Ranjona Banerji: Ears to the ground? USA: No, India on demonetisation: Yes

By Ranjona Banerji

So everyone got it wrong about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton: Pollsters, analysts, political observers, politicians, journalists, women, African Americans, Hispanics and even the world in general. Barring perhaps Vladmir Putin and Julian Assange. But let’s leave the conspiracy theories aside for a bit.

One perhaps unpalatable truth is that almost everyone read the American presidential election wrong. And almost everyone most likely projected their own ideas on their “expert views”. The other unpalatable truth is that polling is no longer coming up with the right answers enough times. Indian pollsters are now notorious for getting it wrong more times than they get it right. The Brexit pollsters got it wrong. The US pollsters got it wrong.

This cannot mean that polling itself is redundant but that some methods need to change. A rethink, rejig, recalibration, whatever you want to call it, is required.

As for journalists, what is wrong is even worse. It means that too many people do not have their ears to the ground. They pick up what they think is right or what they think should happen. But somewhere across the people of America and members of the Electoral College, something else was brewing. It could have been so completely secret so, chances are, these views and opinions were being ignored or dismissed as unimportant.

And then there are the conspiracy theories, starting with the timing of the Wikileaks’ leaks on Hillary Clinton’s emails, allegations of Russian hackers working against Clinton, the FBI’s release of those emails and then after stirring the pot declaring her innocent of wrongdoing, Facebook’s alogorithms which were pro-Trump, the Alt-Right’s silent online movement to get Trump elected – there are any number of these doing the rounds in blogs and in the mainstream media.

Perhaps then hardened journalists could have kept one eye on what was happening online as well? Definitely, lessons aplenty here as the world comes to terms with The Donald as Leader of the Free World.

Meanwhile, there all those horrifying stories of racist attacks on non-white people across America and protest rallies as well.

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Back home, we were hit by the Prime Minister’s sneak attack on Black Money and the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes within hours of his speech on November 8. The media could have hit a congratulatory note here and stayed on its cheerleading course. But much as no honest person in India supports either tax evasion or black money collection, the suddenness of the move shocked everyone.

All forms of the media concentrated on the hardships faced by what we call the “common man”. Massive queues at banks, daily wage labourers with no bank accounts who scrimped and saved what is now worthless paper, hospitals, chemists, petrol pumps unaware that they were supposed to accepted demonetised notes, patients being turned away, dying and more horrific stuff.

Newspaper editorials have hailed the move and the intent but questioned the lack of forethought. Other commentators have been more scathing. Cynics have pointed out that black money hoarders are cleverer than that. On the whole, the media has redeemed itself by concentrating on India’s underprivileged. Some ears to the ground, definitely!