By Our Staff
Global advertising expenditure will grow 11.2% in 2021, driven by exceptional demand for performance-led ecommerce advertising and brand advertising on online video, according to Zenith’s latest ‘Advertising Expenditure Forecasts’ report. Advertising expenditure will total US$669 billion this year, US$40 billion more than was spent before the pandemic in 2019.
Growth in advertising expenditure is expected to remain robust in the medium term, with 6.9% growth forecast for 2022 and 5.6% for 2023.
The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the structural shift in the economy from bricks-and-mortar sales to ecommerce, driving more consumers than ever to research and complete purchases online. Brands have responded by forming partnerships with retailers and creating new direct-to-consumer operations, using performance-driven advertising – primarily in social media and paid search – to lead consumers down the path to purchase. Zenith forecasts that social media advertising will expand by 25% this year to reach US$137 billion, overtaking paid search in scale for the first time. Paid search will expand by 19% to reach US$135 billion.
Much of this is new money to the ad market, coming from small businesses that have had to pivot rapidly to ecommerce to survive lockdowns, and from budgets that brands would previously have allocated to retailers to secure physical shelf-space, which they are now spending on display and search ads on retailer websites. The shift to ecommerce will slow down as coronavirus restrictions lift and economies open up again, but won’t go into reverse. Zenith expects ecommerce to continue to pull in incremental revenues to the ad market, driving 13% growth in social media and 12% growth in search in 2022.
Audiences continue to migrate online, and online video viewing is growing rapidly, even as traditional television ratings shrink again after a one-off spike when lockdowns began in 2020. Advertisers value online video as a means of maintaining reach while television declines, but it’s an effective form of brand communication in its own right. Demand is strong, although the popularity of subscription-funded video-on-demand has helped limit the supply of high-quality online video available to advertisers. Zenith predicts that online video advertising will be the fastest-growing digital channel in 2021, rising by 26% to reach US$63 billion. Specific numbers for India have not been given by Zenith in this forecast.
Said Benoit Cacheux, Global Chief Digital Officer at Zenith: “The online video landscape continues to transform, fuelled by the growth of streaming services and connected TVs. Its continued evolution requires a radical rethink of how to build the optimal screen-neutral reach model. The ingestion of new data sources into TV planning also creates further opportunities to further sync TV and video planning.”
Social media and online video have eclipsed traditional static display, which is forecast to shrink by 15% this year, while online classified grows by just 4%. Overall, Zenith expects digital advertising to grow by 19% in 2021, and increase its share of total adspend to 58%, up from 48% in 2019 and 54% in 2020.
Most other media are enjoying growth this year, as spending rebounds from the 16% drop in traditional media adspend in 2020. Cinema and out-of-home were the worst affected by Covid-related restrictions, shrinking by 72% and 28% respectively, and will enjoy the fastest recovery in 2021, with respective growth rates of 116% and 16%. Radio advertising, which shrank by 22% in 2020, is forecast to grow by 4% in 2021, while television fell 8% in 2020 and is forecast to grow 1% in 2021. Print will continue its long decline, now in its 14th consecutive year, with an 8% drop in adspend in 2021. In 2023 adspend in all these media will still be below 2019 levels, though cinema and out-of-home will have made up almost all of their lost ground.
Limited supply and rising demand are stoking media inflation
This year’s rapid recovery in adspend, coupled with the continued migration of audiences from traditional to digital channels, is fuelling substantial increases in media prices, particularly in television. The cost of television advertising is up 5% this year on average, though the variance between markets and audiences is wide. Television spend is up by 1%, so the volume of audiences reached globally is shrinking. Digital media growth, in contrast, is mainly driven by rising audiences and more extensive monetisation, with online video inflation averaging 7%, and social media roughly flat, compared to their 26% and 25% respective adspend growth rates.
US to add nearly half of all new ad dollars
All regions will enjoy robust adspend growth in 2021, ranging from 9% in Asia Pacific to 15% in the Middle East and North Africa, which is recovering from the steepest decline in 2020, of 21%. The strongest underlying growth since 2019 is taking place in North America, which is forecast to grow by 13% this year despite shrinking by only 1% last year. Growth in North America is being driven by the very rapid pace of digital transformation in its industries, as well as strong investment in connected TV and advertising-funded video-on-demand.
The US will be by far the largest contributor to global growth in 2021, accounting for 46% of the US$67 billion added to the global ad market this year, followed by China with 11%, and Japan and the UK with 6% each.
“After a very tough year last year, the ad market is enjoying rapid and broad-based recovery, and will end this year well above the level it achieved in 2019,” added Jonathan Barnard, Head of Forecasting at Zenith. “Digital advertising is becoming a more effective tool for brand growth as media and commerce continue to move online, attracting greater investment from large brands and small businesses alike.”
Most of the long-term planets, with respect to the sign of Sagittarius, will remain scattered for a greater part of the year 2012. This indicates that, akin to the planets, your interests too will be scattered, even confused, indicates Ganesha. Remaining centred and concentrating on your main goals could be a task! The good thing is that your energy levels will be at an all-time high and barring a few seasonal illnesses, you will enjoy good health throughout the year. Your mind and heart may gravitate towards spiritualism like never before, more so since your family life may have been disturbed or vacuous. This shift, thanks to Neptune, may alter many of your previously held beliefs and attitudes. It may make you more sensitive and compassionate towards your family. Single archers may be soon changing their relationship status to ‘committed’. On the work front, you’ll excel, and may see a surge in your creativity. Job opportunities may arise from nowhere, hints Ganesha. Although financially, you are safe, you’ll need to manage your expenditure.
You will practically heave a sigh of relief as the year 2011 wraps up, says Ganesha. The year 2012 will be all about changes – for good! Your personal, social, financial and spiritual life is likely to undergo a transition. The storms of the past may not be over, but they definitely will abate. It’s time for re-evaluations and second chances, and that includes a relationship that you may have thought as irreparable. Ups and downs in your personal and professional realms are possible, but aren’t they for everyone, exclaims Ganesha! Health will be fine, but there will be burdens, many of which would be self-invited. Stress and tension may be the rightful results of all the over-work! Look to de-stress using relaxation therapies. You may also plan to refurbish your home, which will help you take your mind off for some time. Unexpected expenses are likely to mount. And your love life may not improve dramatically, but it will, in its due course. For now, just hang on, and turn to divine help and spirituality, for a better tomorrow, says Ganesha!
Energetic and enthusiastic, you begin the year on a positive note. Although your health may still continue to be your biggest concern, expect your energy and determination levels to go up. You have always enjoyed your work, and shall do so even more in 2012. And, this gets better by mid-October! You will excel in your work, and will reap rich rewards. Switching jobs for better prospects, relocation and buying a new home is on the cards, too. You may spend a fortune doing up your new home and buying the latest gadgets. But be careful about your finances, as your income is likely to fluctuate. On the relationship front, couples will enjoy marital bliss, while singles have romantic dates and dinners lined-up. All in all a rewarding year for goats is in store, assures Ganesha. Yet, if you are still feeling empty and confused, remember that emotional disharmony is the main reason why prayers are not answered. If you don’t seem to be deriving any benefit from your spiritual practices, the fault is not with the Divine, but maybe is within you, points Ganesha. So, get up and get hold of your life!
Unlike your usual self, you will be filled with a desire to express yourself in the year 2012. Your confidence will improve, and you will look to broaden your vistas. And, about time too, says Ganesha! The results of this change in your outlook and attitude will be very visible – your social esteem will improve. A spiritual way of life has always enchanted you, and it will be the same now too! Yet, practicality is the call of the day. Your relationships and friendships may have been tested in the last few months. This year, you will need to come to terms with it all, and being realistic will come in handy, indicates Ganesha. Your financial situation may be swinging wildly in 2012. Although the year may have a fair share of challenges, you’ll handle it gracefully You may also be looking forward to occasions and celebrations to bring your family members closer. Bumping into a ‘special one’ at such an event is also a possibility. On the career front, this is a year full of possibilities. Health-wise the year looks benign, yet be careful of seemingly little health troubles.
The trends of last year continue this year for Scorpio, but with additional focus and augmented aspirations. Professional demands take up much of your time, and rightfully so, as everything else looks quite sorted. Although on the financial front, things remain largely unchanged, there are chances of profitable partnerships or lucrative ventures. Change is the keyword, even at work. Socialising, communications, information technology, spirituality and intellectual activities will take up your time and interest. Attending parties and rubbing shoulders with the high and mighty may become a part of your routine this year. Your love life looks scintillating for the major part of the year. However, don’t neglect your family amidst all the buzz. Your relationships and attitudes towards your domestic life look set to undergo major changes this year. Be accountable for your responsibilities, and it in turn shall help you avoid conflicts and arguments, says Ganesha. Stress may adversely affect your health, especially post October 2012. Take care while driving and performing mundane tasks around the house.
The year 2012 is likely to mark a significant development on the personal as well as professional front for you. Home and family activities will come to the fore, and you will try your best to fulfil the demands of your loved ones. Some transformations are in store on this front, but they will be for the better, says Ganesha. For singles, chances are bleak for a committed relationship, but remain optimistic and don’t let a personal crisis affect your career. Barring a few glitches, the year 2012 looks set to be quite positive for you. Married ones may be planning a baby. Owing to a major move by Uranus, you may see your belief systems and preferences getting altered, though. Your creativity will peak, and your skills and true potential shall find an outlet. Now, that’s going to be very satisfying! However, be cautious while signing any legal documents or getting into any deals, as a secret clause may lead to misunderstandings, warns Ganesha. Communications, new-age technology and gadgetry will hold your attention like nothing else does. Do take time out to relax and de-stress, though.
Being health-conscious is not new for you, but this may become a passion now, indicates Ganesha. Your sincere attempts to maintain a healthy lifestyle will yield positive results, more than ever, in the year 2012! To help you further, stars will ease off all health-related issues in 2012. Finances, career, love, spirituality and social welfare are other areas that will remain in focus. This year also heralds a prosperous time for bulls, thanks to the optimistic planet Jupiter. Travel, family time, joyous occasions – the truly good things in life will be on offer! Cash inflow will be more than decent, and an inheritance may also be in the offing. You may even be able to arrange funds for your ambitious ventures. Splurging on attaining the luxuries of life is also on the cards. Do guard against over-spending and rash behaviour, though. Love life and family may become a cause of stress. And your inability to handle delicate situations tactfully may worsen the situation, warns Ganesha. Try and resolve conflicts, rather than adding fuel to them. Marrying in 2012 is not a good idea.
In 2012, Ganesha nods at your never-say-die spirit! You may have had some really tough challenges to face in the past few years. If not, then at least some major life-altering adjustments may have taken up your time and energy. Expect things to improve. In 2012, Neptune enters your 10th House. This will boost your spirituality and faith. Matters related to body, health, your personal image, creativity, family and mystical sciences shall be of great interest to you. Barring a few minor issues, your health is likely to be good throughout the year. Don’t be complacent, though! Expect prosperity to get a boost mid-year, thanks to Jupiter. You will have money to spend on the luxuries of life. You may be looking at renovating your living space or may even be re-thinking a relationship. If a friend/ relative is taking up a lot of your time, it’s time to say ‘me first’. Do that and bid them a goodbye, says Ganesha! Guard you and your loved ones against minor accidents. You may also see love and work intermingling. Enjoy!
If you managed to handle events of the last year decently, things will seem easy in comparison in 2012. Expect the year to get better as it progresses towards the latter half, says Ganesha. All said and done, you still need to take a good care of yourself, your health and your loved ones. Health will improve this year, thanks to Neptune’s favourable aspect with your sign, yet you can’t afford to be careless. Home, family, love, spirituality, as always, will surely remain at the centre of your universe, yet you may now see yourself trying to enhance your social network too. Travelling to foreign lands and higher education are distinct possibilities. Personal growth, development and creativity will also take centre-stage. Ganesha cautions you against getting complacent in financial and legal matters, though. Family matters may become burdensome. Ganesha advises you to take up a hobby to get a break from your mundane life. Some unique challenges may also be lined up for your sign this year. Express yourself, wherever needed! Any upheaval in your love life will have a positive bearing in the long run.
The year 2012 looks set to be another happy one for lions, especially till October. Post that as well, there won’t be much to worry, assures Ganesha. Expect your health and energy levels to peak, making it possible to do so much – all that your fertile imagination may have envisaged. Career success is more or less a surety this year, thanks to the optimistic planet of Jupiter. Your social stars will be brilliant. The success and good times will make you confident, and may spur you into taking financial risks. While being aggressive gives you an edge over others, and often tends to bring better gains, being impatient and hasty may lead you into making faulty decisions, cautions Ganesha. The same goes for your love life. It looks set to be tumultuous in the coming time. You may feel emotionally drained or ready to explode. Slow down and first assess what’s damaging your relationship or domestic bliss. The reason may be a third party altogether! You may feel overburdened with responsibilities, but you need to recognize that there are no free lunches in this world, points out Ganesha.
There may have been additions to your life in terms of marriage or subtractions from it in terms of a relationship break-up in the last few years. Challenges were here, there and everywhere for your zodiac sign. The changes lined up for the year 2012 will bring you much-needed respite. Finance, work, health, higher education, foreign travel, career and personal transformation will be in focus this year. You will be conscious about your physical fitness, but don’t over exert yourself, advises Ganesha. Health is still delicate, due to Jupiter’s unfavourable aspect. The same aspect shall be fruitful for your career, though. Your financial position may not be very encouraging. However as the year progresses, expect things to change for the better. Never forget the lessons you’ve learnt in the past; times are changing, and for good. Your love life may continue to go through a testing phase. Look at the positives; the downtime will allow you to assess your needs and mistakes, says Ganesha.