MxMIndia

Tag: Ray Kurzweil

  • Somewhere early in the development of AI, the focus will shift to Strong Augmented Intelligence, writes Ashoke Agarrwal

    The Future is Augmented not Artificial

     

     

    By Ashoke Agarrwal

     

    Ashoke AgarrwalIt is conventional today to blame many of modern society’s ills on social media and its tendency to nurture and amplify echo chambers. Echo chambers are fertile grounds for bigots and cranks for all hues to gather and indoctrinate the impressionable and idle among us.

     

    The more technologically sophisticated among the commentariat identify the algorithms that social media companies employ to be at the core of the echo chamber phenomenon. Social media platforms design these algorithms to maximise the time an individual spends with them and thus maximise advertising revenue. To many, these algorithms are simple forms of Artificial Intelligence (AI) – a relentless machine that, one day in the near future, will control aspects of life, robbing the ordinary individual of many degrees of freedom.

     

    To my mind, the debate and apprehension over AI are overblown and misplaced. A crucial input into the algorithms that bring about social media’s echo chambers is the interaction of the individual with the content presented to him. The algorithms respond to the time he spends on a particular piece of content and the reaction button he presses (Facebook currently has six options – Like, Love, Haha, Wow, Sad and Angry). In that sense, social media platforms’ algorithms are a form of Augmented Intelligence (AuI) – albeit what I call Weak Augmented Intelligence (WAuI).

     

    A strategic shift from WAuM to Strong Augmented Intelligence (SAuI), whether voluntary or forced through regulation, can address the ills of social media. While WAuI implies near-involuntary participation by the human in the human-machine interaction, SAuI requires the human component to be conscious and informed. Imagine a social media platform genuinely sharing and seeking feedback. For example, say Facebook shares with its users at periodic intervals the user’s profile built by its algorithm and allows them to input suggestions. Furthermore, imagine Facebook periodically seeking their personal growth goals from its users and making these a part of the algorithm’s input. That would be the SAuI system, and I contend that, sooner or later, persuaded either by a maverick competitor or by regulators, the social media world would move to SAuI.

     

    I also contend that SAuI will be the dominant form of AI across domains over the next few decades.

     

    Take the example of AI applications in the daily lives of people that have been around for some time now – recommendation engines on e-commerce and streaming platforms and chatbots in the customer service arena. A white paper in a recent issue of the Journal of Marketing titled “Artificial Intelligence in Utilitarian vs Hedonic Contexts: The “Word-of- Machine” Effect” by Chiara Longoni and Luca Cian provides some interesting insights. People generally vary with inputs and advice from those they perceive as “Word of Machine” – inputs coming from AI with little or no human inputs. They are a little less vary when the “Word of Machine” is about a product or issue with well-defined rational dimensions at play – that is, they are “utilitarian” in nature. However, when the product or issue has emotional dimensions at play – that is, they are “hedonistic” at heart, the scepticism against “Word of Machines” is high. Some proponents of AI believe that as Natural Language Processing (NLP) engines cross the Turing threshold, pure AI-driven recommendation engines and chatbots will get wider acceptance and usage. The Turing threshold, to be clear, is when Natural Language Processing (NLP) based AI becomes so sophisticated that a human at the other end of a conversation cannot make out that it is a computer. They cite the emergence of Google’s LaMDA chatbot as that end is neigh. I think advanced AI technology like LaMDA can improve and be more valuable if it employs SAuI instead of pure AI. While the quest driving pure AI and GI pushes the boundaries, it is by incorporating SAuI that tools based on these advanced technologies can increase utility and find broad societal acceptance.

     

    A review paper titled “Artificial Intelligence and Management: The Automation-Augmentation Paradox” by Sebastian Raisch and Sebastian Krakowski for the Academy of Management Review validated this insight in business and management.

     

    As for the broader fields of arts and sciences and the broader human quest for knowledge, let us consider the predictions of Ray Kurzweil, the world’s leading authority on artificial intelligence and pre-eminent forecaster. In his 1999 book, “The Age of Spiritual Machines”, Mr Kurzweil made pithy milestone-type predictions for the next 100 years. Mr Kurzweil”s forecast for 2099 is “There is no longer any clear distinction between humans and computers. Most conscious entities do not have a permanent physical presence…the goal of education, and of intelligent beings, is discovering new knowledge to learn…Life expectancy is no longer a viable term in relation to intelligent beings.”

     

    That is a breathtaking and bold prediction, but Mr Kurzweil is taken seriously in most quarters because his forecasts for 2009 and 2019 have, by and large, come true, and the one he made for 2029 looks to be heading that way.

     

    In the context of pure AI and SAuI debate, it is essential to take note of two key phrases in Mr Kurzwell’s 2009 prediction – “no longer a clear distinction between human and computers” and “the goal of education and intelligent beings is discovering new knowledge and learn..”.

     

    The culmination of AI is a symbiosis of humans and computers, and the ultimate human goal is innovation and creativity. It, therefore, stands to reason to accept that somewhere early in the development of AI, the focus will shift from pure AI to what I term Strong Augmented Intelligence (SAuI). SAuI will be a jugalbandi between the extraordinary powers of computers married to the essential human quest for knowledge and creativity.

     

    PS: I have explored these themes in my earlier MxMIndia columns – two of them being:

    “The Coming Post Digital Age”, published on Jan 6, 2022,

    and “From Machine Learning to Machine Creativity”, published on Jan 20, 2022

     

  • As Metaverse technology matures, there will be a slew of Metaverses competing for market share, writes Ashoke Agarrwal

    From e-commerce to g-commerce in the Metaverse

    The Metaverse Gallery in Second Life. Picture by Dean Terry (Creative Commons Licence)

     

     

    By Ashoke Agarrwal

     

    Ashoke Agarrwal

    Technology forecasting has always fascinated me. I am an avid follower of the modern gurus of technology forecasting – Ray Kurzweil and Amy Webb, who focus on the near future. In addition, I lapped up Isaac Asimov, Arthur C Clarke and Frank Herbert’s nuanced takes on the distant future.

     

    Lately, AI’s impact on the world at large and, in particular, in the areas of marketing and communication has fascinated me.

     

    My blog (hardraincafe. wordpress.com) stands testimony, with more than half of the posts dedicated to the subject over the past three years.

     

    I was delighted when literary giants like Kazuo Ishiguro with “Klara and The Sun” and Ian Mcewan with “Machines Like Us” wove brilliant, though somewhat disquieting, narratives around the emergence of sentient AI in day-to-day life.

     

    A couple of months ago, another technology area caught my attention – the Metaverse. Metaverse is a word coined by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel “Snow Crash”. Metaverses are rich virtual worlds driven by VR, AR and AI, in which a person as an avatar can spend hours doing all that she does in the real world – working, playing, socializing, travelling and shopping.

     

    “Second Life”, an online multimedia platform where one enters as an avatar, is a first-generation Multiverse. However, many purists dismiss it as a later generation multiplayer, multimedia game.

     

    Facebook’s entry into the area portends the possible emergence of Metaverse as a technology platform whose impact on the future can be immense.

     

    As a result, Metaverse has become a part of my musing on the future of commerce, marketing, and communication.

     

    Technology forecasting is the disciple of looking for nodes where socio-cultural, economic and technological trends converge.

     

    The Metaverse phenomenon is likely to take a decade or more to mature. Metaverses can come in many flavours. For example, some Metaverses can give their inhabitants the power to fly! Or even suspend the laws of physics as we know them! Others could locate themselves on a Mars-like planet or the universe as imagined by Star Trek! And many others could be replicas of the natural world with a twist or two mixed in.

     

    The upshot is that as Metaverse technology matures, there will be a slew of Metaverses competing for market share.

     

    And like any other brand, they will compete based on consumer insight.

     

    In the first phase, the bulk of consumers of Metaverses will come from today’s tweens and teens.

     

    Research across the world among today’s teens and tweens has indicated that a critical psychological trait of this segment is an inclination to experiment and explore a variety of identities. This need drives them to be open to the world, curious and positive of various modes and mores of sexual orientation, race and ethnicity.

     

    The Generation Z need to explore various identities is likely to be great news for the gaming industry.

     

    In his book, “Games. Agency As Art” C, Thi Nguyen, a professor of philosophy, offers a deep insight into the role of games in human life. He posits that playing games are a motivational inversion of life. In ordinary practical life, we usually take the means for the sake of the ends. But in games, we take up an end for the sake of the means.

     

    According to Nguyen, the characteristics of a game are:

    :: It tells us to take up a particular goal

    :: It designates abilities with which we can strive for achieving this goal

    :: It finally packages all that up with a set of obstacles crafted to fit these goals and abilities.

     

    In sum, we play games to sculpt an alternate form of “agency” – that is, identity! Thus games answer a critical need of today’s tweens and teens, provided they are inventive and varied enough to offer an array of widely different identities in the natural world and in the Metaverses to come.

     

    Further, the need for experimentation with identity also manifests itself in the consumption habits of Generation Z. They range widely in what they consume and actively seek new experiences while they shop. Consequently, they despise the sameness of the big-box shopping experience, whether offline or online.

     

    Metaverses, whatever their form, will all need to drive the consumption of goods and services for them to become viable businesses. Some of these goods and services will be unique to a given Metaverse. Beyond this, they will need to allow, within the Metaverse, the buying of brands of products and services from the real world.

     

    I forecast that every Metaverse will compete to provide a shopping experience that is unique to it and caters uniquely to the needs of its consumers. A happy synergy of the shopping and gaming experience will drive this uniqueness. In the Metaverse, world shopping will become a game that allows the consumer to take on a set of abilities and thus a new identity to purchase a particular brand of product or service. This identity (or agency) will be a layer atop the avatar’s identity the consumer has adapted within the Metaverse. The obstacles built into the game’s design will adhere to the overall environment of the Metaverse.

     

    I like to think of this version as g-commerce as in gamed-commerce. It will be a generational leap from the era of e-commerce and will be a crucial feature of Metaverses.

     

    The game’s sponsor could be a product or service category whereby the player decides among a set of participating brands. It could also be exclusive to a brand where the end is to achieve the best possible price.

     

    The creative possibilities are immense, and to guess them now would be akin to guessing the forms advertising has taken in the 21st century based on what it was, say, in the age of radio.

     

    Just think of the possibilities, say with the product category of sports shoes. Could it be a game in a low-gravity Mars-like Metaverse where our avatar can split into three and race a 10 km race wearing three competing brands? Or could it be a brand-sponsored event where our avatar races with other avatars and gets a discount commensurate with his achievement?

     

    In the age of g-commerce, Amazon will need to ramp up its inventiveness manifold if it wants to continue with its growing dominance of consumer commerce. So perhaps it should look to leverage its market value today to buy up gaming companies and drop its current austere Bania avatar for a freewheeling creative culture.