes (often excluding South India) are priced at ₹99, to stimulate demand. The day has been used tactically in periods of lull in Hindi cinema, when no big-ticket films are running, or scheduled to release soon.

    The traction this idea has got from audiences is quite overwhelming. For instance, Mr. & Mrs. Mahi, today’s Hindi release starring Rajkummar Rao and Janhvi Kapoor, was tracking at ₹3.2 Cr first-day box office in our forecast tracker Ormax Cinematix, before Cinema Lovers Day was announced three days ago. The film is expected to collect about ₹5.5-6.0 Cr, possibly even higher.

    These collections come at almost half the ticket price (average ticket price for such films tends to be about ₹180 on the opening day. Which means that the demand must increase four-fold, for the collections to double. One doesn’t need more stark evidence on the impact of ticket price on cinema-going. Or so it would seem.

    If lower ticket prices could increase demand four-fold, and double the collections, every day should be celebrated a Cinema Lovers Day. But it’s easy to see that this tactic works because it’s sporadic, say like the Prime Day on Amazon.

    From this rigorous analysis conducted by our team in 2023, it seems evident that ticket prices have an impact on the decision to watch a film in a theatre, but only incrementally so. The content’s appeal, determined by its cast, genre, trailer, music, etc., is the primary decision-making factor.

    The performance at the box office on Cinema Lovers Day may suggest that the analysis above is faulty. But it’s the co-existence of these two ideas is fascinating: Audiences are not overly price sensitive when it comes to a film they really want to watch, but when a discount offer is available, they will grab it with both hands for a film that qualifies as a decent watch in their books.

    One, then, hopes MAI doesn’t milk this idea dry. It’s a great idea for seasonal use, possibly even once a quarter. But make it a fixture, and the box office would not respond. Audiences may end up waiting for lower ticket price offers for bigger films too, which then makes those films unviable, because the demand cannot increase four-fold if you have an organic potential of 50-70% occupancy.

    On a side note, the name Cinema Lovers Day amuses me. If at all, the ₹99 idea is the anti-thesis of “loving” cinema. Cinephiles would be the least price sensitive, and will display higher urgency to watch new films at regular ticket prices anyway. The discount is actually targeting the casual audiences, who don’t necessarily “love” cinema, but don’t mind a visit to a theatre once in a while, to hangout with their friends, or to simply enjoy the air-conditioner in the scorching summer heat.

    But why quibble over a name, when the idea is working. Cinema Lovers Day is here to stay. The next edition may not be too far away.

  • Exit Polls: A ‘No Confidence’ Motion

    Exit Polls: A ‘No Confidence’ Motion

    AI generated image showing an abstract representation of the discrepancies between the Exit Poll results and the actual results declared on June 4.

     

    Shailesh KapoorThe marathon elections are finally past us. But not without a result not many saw coming when the elections season started three months ago. The results on June 4 came as a surprise to many, particularly because a plethora of exit polls funded by mainline news channels of the country had predicted a resounding victory for the Narendra Modi-led NDA, with almost all of them giving the alliance 350+ seats, and some even predicting ‘400 paar’.

    As we know now, even ‘300 par’ didn’t materialise. Since then, there has been intense debate about exit polls, and whether their inaccurate predictions are simply a case of incompetence on the part of multiple agencies, or a result of malafide intent to influence the stock market. I have been asked this question more than a few times over the last 10 days, in my capacity as the head of a media research firm.

    While I’m no stockmarket expert, the scam allegations seem a bit far-fetched. It would take multiple agencies to comply with the perpetrators of the scam, put their reputation on the line, and hope that they make some illegal money off it. The history of scams suggest they are ‘designed’ in a way that they are under the radar, far from the public eye. Exit polls were anything but that. In any case, I don’t see how we will know any more on this topic anytime soon.

    The incompetence argument is a lot more persuasive one. Despite large sample sizes (while not all polls reveal their methodology and sample design, some do), and the claim to have covered all 543 constituencies, and represented different demographic segments adequately, how do so many polls get it wrong? In my opinion, the incompetence doesn’t lie in their ability to conduct field surveys, but in their lack of confidence to look at the findings dispassionately. All quantitative research that comes with the responsibility of predicting an outcome will operate on ranges, rather than exact numbers. And it’s now evident that the exit polls were leaned towards the higher ends of their ranges, and probably stretched them further. One poll made sure its upper end was 401, and another went for the round figure: 400!

    Over the course of this year’s election coverage, we have seen many pollsters become election experts, going beyond analysing their data, and entering domains of political analysis that’s best left to journalists with their ears to the ground. Bafflingly, many editors of mainline news channels have encouraged this, by giving pollsters a platform on their shows every night, even during the period when the Election Commission embargo on exit poll results was in play.

    It may be hard to resist fame, but if it comes at the cost of objectivity, a pollster must examine if it’s worth it. As it is, our news channels operate like echo chambers, and it is hard to not get influenced by their narratives if they are platforming you as an important talking head.

    So, the pollsters have gone wrong in their minds, probably working backwards from a pre-decided outcome they talked themselves into believing. It’s impossible to say what conclusions a more objective analysis on their data would have led them to conclude.

    In any case, exit polls seem to quite a wasteful indulgence for news channels. But it’s a vicious loop, because no channel wants to miss out on an evening’s hype. Just like no pollster wants to be the only one who got it wrong!

  • Crumbling of the Bollywood star system is imminent

    Crumbling of the Bollywood star system is imminent

    Shailesh KapoorOver the last year or two, there has been escalating media coverage how remunerations demanded by Bollywood stars are making Hindi film-making an increasingly-difficult business. The top rung of stars, such as the three Khans, have either turned producers, or forgone their fee against what’s called a ‘backend’ deal (typically referring to a distribution or licensing deal), the next line continues to operate on fixed fee structures, where the numbers increased significantly since before the pandemic. There’s also a lot of conversation about star entourages, and how ridiculous their costs are.

    Now all this would just be gossip, if the stars could justify these fees through their box-office performance. But that’s not happening at all. The biggest ‘Hindi’ language film of the first six months of 2024 is likely to be the dubbed Hindi version of Kalki 2898 AD, which released yesterday. A non-starcast, concept-led film Munjya is set to cross the Rs 100 cr mark, even as star-led titles made at much higher budgets, such as Bade Miyan Chote Miyan, Maidaan, and Chandu Champion, have fallen well short.

    For a year or two after the pandemic, streaming platforms were in a mad rush to acquire theatrical films. Since these deals happened before the theatrical release, the star power came into the picture. With time, and facing their own share of challenges related to stagnant subscriber growth and profitability, streamers have become conscious, and are often insisting on deal structures that have box office linkages.The message is clear: If the star cannot pull an audience in the theatres, he (or she) is not ‘saleable’ on OTT either.

    Movie channels in linear television have been on the decline anyway in the post-NTO world. Licence fees for satellite rights is no longer a prominent item on the P&L of most films. The reliance on theatrical (box-office) revenues is only going to go up in the coming year or two. And all evidence suggests that stars cannot pull in the audience anymore on their own strength, and need the story or the concept to work for the film to stand any chance on the theatrical front.

    It is hard to imagine how any of this is sustainable. Hindi film producers cannot even make films that go direct to OTT anymore. There is no demand for such films, either from the streamer or the audience side. There is only one way out: Stars must understand that the audiences and the marketplace has evolved, and bite into the humble pie that a pay cut can be. They can also be a lot more prudent in their film selection, aligning it with evolving audience tastes and expectations in a digital-first, post-pandemic era.

    Whether that will happen is anyone’s guess.

  • Food For Thought: TV’s Pop Culture Problem

    Food For Thought: TV’s Pop Culture Problem

    Shailesh KapoorScrolling through TV ratings reports a couple of weeks ago, I could not help noticing Laughter Chefs. The show, launched on Colors on June 1, 2024, is doing better numbers than most reality shows, including established franchises, have managed in the last year or so. A rating of 1.5 on the weekends, over a duration of 1.5 hours (sometimes longer), is no mean feat in a category where 1.5 is now seen as a successful number even for mainline fiction content. And here’s a low-cost non-fiction show that comes without much fanfare, and manages to score very well, largely on account of engagement (time spent).

    I ended up watching an episode, and then a few more. The show is irresistibly unapologetic about its loose format, which is in itself a loose adaptation of the iconic Tamil show Cooku With Comali, which created the most unlikely hybrid TV genre ever – comedy-based cooking competition! In Laughter Chefs, a string of TV stars, recognised via their work in fiction series, comedy shows and/or Bigg Boss, take part in a cooking competition, where the rules are limited to the bare minimum.

    There’s nothing here that can add to your knowledge, or inspire you, nor strike an emotional chord. It’s pure fun, but a lot of it at that, if you find cheesy Hindi comedy in the mainstream format palatable (all puns intended). I particularly liked the specific use of Bollywood songs in the background to enhance the comedy. It’s not a lazy selection of popular songs, but songs across the decades, including many from the 90s, that have been handpicked to dial up the humor at that very moment. I almost wanted to watch more just for this reason.

    Why is this show not being spoken about more? A search on social media only gives you fan posts, where fanbases of stars in the show are propping their favorites. But there is no media coverage in the trade media on this show, and its unexpected numbers. There’s no analysis on non-fiction comedy finally delivering in the prime-time, after The Kapil Sharma Show had faded away a couple of years ago.

    This absence of coverage is TV’s growing problem. As it is, not too many GEC properties are managing to make any impact whatsoever. But when one does, it has to rely on native channel marketing and organic buildup of word-of-mouth. There’s no social media or general media narrative at all. In an age of extreme content clutter, a worthy property may never find some of its potential audience, because television has moved out of the pop culture even for the most ‘mass’ audiences, it seems.

    Marketing departments at TV networks should be focusing on this as one of their objectives. Because programme, or even channel, marketing will only take you so far, if you are not relevant to the prevailing zeitgeist.

  • Difficult times for Direct-to-OTT films

    Difficult times for Direct-to-OTT films

    Shailesh KapoorEarlier this week, Ormax Media released the mid-year streaming report, on the top original content on OTT in India, in the first half of the year (link). The report is on expected lines, with Panchayat S3 and Heeramandi being the two most-watched OTT originals in the first half of 2024 in India (Mirzapur S3 was released in July and is not covered in this report). However, the decline of the direct-to-OTT film format stands out as a key streaming trend in 2024 so far.

    Only four direct-to-OTT films across languages (though all four happen to be Hindi films) have crossed an estimated viewership of 10 Million in the first half of the year: Amar Singh Chamkila, Murder Mubarak, Ae Watan Mere Watan, and Maharaj. In contrast, nine fiction series (8 Hindi and The Boys S4 from Hollywood) and four unscripted shows (reality/documentary formats) have managed to achieve this mark.

    The direct-to-OTT film format gained immense traction in 2020-21, during the lockdowns, when theatrical films were forced to release directly on the medium. This led to many films being commissioned for OTT, and many films that were originally conceived for a theatrical release curtail their ambition, and opt for a safer, invariably profitable, OTT release.

    Last year’s viewership report had Prime Video’s Bawaal at more than 20 Million estimated viewers in India, despite the film getting mixed reactions from the audience and the critics. Those numbers seem like a distant dream now. No film has touched the 13 Million mark in the first half of this year, and from what it looks like, we may not have one in the second half either.

    Platforms are not keen on commissioning direct-to-OTT films anymore. These films must be marketed as standalone properties, compared to theatrical releases, which come pre-marketed. Theatrical films dwarf direct-to-OTT films on viewership, and carry much higher potency to generate new subscriptions too. Direct-to-OTT films don’t offer the scope for franchise building either, like a series would do. Franchise shows dominate the viewership charts for all platforms.

    This spells bad news for cinema that lacks a certain minimum scale needed to make it big-sreeen worthy. With big films continuing to get bigger (Kalki 2898 AD alone accounted for 15% of India box office in the first half of 2024), the smaller, more intimate films, that rely on realistic storytelling rather than larger-than-life portrayals, were beginning to find a good destination on OTT. But that’s no longer the case.

    Where do such films go? If they release theatrically, they carry the tag of a flop when they come on streaming. They invariably underperform, and this creates further doubts at the platform end, on whether such films are worth spending money on.

    We may well be entering a phase when such cinema, that cannot appeal to the theatrical audience’s post-pandemic taste, will phase itself out. The makers would try and tell the same stories through series instead. But it’s not as if the series business is flourishing in 2024 either.

    The streaming honeymoon in India is clearly over. And the decline of the direct-to-OTT film format in 2024 is a telltale sign.

  • Entertainment in Limbo

    Entertainment in Limbo

    Shailesh KapoorIn more than 25 years of observing the Indian media and entertainment industry closely, there has never been a period like the one we are in currently. Every mainline sector of the industry is going through a phase of stagnancy or descendancy. It is difficult to say if any of this will change anytime in a hurry.

    The television industry has been struggling to hold on to pay subscribers. The drops are not sizeable in percentage terms. But in a country where more than 30% of the population still doesn’t have access to TV, growth should be a given. Instead, we are looking at stagnant numbers. Because BARC India hasn’t conducted a baseline study in a while, this data point is open to debate. On the revenue front, the EY-FICCI report projects positive revenue growth, but that’s a little hard to believe in the current scenario.

    On the content front, big-ticket cricket is the only marquee property type that television has to show. Nothing on mainline Hindi GECs is in that league anymore.

    Over the last couple of years, the popular narrative suggested streaming is the future, and television will slowly make way for it. But the streaming numbers paint a picture of their own. In our recently published OTT report, India’s digital video audience size went up by 14%, from 481 Mn to 547 Mn. But this entire growth comes from the AVOD segment, largely on the back of new audiences who have entered the category via YouTube and social media videos.

    As new audiences enter, one would expect those already there to move to the next level. In case of OTT, this would mean from AVOD to SVOD. That hasn’t happened at all, and the total paid subscriptions seem to have frozen in time. Audiences outside the Top 15 cities are not keen to pay for OTT subscriptions, and the Top 15 cities have reached their saturation point post the pandemic.

    The evident slowdown in content production makes the picture look gloomier. The number of originals on OTT this year may be a good 30-40% less than 2023. Next year could be even lower. Creators (producers, writers, directors) who were navigating multiple projects last year are now in sustenance mode.

    The theatrical category is doing decent numbers, but matching last year’s box-office will be a tough ask. In any case, a handful of big films are driving the box-office, and the long tail has weakened considerably, leading to a lot of scepticism, and a general drop in the number of Hindi releases. We are currently in one such period, where there are no major releases for several weeks after Stree 2’s release on Independence Day.

    The silver lining comes via positive signs on the larger consumer sentiment and demand in the country. Evidently, media advertising will ride on this sentiment. But that could be the only tangible positive for the Indian media industry currently.

    Hopefully, there are positive developments round the corner, which will pleasantly surprise us. For now, the next few months may be those of wait and watch.

  • Free over Pay: Reset Time for Streaming?

    Free over Pay: Reset Time for Streaming?

    Shailesh Kapoor2023 saw the release of 383 streaming originals in India, across languages and formats (fiction series, direct-to-OTT films, unscripted, etc), across all major OTT platforms (excluding YouTube and social media) put together. That’s more than one launch a day. The equivalent number in 2024 so far is a lot more modest. On a pro rata basis, the year can be expected to just about touch the 300 originals mark, a good 20% below last year.

    Clearly, streaming platforms are commissioning less content than before. The number of originals were significantly higher than 300 in both 2021 and 2022 (337 and 368 respectively). Effectively, we are back to the pre-pandemic levels in terms of supply of Indian OTT originals. Like the US, our peak TV phase (which we never really celebrated last year) is also over.

    One can call it a slowdown or a correction, depending on how one looks at things in general. But semantics apart, the signs are there for us to see. Streaming originals may not be the next big story anymore. The OTT category is still growing, with immense headroom for growth, given that only 38% of Indians watch digital videos at least once a month. But this growth will come via sports, YouTube, social media videos, news, comedy, catch-up television, etc., all of which are ‘free’ content forms on OTT in India today. On the paid side, new theatrical films were already a strong force, and are going to be get increasingly stronger compared to originals in the coming times.

    A huge creators economy has flourished in India on the back of the demand for OTT originals, and one can already sense the impact the supply slowdown is having on this economy. It doesn’t help that the film (theatrical) industry is not producing a lot of content either, especially in Hindi.

    In all this, traditional linear television, the punching bag of many, could emerge as an unlikely saviour. The TV industry has been on perception and business decline, but it’s nowhere close to losing relevance, and a bounce back is not entirely ruled out. But even there, free-to-air platforms, more than the pay ones, seem to be better positioned to drive some growth in the future.

    Has the pay-for-content endeavour in India died a premature death? The top platforms like Netflix and Prime Video would choose to differ. And indeed, “death” may not be the accurate term. But pay TV or pay OTT are going to go through their toughest challenge yet, in the coming year or two. And all eyes will be on the big players in the category to shape the trajectory ahead.