Ranjona Banerji: The Morning After: Winds of change for some, for others ‘chamchagiri’

By Ranjona Banerji​

Philosophers, theologists, psychologists, anthropologists, archaeologists have all ruminated and pontificated for years on why and how humans believe in various or one deity. But I have another question for my journalist friends, and it has bothered me for years, far more than the God dilemma: why do you believe in exit polls?

The existence of one or many Gods is out of my ken at least because the stories, myths, beliefs cannot be scrutinised by whatever means we have at our disposal. But just on empirical evidence, prayer has a better returns policy than the money spent, in India at least, on exit polls. Heck, so does the belief in alien abduction. The margin of error is so immense that the neighbourhood parrot has a better chance of getting this forecast correct. If you can claim victory with give or take 10, 20, 30 seats, well then, we all can.

So where does this faith come from? Friends in the exit poll business need a leg up? Commissioning a poll cheaper than sending reporters to the ground? Incalculable optimism that one day they will get it right? I will grant you that pompously named “psephologists” are somewhat better than exit pollsters if only because their margin of error is a tad less extreme. But there too… never mind.

As the results for the Gujarat and Himachal elections trickled in on Monday December 18, I did not watch television news. Instead, as usual, I went to the Election Commission website and tracked leads and results there. Even until late on Monday evening, I saw on Twitter that news channels had made up their own figures while the EC had stuck to BJP 99 and Congress 77. Which is where the results remain this morning. Ah, well.

This morning I see that Times Now has called 99 seats to “80” a “saffron wave resonates in Gujarat”, which should earn them several lollipops from the Central government, though am not sure of the 80. NDTV says “BJP wins Gujarat but misses century, sweeps Himachal”. (That’s 44 to 21 and a defeat of the incumbent Congress government.) CNN News 18 says, “Narendra Modi still rules polling booths but Rahul Gandhi’s challenge is now for real.” I honestly did try to find out what Republic TV’s website had to say but all I got were ads, so I got bored after Mercedes something-something. NewsX also said Congress “80” in Gujarat but the main headlines were about the prime minister going to Lakshwadeep to inspect cyclone damage. Of course, such a visit could not have been expected while campaigning was on, although cyclone Ockhi struck South India on November 29.

Interestingly, India Today TV’s website asked visitors to watch live coverage of the results, so I suspect someone has not woken up yet at 10.09 am as I write this.

The Hindu’s main headline on its website is “Sixth straight win in PM’s home state.” The Indian Express says, “Modi’s December Spring”. The Times of India puts Congress at 79 and its headlines say. “Why BJP got more votes but fewer seats” and “Congress puts up its best show since 1985”. The Hindustan Times decided to be edgier than the rest (surprise, surprise) with: “Make no mistake, the contest in PM’s home state was really close” and “In close defeat for Congress, a win for Rahul Gandhi”. The Telegraph says, “BJP wins Gujarat and Himachal but…”. Deccan Chronicle has, “BJP wins Gujarat for sixth time, but tally down by 16” and “Rahul Gandhi loses Pappu tag, emerges 2019 challenger for Modi”.

This is just a sampling of the morning’s websites. For some in the media, winds of change, for others chamchagiri.

The big story – and some have commented on that as well – is the challenge to the BJP from three young men in Gujarat: Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani. They are to be watched closely in the future. Also, the BJP’s win in Himachal was expected but the loss of its chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal, father of BJP MP Anurag Thakur, will be considered. Plus, the change in vote share.

How many media houses will, as times goes by, look on the Gujarat results as a BJP “sweep” and how many as a “Congress challenge”. Some have become so used to being “His Master’s Voice” that they have forgotten all their journalism. But if governments change, as they do, will they shift masters or remain loyal?

That’s my “burning question” of the day!