Tag: Dentsu Aegis Network

  • Dentsu and iProspect bring Female Foundry to India

    By A Correspondent

     

    As part of One@DentsuAegis, a programme developed to support diversity and innovation across the business, Dentsu Aegis Network, and its digital agency iProspect, have formalised an initiative to mentor female start-ups in India.

     

    The initiative – Female Foundry – will launch in the country after its successful run in Singapore.

     

    Female Foundry aims to drive diversity and inclusion in business.  It provides access to tools, training, connections and resources, empowering female entrepreneurs to thrive in today’s complex digital economy.

     

    In India, Rubeena Singh, CEO, iProspect India will be running the initiative with an extended leadership team from across Dentsu Aegis Network and strategic business partners which include clients and other third parties.

     

    Talking about the initiative, Singh said: “As you know, iProspect has women leaders across its offices in the world. Internally, we run various programmes to help women reach the leadership programmes. Take Women@iprospect, for instance, which caters to junior and mid-level women who have a capability to be a leader tomorrow. Female Foundry is more than just an initiative for us. We are leading the programme in India, along with the help of DAN leadership and resources as well as our partners who have volunteered, to help build a more cohesive ecosystem for women entrepreneurs.”

     

    Added Ashish Bhasin, CEO Greater South, Dentsu Aegis Network and Chairman & CEO India: “DAN as a network has been at the forefront of encouraging and supporting entrepreneurs. Women play an important role in every aspect of business today – from leading companies to building new ventures. We are proud to bring Female Foundry to India as we believe that getting the right mentorship is necessary for anyone to grow especially in today’s competitive world. To succeed in what ones believes in needs constant learning. And I believe that the day one does that, it is the day we stop growing – personally or professionally.”

     

     

  • Happy Mcgarrybowen appoints Mahendra Bhagat as NCD

    By A Correspondent

     

    Mahendra Bhagat

    Dentsu Aegis Network agency Happy mcgarrybowen has strengthened its creative team with the appointment of Mahendra Bhagat as National Creative Director.

     

    With over 20 years of experience in the industry, Bhagat has worked with agencies like Enterprise, SSC&B Lintas, JWT and FCB for brands like Titan, Britannia, Times of India, Godrej and Unilever.

     

    Agnello Dias

    Commenting on his appointment, Agnello Dias, Creative Chairman, Dentsu Aegis Network India said: “I have worked with Mahendra during my last stint at an agency, and always felt he had a calm, collected, creative mind without the tantrums that some creative people have. He is keen to understand the brand’s point of view and apply his undoubted creative skills to find a solution. He has a keen art and design eye as well. I’m sure Happy mcgarrybowen will forge a great partnership with him and their clients. I wish him all the best.”

     

    Soumitra Karnik

    Added Soumitra Karnik, Chief Creative Officer, Happy mcgarrybowen: “I am thrilled to have Mahendra in our team as we plan to take Happy mcgarrybowen to the next level. He is a rare creative talent who is on top of the game as far as craft is concerned, and who has managed to use the new media platforms really well. Above anything else, he is a lovely person to work with and I am quite certain that we couldn’t have found a better leader than him. Happy mcgarrybowen is now happier with him around.”

     

    Speaking on his appointment, Bhagat said: “The future of advertising lies in marrying creativity with technology. Instead of relying on traditional mediums, Happy mcgarrybowen is constantly in an exploratory mode; finding a new age communication solutions. Being a relatively young agency, it is buzzing with new ideas and energy. I look forward to channelizing that energy in creating some path breaking work for our clients.”

     

     

  • Sandeep Sawant to lead Hyperspace & Smart City at Denstu

    By A Correspondent

     

    Sandeep Sawant

    Hyperspace India, the shopper marketing agency under Dentsu Aegis Network, has appointed former Madison Retail Paradigm’s Deputy General Manager, Sandeep Sawant to lead the operations. In this role, Sandeep will report to Haresh Nayak, Group MD – Posterscope – South Asia.

     

    Sawant joins Hyperspace with close to 20 years of extensive experience in Shoppers Marketing, Retail Strategy and Solutions as well as Rural Activation. Prior to MRP, Sandeep was the Vice President at Costra Advertising.

     

    Commenting on his appointment, Nayak said: “We are delighted to welcome Sandeep to Hyperspace. The strategy to triple our business by 2020 was laid one year back, while we have ticked off certain plans to reach our goal, we will now be pushing more aggressively by diversifying our operations in rural markets, combining shoppers experience and implementation capabilities in smart city solutions and future proof our services by bringing in data and technology. With Sandeep’s expertise and skillset, I believe he’s the right fit to take our business ahead.”

     

     

  • Dentsu Aegis Network appoints Deven Dharamdasani as CEO, SVG Media

    By A Correspondent

     

    Dentsu Aegis Network India has promoted erstwhile COO Deven Dharamdasani to the new role of CEO, SVG Media. The network took the decision following the demise of Anurag Gupta, former CEO – SVG Media, in July this year. Additionally, Nitin Sabharwal, former Chief Business Officer – SVG Columbus, has now been elevated to Chief Operating Officer.

     

    Said Ashish Bhasin, CEO, Greater South, Dentsu Aegis Network and Chairman & CEO India said: “Anurag’s passing is a deep and a shocking loss for SVG, for DAN and for the entire Digital fraternity.  Deven, Chirag, Ashwani and Nitin are integral to SVG and they understand and resonate with Anurag’s vision for the agency. I wish them all the luck and look forward to SVG’s growth under their vigilant leadership.” Meanwhile, SVG Media’s mobile business will continue to function under Chirag Shah, CEO, SVG Mobile.

     

     

  • DAN Programmatic launches ‘DAN Vision for Creative’

    By A Correspondent

     

    DAN Programmatic along with Amnet has announced the launch of DAN Vision for Creative, a machine learning- and neuroscience-based engine that delivers new insights into the predicted performance of a creative even before the creative has actually run.

     

    Commenting on the launch, Sidharth Rao, CEO and Co-Founder of Dentsu Webchutney said: “One of the biggest gamechangers in modern marketing is the use of data to better the decision making capabilities of professionals to yield better outcomes. Creativity without data is a shot in the dark. Even when a creative professional claims to follow his gut, he or she is in reality analysing data generated through experiences for a particular outcome. Having co-founded an agency that deploys new age solutions to solve common problems, ‘DAN Vision for Creative’ is just the right weapon to solve the age old creative problem of “Why are certain creatives performing better than the others?.” It is creating for us a unique differentiator by providing a justification or even starting points for our creative approach to deliver brand success.”

     

    Added Gautam Mehra, CEO of DAN Programmatic and Chief Data Officer (South Asia) at Dentsu Aegis Network: “Today, creative testing is about determining which creative is performing better for which audiences. This involves testing 100s of creatives. The byproduct of this is, lots of budgets invested into creative production, time spent to create them, marketing budget spent towards testing them and the time involved to get a confident decision. All of this deters most marketers from doing comprehensive creative testing. To top it all, even after this, all we get is which creative is performing better, and no clue on which element is influencing it to perform better or worse. By combining advanced AI techniques such as RNNs (recurrent neural networks), Computer Vision and NLP (Neuro-Linguistic Programming), we are now able to provide predictive intelligence for the creative even before it goes live. This shortens the creative testing cycle and saves on time and money for our clients. Additionally, DAN Vision for Creative provides clues to the “Why” of the creative; making the future creative cycle even more sharper and focussed,”.

     

     

  • Ashish Bhasin re-elected President of AAAI

    By A Correspondent

     

    Ashish Bhasin

    Ashish Bhasin, CEO – Greater South, Dentsu Aegis Network and Chairman & CEO India, has been re-elected as President of the Advertising Agencies Association of India (AAAI) for the year 2019-20. The announcement was made at the AAAI Annual General Body Meeting held last week.  Anupriya Acharya, CEO, Publicis Media India, has been re-elected as Vice-President of the Association.

     

    Other elected members of the Executive Committee include: Anand Bhadkamkar, Dentsu Aegis Network; Kalyan Sarkar, Standard Publicity; Kunal Lalani, Crayons Advertising, Prasanth Kumar, Group M Media India, Srinivasan K Swamy; RK Swamy BBDO; Vivek Srivastava, Innocean Worldwide Communication. Immediate Past President, Nakul Chopra will be the ex-officio member of the new AAAI Executive Committee.

     

    Said Bhasin: “I thank the members of the AAAI for reposing their faith in me by electing me for another term as the president of this illustrious organisation.  Along with my colleagues in the Executive Committee, I had set out on a mission to make the association more inclusive, diverse and future-ready. While we have made significant progress in some areas, there are many areas which require more work to be done.  I am honoured to be selected for the second term, which will allow the Executive Committee and me to complete the unfinished tasks. The tremendous support and unity that the members of AAAI have shown, makes me proud of our association!”

     

     

  • Dentsu evaluates role of global marketers through latest survey

    By A Correspondent

     

    Dentsu Aegis Network’s 2019 global survey of 1000 CMOs and senior-level marketers in 10 markets – including Australia, China, and Japan in Asia Pacific – highlights a growing challenge for marketing leaders, as they seek to move beyond optimisation and drive business transformation through digital.

     

    Globally, eight out of 10 surveyed recognise the imperative to transform the business in the face of digital disruption, as well as taking more responsibility for product and service innovation over the next 2-3 years. China, in particular, comes out leading this trend with 98 and 96 per cent of respondents respectively prioritising these areas as key elements of the marketing function.

     

    However, global CMOs are finding it difficult to achieve this vision with ‘Business Transformation’ and ‘Disruptive Innovation’ at the bottom of the list for the second year running in terms of functional priorities, and current capabilities beginning to lag behind future needs as short-term metrics dominate their focus.

     

    Within APAC, CMOs are beginning to lead a shift away from this trend, with China, Japan and Australia ranking Business Transformation within the top three priorities for the marketing function today, as well as over the next three years. CMOs in China and Japan also notably outperform global counterparts in their expectations for Disruptive Innovation to rise among marketers’ top 3 priorities in the next three years, at 61 per cent and 47 per cent respectively, well above the global average of 36 per cent.

     

    Marketing functions risk lagging the digital race as performance gaps emerge

     

    Across a spectrum of marketing capabilities, CMOs were asked what they believe to be important to future success, versus their current ability to execute.

     

    Said Takaki Hibino, APAC Executive Chairman, Dentsu Aegis Network:

    “Brands globally have invested heavily in digital but have yet to reap the rewards as short-term metrics rather than driving digital transformation continues to dominate the marketing function’s focus and priorities.

     

    In Asia Pacific however, CMOs are leading the curve with business transformation now firmly positioned as function’s top 3 priorities, and CMOs in the region being more likely to plan their marketing strategies over the long term. This creates a real opportunity for CMOs in this region to truly embed the digital transformation agenda and drive the future capabilities the region depends on for growth.”

     

    We hope India will be included in the next edition of the survey.

     

     

  • DAN Programmatic launches ‘DAN Explore for Programmatic’

    By A Correspondent

     

    DAN Programmatic has collaborated with Amnet, the network’s programmatic arm, to launch DAN Explore for Programmatic. It is an Artificial Intelligence-based insights engine for programmatic audience performance, which merges with their flagship insights engine – DAN Explore.

     

    Salil Shankar

    Commenting on the launch, Salil Shankar, Vice President – Amnet India said: “Despite the obvious benefits of the ecosystem, when it comes to programmatic advertising, the environment is mainly opaque. With the tech still being very much of a black-box, the lack of transparency still remains a major point of concern for publishers, brands and marketers. With its unique ability to provide more understanding to audience cohort performance, DAN Explore for Programmatic will be one step closer to our vision of making this ecosystem more transparent as well as providing us with the insight to sharpen our audience buys and set new performance benchmarks.”

     

    Added Gautam Mehra, CEO- DAN Programmatic & Chief Data Officer- South Asia, Dentsu Aegis Network: “Armed with the right algorithms, DAN Explore for Programmatic aims to become a translator in conversations by bringing trust between industry stakeholders in the programmatic space. With its unique access to data and proprietary logic frameworks, DAN Explore for Programmatic will help classify programmatic audiences accurately and reliably to analyse the performance of audience cohorts in line with marketing objectives based on thousands of real-time data points – forming a base for future planning and real time optimization of programmatic campaigns.”

     

     

  • Dentsu takes majority stake in Ugam

    By A Correspondent

     

    Dentsu Aegis Network has acquired a majority stake in India-based Ugam, a next-generation data and analytics company serving both business-to-business and business-to-consumer enterprises. Ugam will join Merkle, a leading data-driven, technology-enabled, global performance marketing agency and part of Dentsu Aegis Network. With more than 1,800 employees in India, the United States, and Australia, Ugam represents one of the largest transactions in Merkle’s history.

     

    The business will now become Ugam, a Merkle Company, led by Sunil Mirani, co-founder and chief executive officer, reporting to Craig Dempster, president, Merkle Americas. Reporting structures for the rest of the management team of Ugam will remain unchanged, as they and the rest of the senior leaders will play a key role in the growth plans of the company.

     

    “Ugam is vital to the execution of Merkle’s multi-year analytics strategy of creating a scaled on- and offshore shared analytics service across Dentsu Aegis Network.” said Craig Dempster, president, Merkle Americas. “With its experienced management team, highly-educated workforce, scale, and vertical market expertise, Ugam will bring high-end analytics capabilities, along with a broad spectrum of analytical decision support. Their focus on the U.S. market and Fortune 500 companies will create many synergies and strengthen our existing relationships, opening opportunities for each of our client portfolios.”

     

    Sunil Mirani

    Added Sunil Mirani, co-founder and chief executive officer, Ugam: “We have found the perfect partner in Merkle. We complement each other’s strengths, with Ugam bringing advanced analytics capabilities at scale, and Merkle bringing a diverse client base with a largely in-country presence. Most importantly, the cultural fit was evident from day one, and the effects will be immensely positive for all our stakeholders – customers, employees, and shareholders. This deal marks a significant milestone in Ugam’s journey, and I look forward to this new phase with renewed vigor.”

     

    Added Alex Yoder, executive vice president, analytics for Merkle: “The U.S. marketing and media analytics industry is growing increasingly competitive, diverse and global. With artificial intelligence and machine learning entering the mainstream, the range of services required to maintain and extend growth requires both complexity of services and efficiency of delivery. As the analytics business becomes increasingly commoditized, the pressure to expand capabilities into predictive and prescriptive methodologies simultaneously intensifies. Merkle’s majority stake in Ugam and its resulting enhanced scale and capabilities will be instrumental as we scale to effectively compete with top analytic consulting firms over the next three to five years.”

     

     

  • Dentsu launches third edition of CCS 2019

    By A Correspondent

     

    In its effort to mine consumer insights and deliver sharp intelligence, Dentsu Aegis Network has launched the third round of its proprietary consumer based system, widely known as CCS (Consumer Connection System).

     

    This edition, CCS 2019, will attempt to provide unique actionable insight into communication usage and engagement across 60+ bought, owned and earned digital, experiential and media channels.

     

    Kartik Iyer

    Speaking on the launch of CCS 2019, Kartik Iyer, President- Media Brands, Dentsu Aegis Network said: “It’s amazing what CCS has thrown up over the years. It has enabled us to understand consumers and predict trends well before the Industry. In fact, the results of the last round a couple of years ago already showed that we needed to plan across video screens which is why we set up the Video Stack practice for multiscreen planning for our clients in 2016. This round has already started throwing up surprises like the increasing Social media and newspaper readership for women which if looked closer definitely have a relationship. We are most excited with CCS’ latest round and I am sure that all of the DAN agencies and their clients will benefit hugely in keeping ahead of trends and connecting with their most valuable consumers.”

     

    Overall, CCS has a global sample size of over 400,000 across 52 markets, making it the world’s largest research of this nature. CCS is offered exclusively to DAN clients and is applied both internationally and locally to deliver enhanced communications strategy and planning, benefiting brands with improved targeting, precision and efficiencies.

     

  • DAN Programmatic launches predictive dashboard ‘Vision’

    By A Correspondent

     

    DAN Programmatic has launched ‘Vision’, a hyper-scaled machine-learning-based dashboard that provides reliable and high-quality forecasts on the performance of programmatic campaigns. It aims to empower agencies and clients to take more pre-emptive steps to maximize campaign performance.

     

    Shamsuddin Jasani

    Commenting on the launch, Shamsuddin Jasani, Exec Sponsor –  DAN Programmatic & Group MD, Isobar -South Asia said: “The biggest boon of the digitized media market is that it has given rise to a new resource – the data. This new resource is now actually enabling modern day marketers to make smarter decisions and provide justifications for certain market movements. ‘Vision’ is the first step in a journey of making the programmatic ecosystem a lot more known to us beyond the heavy duty algorithms that govern the space. It enables us to be more proactive in sharpening our programmatic performance by informing creative and placement strategies by revealing

     

    Gautam Mehra

    Added Gautam Mehra, CEO of DAN Programmatic & Chief Data Officer -South Asia, Dentsu Aegis Network: “The explosion of data, coupled with efficient compute and advanced tech advancements, has opened up the realm of marketing to all sorts of predictive analysis. The depth of data available virtually makes every single outcome capable of being modelled with a high degree of certainty. Through its advanced algorithms, ‘Vision’ enters a space of sifting through reams of data to unearth trends that serve as guidance, and in many cases a caution to where a campaign is likely headed. This, in turn, helps carve out a sufficient window for agencies and advertisers to react to upcoming trends and thus, capitalise on the knowledge for their gains.”

     

     

  • India adspend to grow 11.4% in 2019. DAN ups forecast

     

    By A Correspondent

     

    Dentsu Aegis Network’s latest advertising spend forecast, based on data from 59 markets, predicts global growth will reach +3.6% in 2019, following growth of 4.3% in 2018, taking total investment to US$609.9 billion. In Asia Pacific, there is a predicted +4.0% growth in 2019, following +5.3% in 2018, taking total investment to US$216 billion.

     

    Geographically, Asia Pacific is the leading contributor to the global increase of US$20.9 billion in 2019 compared to the previous year, contributing 39% of the global increase, closely followed by North America 34%. Comparatively, Western Europe is forecast to contribute 14% to new ad dollars with Latin America at 11% and Central and Eastern Europe at 3%.

     

    In Asia Pacific, forecasts have been revised downwards (-0.5%) from January following market softness at the beginning of the year particularly for TV, the lack of major events scheduled was also a contributory factor. China continues to be the leading contributor to Asia Pacific and global ad spend and will continue to grow in 2019 by +5.4% to reach RMB 671 billion, a surprisingly healthy and stable growth rate, which remains on track despite the headwinds from trade tensions with the U.S.

     

    The global forecast reflects softening growth across 9 of the top 13 advertising markets worldwide, with India and Brazil bucking the trend with accelerating growth in 2019. Some markets saw downward revisions from January 2019 forecasts including Italy and Russia with both markets seeing GDP slow alongside ad spend.

     

    Said Takaki Hibino, Executive Chairman, Dentsu Aegis Network Asia Pacific:  “Asia Pacific has long been the melting pot of digital and technology developments. Though we have been facing a tougher economic environment, our ad spend forecast has shown that digital connectivity in APAC remains at its peak and consumer adoption rates have leapfrogged. Our business is built for the digital economy and we’re at the forefront of this growth, working alongside our clients to provide integrated solutions and build long-term sustainable growth for their brands.

     

    Key market trends 

    :: Australia:2019 is expected to grow by 1.9% to AUD$16.6 billion, which is a modest increase in overall spend from 2018. Majority of the growth is expected to come from Digital and Video channels. Digital continues to drive advertising revenue growth and is expected to increase by 6.8% in 2019 representing roughly half of total media spend (54%). Online Video is a key driver for Digital spend and is expected to increase by 28.4% in 2019. Video is the golden child of digital with strong momentum making up a large proportion of general display. This positive trend is backed by publishers as brands continue to seek premium environments in which to showcase their offerings.

     

    :: China: thead market continues to be a leading contributor to global ad spend and will continue to grow in 2019 by +5.4% to reach RMB 671 billion but at a lower growth rate than the +7.0% growth forecast in the January 2019 report. Growth for the market in 2019 has been revised downwards due to higher than expected decline in TV spend at the start of the year. Digital is still the biggest driver of growth in total ad spend in China with the biggest share (63.6% in 2019) and growth rate. E-commerce is growing consistently and strongly, taking the biggest share within Digital. The decline of TV advertising (-6.8% in 2019) has affected the total market trend. Within TV, ad investments in CCTV and provincial satellite TV are still on an increasing trend, while ad investments in Provincial and Local TV channels have declined significantly.

     

    :: India: forecast double-digit 2019 growth of 11.4%to reach INR 696.9 billion (up from the 10.6% forecast in January and 10.8% growth in 2018) with the Cricket World Cup putting growth on the front foot. Lok Sabha Elections are also set to increase spend in 2019. Digital media spend is forecast to grow by 32.7% in 2019 to account for INR 144.1 billion, making up 21% share of total spend. Infrastructure has propelled the growth in digital consumption. TV continues to be the leading media in 2019 and will contribute 39% share of total spend. Despite digital growth, TV continues to be dominant as it enjoys unmatched share of audiences. With 40% allocation of advertising spends, TV is forecast to expand in 2019 by 9.5% to reach INR 271.4 billion.

     

    Global media trends 

    :: Digital continues to power ad spend growth and is forecast to grow 11.5% in 2019 to reach US$249.7 billion and 41.8% of global share. Growth is steady into 2020 putting digital’s share of ad spend at nearly 45% by the end of the year.

     

    :: Mobile is the fastest growing platform within digital and is forecast to grow 21.4% in 2019. Powering this growth is the increasing consumption of video on mobile – from Instagram Stories, TikTok and Snapchat to YouTube and VOD – with online video in general set to grow 20.5% in 2019.

     

    :: TV ad-spend is forecast to shrink slightly in 2019 (-0.1%) with a return to modest growth in 2020 of 0.6%. Into 2020 growth will be driven by more dynamic TV opportunities and innovation as the penetration of smart TVs continues.

     

    :: The decline of traditional print has accelerated from our January 2019 forecasts (Newspapers -7.7% and Magazines -7.4%) as digital continues to dominate.

     

    :: Out of Home sees continued growth and an upwards revision from January to 4.3% in 2019 to reach 6.3% share. Growth is driven by innovations in DOOH.

     

    Figure 1: Growth in global advertising spend 2018-20f

     

      Year on year % growth at current prices
      2018a 2019f 2020f
    GLOBAL 4.3 (4.1) 3.6 (3.8) 4.1 (4.3)
    NORTH AMERICA 3.3 (3.4) 3.2 (3.1) 3.7 (3.6)
    USA 3.4 (3.4) 3.1 (3.0) 3.6 (3.6)
    CANADA 2.7 (3.7) 5.3 (5.2) 5.7 (5.1)
    W. EUROPE 4.1 (3.4) 2.8 (3.2) 3.1 (3.3)
    UK 8.6 (6.5) 6.3 (6.1) 6.6 (7.1)
    GERMANY 0.2 (1.0) 0.4 (0.5) 0.5 (0.5)
    FRANCE 5.3 (3.6) 3.6 (3.1) 3.0 (2.5)
    ITALY 2.0 (1.6) -1.6 (0.8) 0.6 (1.6)
    SPAIN 2.1 (1.8) 0.5 (1.2) 0.4 (0.8)
    C&EE 8.6 (8.6) 4.9 (5.8) 5.6 (6.2)
    RUSSIA 12.3 (12.0) 4.5 (6.9) 5.8 (6.7)
    ASIA PACIFIC 5.3 (4.6) 4.0 (4.5) 4.9 (4.9)
    AUSTRALIA 6.6 (3.7) 1.9 (2.4) 3.2 (2.6)
    CHINA 7.7 (7.8) 5.4 (7.0) 6.9 (6.4)
    INDIA 10.8 (9.6) 11.4 (10.6) 12.2 (11.6)
    JAPAN 2.2 (0.2) 1.2 (0.6) 1.8 (2.4)
    LATIN AMERICA 7.9 (9.9) 9.1 (7.9) 6.1 (8.6)
    BRAZIL 7.1 (7.1) 8.8 (3.6) 4.5 (6.2)
      Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2019

     

    Figure 2: Share of global ad spend by media, 2018-20 (% y-o-y)

      2018a 2019f 2020f
    Television 34.9 (35.4) 33.6 (34.1) 32.4 (33.2)
    Newspapers 8.0 (8.0) 7.1 (7.1) 6.3 (6.3)
    Magazines 5.0 (5.0) 4.5 (4.5) 4.0 (4.1)
    Radio 6.2 (6.2) 6.1 (6.0) 5.9 (5.8)
    Cinema 0.6 (0.6) 0.6 (0.6) 0.6 (0.6)
    OOH 6.3 (6.3) 6.3 (6.3) 6.3 (6.2)
    Digital 39.0 (38.5) 41.8 (41.4) 44.5 (43.8)
      Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2019