GroupM has released the 2024 Global Midyear Forecast for its annual This Year Next Year forecast and study. As per the study, advertising revenues (spends) in 2024 will touch $18.5 billion in India, which points to a 9.5% growth in the year. The forecast for 2024 is 8.7%. It may be recalled when GroupM had released its TYNY numbers in February this year (2024), the forecast growth for 2024 was 10.2%.
“We estimate that global advertising revenue will grow 7.8% in 2024 to $989.8 billion. The industry will surpass one trillion in revenue in 2025, increasing 6.8% to $1.1 trillion, one year earlier than we forecast in December of 2023. We have also revised estimates for the US, which we now expect to reach $365.9 billion in ad revenue, up 5.8% over 2023’s $345.9 billion (excluding the impact of political advertising in both years). The great economic engines of the U.S. and China, which together make up 57.1% of global ad revenue, are clearly the largest drivers of growth, adding $44.5 billion to their totals in 2024 (excluding U.S. political spending) — nearly 1.5 times the cumulative $27.4 billion in incremental revenue for all other markets combined. They are also home to 22 of the top 25 global media sellers and account for more than 40% of global GDP.
Indis is third highest in growth rates as per the GroupM data. China is at 14% growth in 2024 and Brazil is at 11.3%. In 2025, China growth is estimated to be 10.8% while Brazil will top the list at 12.4%. In absolute terms, China ad revenues for 2024 is 199.4 bn and Brazil stands at 21.3 bn. All figures are in US dollars.
The GroupM TYNY 2024 Global Midyear Forecast also adds: “The marketing ecosystem over the next few years will face potential impacts from governments and regulatory bodies across the world — impacts that have the potential to upend forecasts and alter even the most sound projections. On top of that, such projections can be skewed by two major players, China and the U.S. Their governments and their major companies have the power to shape vast aspects of the global economy.
“Artificial Intelligence also has the potential to reshape the industry — as do regulations put in place to guide (or control) its growth. Those regulations, of course, depend on politicians, which in turn are determined by upcoming election cycles.
“Despite some reactionary moves toward protectionism from some of those politicians, we can see the power and enduring appeal of shared experiences brought by globalisation, whether it be a Korean series rocketing to the top of the Netflix charts, or Rema bringing Afrobeats to Spotify’s top songs list. You can see it, too, in increasingly global fan bases for sports.
“With increased globalisation – of financial systems, commerce, and media – can come a level of resilience as interconnected systems such as coral reefs tend to be very adept at recovering from multitudinous small shocks. Innovation, the exchange of ideas, and a shared goal to make the advertising industry work better for everyone will help ensure a bright future.