Tag: This Year Next Year

10.2% AdEx growth in 2024
GroupM India released its annual This Year Next Year (TYNY) report in Mumbai on Tuesdays. The overall ad revenue is expected to reach Rs 155,386 crore in 2024, with an incremental Rs 14,423 crores compared to 2023. This is a growth of 10.2 year-on-year.

Digital at 13% growth is driving overall ad revenue growth in 2024, as per the report. It will take 57% share of AdEx pie in the year. All other media combined to grow at 6.8% in the year. Of the 14,423cr of incremental ad revenue in 2024, 70% to go to digital.

Within digital, retail media driving growth; CAGR of 41% in 2019-24F. Digital extensions of TV estimated at INR 5,750cr in 2024. Auto, realty, retail, SME estimated to drive growth in 2024

Prasanth Kumar

Said Prasanth Kumar, CEO, GroupM South Asia: “Despite facing macroeconomic challenges, we remain optimistic about the industry. At 10.2%, India will be the fastest growing top market. 2024 will also see an upside from the spends leading to the General Elections. Digital particularly retail media and digital extensions of TV are expected to drive the growth. SME continues to fuel the growth. Linear TV is at a point of inflection and needs to be enabled with rapid deployment of technology to stay relevant.”

Ashwin Padmanabhan

Added Ashwin Padmanabhan, President – Investments, Trading, and Partnerships, GroupM – India: “The advertising landscape is evolving with the fragmentation of search, rapid rise of influencer marketing and retail media. Reflecting this, at INR 88,502 crores of the overall Rs 155,386 crore, digital will contribute to 57% of all ad revenue. Within digital ad revenue, search contributes 22%, retail media 18% and the rest 60%. Sectors like Auto, Realty and Offline Retail are expected to power the overall advertising growth.”

Parveen Sheik

Said Parveen Sheik, Head of Business Intelligence, GroupM India: “Global advertising presents a steady picture: a projected 5.3% global growth in ad revenue for 2024, reaching $936 billion, with digital leading the charge at a commanding 79% share of all ad revenue. India continues to be ranked 8^thglobally and its ad revenue growth among its peers is a testament to its potential and resilience. Adaptability is key to navigating an evolving advertising landscape amidst inflation and geopolitical tensions.”

Parthasarathy Mandayam

Added Parthasarathy Mandayam (Maps), Chief Strategy Officer – GroupM South Asia, “Zero Party Data will come to the fore, providing insights on attitudes, behaviour, and product consumption. The availability of granular data will lead to micromarketing strategies, be it in market prioritisation, ultra-niche consumer segments and micro influencers. Advances in AI will also transform measurement, messaging, and media optimisation.”

Priti Murthy

Said Priti Murthy, President -GroupM Nexus, “In 2024, brands will shift their focus to consumer experience through performance marketing, integrating brand activities and emotions. Search marketing will become more diverse due to growing complexity and skillsets. Attention planning will impact growth narratives and ROI. Technology will aid hyperlocal marketing, but modern retail still has room for digital growth.”

The GroupM TYNY report also unveiled several evolving trends for 2024.

Key trends include:
- Increasing influence of gen-alpha will drive distinctive marketing strategies
- Attention Planning – customising insights for actionability
- 21% of television homes to be addressable in 2024
- Sports to focus on immersive experience journeys
- Brand marketing becomes more accountable on performance, breaking silos
- Step-up on search
- Ecommerce drives deeper into organisations
- India’s general and modern trade getting digitised leading to rise of omnichannel commerce
- Rapid developments in AI will transform media, messaging, and measurement
- AI and technology dominate the content landscape and creator economy
- Importance of niche consumer segments will power the growth of micromarketing
- With consent becoming critical, zero party data will empower various areas of marketing
February 14, 2024
… though some of the findings of GroupM's TYNY & Madison's PMAR studies are very different

A Tale of Two Reports

By Indrani Sen

It is time to celebrate as the TYNY (This Year Next Year) 2023 report released by GroupM last week declared that the total value of Indian AdEx in 2022 has crossed the 100K crore mark touching INR 1,09,636 crore and in 2023 is estimated to grow at a healthy rate of 15.5% over 2022 towards another milestone of 150K crore (predicted as INR 146450 crore in 2023). Digital AdEx with an estimated 30% growth rate is expected to power the overall growth. India continues to be the fastest growing advertising market and as per the TYNY report has moved up from 9^th position to the 8^th position among the Top 10 countries with a share of 2% of the global adspend.

As per the tradition set up over the last few years, the PMAR (Pitch Madison Advertising Report) 2023 was also released last week with a prediction that Indian AdEx will cross 100k crore mark in 2023 (predicted as INR 104230 crore) with a growth rate of 16% over 2022. Digital AdEX with an estimated 25% growth rate provide momentum to the growth.

Both the TYNY and PMAR have been predicting in the same line over last few years with the gap between their estimates of the size of Indian AD Industry becoming wider year on year. By 2023 the size of the gap in the two estimates will be 40% of the total Indian ADEX size estimated by PMAR and by 2025 the size of the gap may become 50% of the Indian ADEX estimated by PMAR!! Globally is quite common to have difference in the estimates of the AD Industry size / AdEX estimated by different organisations, but if the difference becomes huge then it causes serious concern.

Six years back, I wrote here an article comparing the estimates of TYNY 2017 and PMA 2017 https://www.mxmindia.com/2017/02/what-is-the-real-size-of-indian-ad-industry/. In that year, the estimates for Digital AdEx by the two agencies were almost the same, INR 7000+ crore in 2016 and INR 9000+ crore in 2017. However, the TV AdEx estimated by TYNY was considerably higher than the TV AdEx estimated by PMAO and hence the total Ad Industry expenditure estimated by TYNY was around INR 6000 crores higher than the that of PMAO.

It is interesting to note that over the last six years, Digital AdEx has increased at a much higher rate in the TYNY reports than in the PMAR reports. In 2022, the Digital AdEx INR 68,642 crore reported by TYNY was double the estimate INR 34,405 crore shown by PMAR. AS per the TYNY report, Digital ADEX now has more than 50% share of the total AdEx, while in the PMAR report total traditional media is still enjoying around 60% share of the total AdEx as shown in the table below.

The various industry websites including www.mxmindia.com and financial/ business publications have already reported on the findings of the two reports. Digital did not suffer during the three waves of Covid-19, among the traditional media TV was the first to recover its pre pandemic revenue, outdoor recovered in 2022, print, radio and cinema are expected to recover in 2023. On the whole. 2022 was a good year for Indian Advertising and the immediate future looks bright.

In spite of the widening rift between the TYNY and PMAR estimates, their leaders agree on the future directions. Prasanth Kumar, South Asia CEO, GroupM has said “As technology redefines interactions between consumers, brands and businesses the ad industry must navigate thru this changing environment.” Sam Balsara, Chairman and Managing Director, Madison World has advised the advertisers “to take advantage of the evolved digital infrastructure for distribution and advertising to prepare for the future growth and to invest in building their own D2C channels.” Only if the two agencies could stop the widening rift between the two reports, we would be in a happier situation.

Indrani Sen is a veteran industryperson and educator. This is a new season of her Monday column on MxMIndia. Her views here are personal.

February 20, 2023
Digital media has gained its own momentum of growth in India, writes Indrani Sen reviewing the GroupM TYNY 2020 report

A Roller Coaster Ride of Adspends

By Indrani Sen

It appears from GroupM’s This Year Next Year (TYNY) 2020 report that the Indian ad Industry is on a roller coaster ride in spite of the slowdown in certain sectors of the manufacturing industry and hits and misses in agriculture during 2019. Prasanth Kumar, CEO – Group M South Asia expects sustained and stable investment across the media in India in 2020.

GroupM predicted in TYNY 2019 that the World AdEx will grow by 3.67% from 2018 to 2019 and the Indian AdEx will grow by 14%, higher than the CAGR growth of the previous four years. In TYNY released last week, GroupM has estimated that world AdEx grew by 3.7% from 2018 to 2019, but Indian AdEx grew by only 9% against the earlier estimated growth of 14%. However, there was no comment on the drop of growth rate in the press release issued by Group M.

I initially thought that probably the drop in the growth rate of adspend was due to the slowdown in the industry, but a closer look at TYNY2019 and TYNY2020 statistics showed that upward revision of the estimate of the total adspend in India in 2018 led to lowering of the growth rate from 14% to 9%. A comparison of the two reports is shown in the following table.

Indian Adspend (INR crore)

It is interesting to note that the forecast for 2018 for Digital as shown in TYNY2019 was increased by 40% in actual adspends of 2018 shown in TYNY 2020. Estimate for Print was also increased marginally while all other estimates remained the same. These changes in Digital and Print adspends resulted in an overall increase of total ad spend from 70,602 crore to 75,956 crore in 2018. GroupM should have added an explanatory note in their press release to warn the users of TYNY about these changes in their estimates as reflected in TYNY 2019 and TYNY 2020.

As per TYNY 2019, India was 10th largest market in adspends in the world, the 3rd highest contributor to incremental global ad spends and the fastest growing major ad market in the world. In TYNY 2020, India continues to be the 3rd highest contributor to incremental global adspends and the fastest growing major ad market in the world and has come up to 8th position in the list of largest markets by ad spends by beating Canada and Australia. In 2020, adspends in India is predicted to grow by 10.9% against a global growth of 5.1% in adspends.

According to Kumar, Digital would garner 65% of incremental ad spend in India in 2020. Tushar Vyas, President Growth and Transformation – GroupM South Asia further commented: “There are multiple advancements happening in technology which is transforming digital advertising and other mediums. India being a diverse country, digital will keep growing, especially with the rise of content platforms and its availability in multiple languages powered by the growth of 3Vs (video, voice and vernacular)”.

In conclusion, I agree that Digital media has gained its own momentum of growth in India and most advertisers do not want to miss out on the opportunities offered by the new media. Slowdown in certain sectors of manufacturing industry is unlikely to affect the investment in digital advertising in particular which would be the engine of growth in ad spends in India in 2020 as predicted by TYNY 2020.

February 10, 2020