Category: TV

By Shailesh Kapoor

 

We are a country of many channels. At last count, more than 400 channels have enabled themselves with watermarking that’s a pre-requisite for them to be measured and reported by BARC. About 250 of these have a viewership of at least 0.1 GRPs.

 

The top 10 channels contribute to 48% of the total TV viewership in the Hindi-speaking markets (HSM). Six Hindi GECs and four Hindi Movie Channels (HMCs) constitute this list. The Top 20 contribute 64% of the total TV viewership. Regional GECs and kids channels find a place in this extended list, along with Hindi GECs and HMCs.

 

The Top 30 contribute 75%, and the new genres to enter this list are Hindi News and rerun-based Hindi GECs like Star Utsav, Zee Anmol and Rishtey. The tail flattens out here onwards, with the Top 40 contributing 81% and the Top 50 contributing 86%. There is no past data to draw a trend here (BARC vs. TAM is a fallacious comparison), so it is difficult to conclude if the long tail is getting longer. But even as the big guns fight their fierce battles, it’s this long tail that is going to be of increasing interest to potential investors in the broadcasting sector.

 

Look beyond the Top 30 and you see variety in great measure. Regional channels feature prominently in this list, as do genres like sports, news, music and infotainment. However, there’s no ‘only-in-English’ channel in the Top 90, till the English Movie Channel (EMC) category makes an appearance.

 

There has always been considerable investor interest in the television business in India, over the last two decades at least. With the advent of digitisation and the (somewhat overrated) phenomenon of non-linear television, this interest is increasingly concentrated on the long tail. It is not to suggest that the GEC category has no need gaps available, but the sheer investment in a mainline GEC can make even the most risk-prone investor think twice.

 

Hence, the focus seems to be on differentiated ideas that can stand out in the long tail. A common problem, however, seems to be that many of these ideas have the potential of being a long tail champion, but the aspirations and funding requirements of one of the Top 20 players.

 

Like in the films business, there’s no such thing in TV as a good channel or a bad channel. Every channel is as good or as bad as the ROI it can generate for its investors. The long tail has higher chances of creating such high ROI propositions, but with channels that control budgets to suit the long tail potential.

 

Thinking regional becomes a smart choice in such a scenario. There are more need gaps in the regional spaces, and like-to-like content costs are 30-70% lower in regional vs. Hindi, depending on the market being targeted.

 

For every eight new channels launched in the long tail, only one breaks even in its first decade. As we mature as a television market, we will see more long tail channels. But we also hope to see more success stories.

 

By Shailesh Kapoor

 

The ratings provider may have changed, but the definition of the central programme performance measure remains the same. Called TVR % (TAM) earlier, and Rating % (BARC) now, it is a time-weighted measure of the % of universe that watched a programme, effectively connoting the “viewership” of the program.

 

In primitive days of measurement, TVR % of 25-30 was not uncommon, delivered by blockbuster films such as Hum Aapke Hain Koun. Through the decade of 2000, the best of daily fiction on Star Plus scored in the 13-20 range, led by the K triplet of Kyunkii, Kahaani and Kasautii.

 

With time, touching 10% became harder, as more channels meant higher fragmentation. An odd film premiere like Main Hoon Naa or 3 Idiots would get close, but even at its most masterfully manipulated high point, a fiction show (I speak of Hindi here, down South is a different story), would hit a glass ceiling at 7-8 TVR.

 

Over the last two years, the benchmark continues to reduce. No Hindi programme has crossed an average weekly rating of 4% over the last two weeks. For a huge film premiere, 7% is an excellent result, perhaps an equivalent of 10% not too long ago. Even big-ticket cricket doesn’t rate like old times anymore.

 

In my opinion, GECs have not spent enough time understanding this area over the last five years or so. Yes, there are more channels and the consumer has more to choose from. Much of the trend till 2011-12 could be explained on account of this fragmentation. Digitisation further fuelled fragmentation, acting as a level-playing field for smaller channels, which would lose out in the analogue environment because of poor placement.

 

But instead of looking at it as a trend, what if we just asked the question: Is it so impossibly difficult to create a programme (daily, weekly, whatever) that only 4% of Hindi-speaking India watches?

 

For every show that goes on-air, at least five, often more, are considered. That means that there are more than 150 daily fiction shows alone that enter a stage of serious consideration in Hindi GECs every year, not to speak of the weekend options.

 

A diverse set of producers, some of them channel employees in the past, churn out these concepts. The writer pool that is engaged to work on them is not too diverse though. It’s the same set of writers that freelance for multiple producers, sometimes working on 2-3 running shows, while working on pitches for another couple. The seamless movement of plot points from one show to the other is easy to catch for anyone who follows the category.

 

It seems, then, that we have caught ourselves in a seemingly vicious circle of the current output becoming the input for future output, and thus, both the current and the future looking remarkably alike. For a consumer, that means “nothing new”.

 

The Hindi GEC category has been steady at about 1,100 GRPs over the last two years. But no superhero shows have emerged in this period. Admittedly, there is no magic formula to churn out one. But the best bet will be to infuse fresh writing talent into the industry. It’s easier said than done, because a lack of understanding of the daily fiction audiences and its grammar can be genuine roadblocks, as seen in recent examples like Yudh and Everest respectively.

 

I’m convinced we’ll have a consistent 4+ TVR show sooner than later. I’m curious to see what it will be and how soon it will come our way.